Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Tucson, AZ

576 
WGUS75 KTWC 090339
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
839 PM MST Tue Sep 8 2020

AZC003-019-090600-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-200909T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cochise AZ-Pima AZ-
839 PM MST Tue Sep 8 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS 
EVENING FOR WESTERN COCHISE AND EASTERN PIMA COUNTIES...

At 839 PM MST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 
and 4 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Doppler radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Tanque Verde, Saguaro National Park East and Cascabel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3229 11069 3232 11064 3234 11053 3229 11029
      3217 11027 3218 11045 3218 11049 3218 11068

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

GZ

545 
WGUS75 KTWC 090419
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
919 PM MST Tue Sep 8 2020

AZC003-019-090600-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-200909T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cochise AZ-Pima AZ-
919 PM MST Tue Sep 8 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS 
EVENING FOR WESTERN COCHISE AND EASTERN PIMA COUNTIES...

At 919 PM MST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
that thunderstorms had produced heavy rain across the warned area. 
Between 1 and 4 inches of rain has fallen. Flash flooding is 
ongoing. The Tanque Verde Creek at Chiva Tank as risen to 4.4 feet, 
with a flow of 1580 cfs.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding.

SOURCE...Doppler radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Tanque Verde, Saguaro National Park East and Cascabel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3229 11069 3232 11064 3234 11053 3229 11029
      3217 11027 3218 11045 3218 11049 3218 11068

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

GZ

876 
WGUS75 KTWC 090602
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1102 PM MST Tue Sep 8 2020

AZC003-019-090612-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-200909T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cochise AZ-Pima AZ-
1102 PM MST Tue Sep 8 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR WESTERN COCHISE AND EASTERN 
PIMA COUNTIES...

Flood waters have receded. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

However, elevated flows in the Tanque Verde Wash can be expected the 
next few hours.

LAT...LON 3229 11069 3232 11064 3234 11053 3229 11029
      3217 11027 3218 11045 3218 11049 3218 11068

$$

JD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
219 PM MST Tue Sep 8 2020

.SYNOPSIS...A strong storm system over Utah will bring gusty winds,
much cooler temperatures and scattered showers and thunderstorms into
Wednesday. Temperatures will slowly warm to near normal by the
weekend with a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms near the New
Mexico border.

&&

.DISCUSSION...As of 2 pm the cold front has moved just south of
Prescott and continues to plow southward. A line of convection has
developed right along the front with one severe thunderstorm warning
thus far. Other than that convection has been very limited and the
wind has been a bit tamer than forecast. Both likely the result of
the heavy smoke laying across the region impacting the heating and
resultant mixing. Latest HRRR runs indicating that convection still a
decent bet as far SW as Tucson when the front rolls through this
evening so have left pops in the forecast for the overnight period
with a little adjustment. Weak mid-level cold advection is currently
taking place and that will translate to stronger mid and low level
cold advection this evening behind the frontal passage. The result
will be cooler overnight temps and highs on Wednesday around 8-10
degrees cooler than this afternoon. With the upper low parking itself
over Arizona/Utah border through Wednesday night there remains a
threat of showers and afternoon/early evening thunderstorms east of
Tucson through Wednesday night.

At this time the upper low looks to slowly fill and move Thursday
into Friday. Left a slight chance of showers and storms for the far
eastern areas Thursday as enough moisture and instability should
remain, especially if the low is a bit slower, to allow for that.
Afternoon temperatures only a couple of degrees warmer Thursday and
remaining about 5 degrees cooler than average.

Friday through the weekend ridging will follow the departure of the
upper low with a rebound in temperatures as a result. The ridge not
looking quite as pronounced as earlier with a low level easterly flow
undercutting the ridge. This easterly flow may bring enough moisture
for a few showers and mountain storms far eastern areas each
afternoon through the weekend. Temperatures running within a couple
of degrees of normal Friday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 10/00Z.
SCT-BKN 10-15k ft MSL. A slight chance of -TSRA/-SHRA KTUS eastward
into Wednesday. SFC wind SWLY/WLY 15-25 kts with gusts up to 35 kts
easing to 10-15 kts after 09/05Z. SW winds increasing again after
09/17Z to 10-20 kts through the afternoon. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...An unseasonably deep storm system over southern Utah
will maintain breezy conditions this evening and again Wednesday
afternoon with a chance of some showers and a few thunderstorms from
Tucson eastward. Much cooler temperatures will also move in resulting
in below normal highs Wednesday and Thursday. A slight chance of
residual showers and thunderstorms are possible for eastern areas
Thursday but otherwise, mostly dry and gradually warming temperatures
are expected Thursday into Friday with generally light winds. This
weekend, will be warm with a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms east of Tucson each afternoon through Monday. Winds
will be light Saturday with an easterly breeze developing Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Public...Cerniglia
Aviation...Rasmussen
Fire Weather....Rasmussen

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
714 PM MST Tue Sep 8 2020

AZZ507-511-513-514-090315-
Santa Catalina and Rincon Mountains including Mount
Lemmon/Summerhaven-Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains
including Mount Graham-
714 PM MST Tue Sep 8 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA AND
NORTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM MST...

At 714 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles east of Saguaro National Park East, or 18 miles north of
Benson, moving east at 10 to 15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Muleshoe Ranch Preserve and Cascabel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 11053 3233 11052 3240 11013 3207 11012
TIME...MOT...LOC 0214Z 269DEG 10KT 3225 11043

Meyer