Wind Advisory 10, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
305 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

.DISCUSSION...
The main forecast concerns this morning are the continued potential
for severe thunderstorms across eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas late this afternoon into the evening, and fire weather
potential this afternoon to the west of Highway 75.

Showers and a few thunderstorms continue to expand across
northeast Oklahoma and into far northwest Arkansas early this
morning, in response to a 50 to 55 kt low level jet across
northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas and an upper level speed
maximum overhead. The shower/thunderstorm axis should gradually
shift to the south and east through the morning and into the
afternoon, as a disturbance and the low level jet, albeit
slightly weaker, both shift eastward.

One of bigger questions and sources of uncertainty today will be
how much of the existing cloud cover erodes during the afternoon
and the resulting effect on high temperatures and instability
values. Confidence is highest in some clearing during the
afternoon to the west of Highway 75 in northeast Oklahoma
following the passage of the disturbance, leading to the
likelihood of temperatures being 10 to 15 degrees above normal. In
addition to the very warm temperatures, good mixing should occur
with the increased sun, aiding in the potential for advisory level
wind gusts at the surface and lower humidities. A Wind Advisory
will be issued for areas of northeast Oklahoma most likely to see
increased afternoon sun, with some potential for the need for it
to be expanded on later shifts depending on how far east the
clearing extends. Regarding the fire weather potential, the only
thing holding back a Red Flag Warning for parts of northeast
Oklahoma is the humidities, which are just above criteria in parts
of Osage and Pawnee counties. Will cover the fire weather threat
with a Fire Danger Statement for now, but humidity trends will be
another thing for the day shift to watch.

As mentioned earlier, the amount of instability, especially
surface based, that develops later today is the main question
as to the potential for severe thunderstorms ahead of the
approaching cold front. With some showers and thunderstorms likely
to extend into the afternoon, reinforcing the cloud cover, this
should keep temperatures down and reduce instability for much of
the day in southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. SREF MUCAPE
probabilities would lend some credence to this thought, as does
the lack of much late afternoon/evening development on the latest
HRRR runs. While the severe weather threat is definitely there due
to the strong wind fields and potential for rotating storms, it
is a highly conditional threat, dependent on enough instability
developing.

All the higher impact weather is crammed in the first 18 to 24
hours of the forecast, with largely quiet weather expected through
the remainder of the period. After a post-frontal cooldown
tomorrow, expect rising temperatures into the middle to latter
part of next week as upper level ridging builds into the area.
National blended temperature guidance looks too low by the middle
of the week, given the expectation of sunny skies and on at least
Thursday, a favorable westerly wind direction for compressional
warming. Increased shower and thunderstorm chances with the
approach of another storm system exist just after this forecast
period, in time for next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  40  62  39 /  40  10   0   0
FSM   70  44  63  37 /  60  40   0   0
MLC   75  42  62  38 /  60  10   0   0
BVO   75  39  63  37 /  30  10   0   0
FYV   64  39  57  32 /  70  50   0   0
BYV   64  41  58  37 /  70  60   0   0
MKO   72  40  61  37 /  60  20   0   0
MIO   68  37  59  37 /  50  20   0   0
F10   73  41  62  37 /  60  10   0   0
HHW   76  46  63  37 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for OKZ054>056-059-060-064-065.

AR...None.
&&

LONG TERM....22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
307 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151130-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
307 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Will Not Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY through TUESDAY...No Hazards.
WEDNESDAY through THURSDAY...High Wind Potential.
FRIDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
After a cool Sunday in the wake of tonight's cold front, warmer
temperatures are expected through the end of the upcoming work
week. South to southwest winds will increase on Wednesday and
Thursday, with gusts near 25 mph expected in northeast Oklahoma
and far northwest Arkansas.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.