Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
622 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Ongoing convection will continue to produce periodic flight
impacts across E OK / NW AR terminals through the morning hours. A
decrease in coverage is expected by afternoon and largely confined
nearer the NW AR terminals. VFR ceilings will mainly persist
outside of the convection though brief IFR ceilings have been
noted this morning and may briefly spread across terminals. Will
refrain from any fog or lowered ceilings tonight w/ expectation
of sustained winds but this will need to be monitored.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 249 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms have developed this morning across
north-central Oklahoma in a zone of isentropic lift as
a 50kt low level jet noses into that area. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms also continue across eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas as well. The activity currently over
north-central Oklahoma will continue to spread to the
southeast through the morning hours with additional
showers and thunderstorms developing across the area as well.
While organized severe weather is not expected with these
storms. The strongest storms will be capable of producing
strong gusty winds and locally heavy rains. This activity
is expected to spread east of the area by early afternoon.

The big story over the weekend will be the return of
the summer heat and humidity with temperatures
expected to top out in the 90s across much of eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Heat index values will
likely exceed heat advisory criteria (105 degrees0) across
portions of eastern Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas
this weekend and into the early part of next week. The
more summer-like weather will be the result of an
upper level ridge building over the Southern Plains.

The weather pattern will once again become more active
mid to late week as the upper level ridge retrogrades to
the west. This will allow a series of shortwaves to
the affect the area and bring the potential for showers
and storms to the area once again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   90  76  97  75 /  70   0   0   0
FSM   86  72  96  74 /  60   0   0   0
MLC   91  76  95  75 /  40   0   0   0
BVO   88  74  95  74 /  70  10   0   0
FYV   83  71  92  73 /  70  10  10   0
BYV   85  70  94  73 /  60  10  10   0
MKO   85  73  94  74 /  70   0   0   0
MIO   86  73  94  74 /  70  10  10   0
F10   89  74  94  74 /  50   0   0   0
HHW   94  74  96  75 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
439 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-080945-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
439 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...northeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Extreme southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This afternoon.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas through early
afternoon as warm front pushes north across the region.
Some of the thunderstorms could become strong to marginally
severe with strong gusty winds and hail the concern. Locally
heavy rainfall will also be possible.

This afternoon, Southerly winds will increase across northeast
Oklahoma with gusts to around 30 mph possible. Heat index
values of around 102 degrees will be possible this afternoon
across extreme southeast Oklahoma.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...High Wind Potential...
Dangerous Heat Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Summer time heat and humidity makes a return over the weekend
with high temperatures expected in the 90s across much
of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Heat index values
this weekend will be around 105 degree across portions of
eastern Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas.

The chances of showers and thunderstorms return next
week as a series of upper level disturbances affect the region.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
542 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020

OKZ057-058-062-063-071115-
Craig OK-Delaware OK-Ottawa OK-Mayes OK-
542 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CRAIG...WESTERN DELAWARE...
WESTERN OTTAWA AND NORTHEASTERN MAYES COUNTIES UNTIL 615 AM CDT...

At 542 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 12 miles north of White Oak to 3 miles southwest of
Salina. Movement was northeast at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Vinita...                         Salina...
Afton...                          Langley...
Adair...                          Welch...
Bernice...                        Ketchum...
Spavinaw...                       Bluejacket...
Disney...                         Big Cabin...
Pensacola...                      Hoot Owl...
Cherokee State Park...            Cleora...
Chloeta...                        White Oak...
Spavinaw State Park...            Strang...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 271 and 297.

LAT...LON 3624 9488 3622 9524 3682 9536 3700 9498
      3700 9496
TIME...MOT...LOC 1042Z 228DEG 15KT 3679 9529 3626 9520

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
549 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0539 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 S ADAIR               36.36N 95.27W
08/07/2020  M58 MPH          MAYES              OK   MESONET

&&

RJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
644 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020

OKZ057-058-062-063-068-071230-
Craig OK-Cherokee OK-Delaware OK-Ottawa OK-Mayes OK-
644 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CRAIG...WESTERN
DELAWARE...WESTERN OTTAWA...EASTERN MAYES AND NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 730 AM CDT...

At 643 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 4 miles northwest of Welch to 3 miles northeast of
Peggs. Movement was east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Miami...                          Vinita...
Salina...                         Afton...
Langley...                        Kansas...
Welch...                          Bernice...
Ketchum...                        Spavinaw...
Bluejacket...                     Disney...
Oaks...                           Pensacola...
Hoot Owl...                       Cherokee State Park...
Rose...                           Bernice State Park...
Leach...                          Cleora...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 281 and 304.

LAT...LON 3612 9480 3611 9513 3695 9523 3700 9498
      3700 9489
TIME...MOT...LOC 1143Z 234DEG 14KT 3692 9516 3612 9506

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
655 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S ADAIR               36.38N 95.27W
08/07/2020                   MAYES              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TWO POWER POLES SNAPPED AND TWO POLES LEANING NEAR COUNTY
            ROADS N 435 AND WEST 460.

&&

RJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
728 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020

OKZ064-065-071315-
Okfuskee OK-Creek OK-
728 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CREEK AND
NORTHWESTERN OKFUSKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 815 AM CDT...

At 728 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles north of
Prague, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Boley...                          Paden...
Welty...

LAT...LON 3557 9662 3569 9662 3564 9640 3546 9647
      3545 9649 3544 9648 3543 9651 3545 9654
      3546 9654 3545 9656 3548 9663
TIME...MOT...LOC 1228Z 296DEG 17KT 3559 9668