Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
634 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR to VFR conditions are expected Tonight even with scattered
severe thunderstorms affecting KMLC and the western Arkansas
sites through 6z. VFR conditions are anticipated on Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 231 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020/

..SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

DISCUSSION...
Atmosphere has become extremely unstable this afternoon with
MLCAPES approaching 4500 J/KG just west of the area across north-
central Oklahoma. Cold front currently moving into far northwest
Osage county with pre-frontal boundary located slightly further
south, near a Ralston, Copan line. Latest CAMs and surface
analysis trends indicate scattered supercells will quickly
develop along frontal boundary in the 3-5 PM range just north of
I-44 with 0-6 KM deep layer shear remaining in 40 to 50 knot
range. Very large hail to baseballs and damaging winds to 70 mph
will be possible in the stronger cells. Although low level wind
fields in the 0-1 KM range are not overly impressive, given the
extreme instability, any deviant storm motion, with a more
southern track, would likely enhance SRH/tornado threat. In
addition, winds are little more backed/stronger across far
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas near warm front, where a
tornado or two will also be possible. Storms will likely become
more linear with time with multiple strong to severe thunderstorm
clusters pushing into southeast Oklahoma and northeast Arkansas
this evening, transitioning towards a damaging wind threat.

Significantly cooler weather expected behind front Tuesday into
Wednesday as surface high pressure builds over the region. Models
remain in good agreement with stronger upper shortwave moving out
of the northern Rockies and into the central Plains on Thursday.
Shower/thunderstorm chances will begin to ramp up Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night with widespread rain expected with
FROPA. NBM guidance looks good for the remainder of the extended
periods.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
522 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-051000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
522 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING...VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Mainly Southeast of Interstate 44.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms have developed late this
afternoon along and just ahead of a strong cold front that is
nearing the Interstate 44 corridor. A few tornadoes, with one or
two strong tornadoes, are possible into the early evening hours.
Very large hail to baseball size and winds to 70 miles an hour
will also be possible with the strongest storms. Locally heavy
rainfall may also result in some localized flooding issues.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY and SUNDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
After a dry Tuesday and Wednesday, thunderstorm chances along with
a severe weather threat return for Thursday into early Friday.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
642 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0639 PM     HAIL             6 SE PRYOR              36.25N 95.24W
05/04/2020  E2.50 INCH       MAYES              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTED IN SPORTSMEN ACRES

&&

MAT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
650 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

OKZ065-066-050015-
Okmulgee OK-Okfuskee OK-
650 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN OKMULGEE AND CENTRAL
OKFUSKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

At 650 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles northeast of
Castle, moving southeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Okemah...                         Boley...
Castle...                         Clearview...
Pharoah...                        Bryant...
Mason...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 219 and
234.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northeastern
and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3548 9648 3563 9638 3551 9599 3533 9609
TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 294DEG 32KT 3552 9635

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
654 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PRYOR                   36.31N 95.32W
05/04/2020                   MAYES              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STREET FLOODING IN PRYOR

&&

MAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
656 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             3 N LOCUST GROVE        36.24N 95.17W
05/04/2020  E2.00 INCH       MAYES              OK   STORM CHASER

&&

MAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
659 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     HAIL             2 SW TIAWAH             36.24N 95.59W
05/04/2020  E1.75 INCH       ROGERS             OK   PUBLIC

&&

RJS

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