Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
353 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop soon across
northeast Oklahoma just ahead of a cold front, with the activity
building south into southeast Oklahoma over the next 2-3 hours.
Large hail and damaging winds will be main severe weather threats,
with an isolated tornado threat across mainly far southeast
Oklahoma. The biggest limiting factor for tornadoes is the lack of
deep low level moisture, although surface dewpoints may reach the
lower 60s near the Red River just ahead of the storms. Storms
will move east of the area by late evening, but a few showers will
remain possible overnight mainly across northwest Arkansas and
far northeast Oklahoma.

After a dry and mild weekend, shower and thunderstorm chances will
return late Sunday night and Monday as an upper level disturbance
moves across the area. A cold front will move across the area late
Tuesday and Tuesday evening bringing another round of showers and
storms, along with the potential for severe weather.

Dry and mild weather will return for the latter half of next week.
The GFS is more aggressive than the ECMWF with another system at
the tail end of the forecast period, and will side with the ECMWF
for now keeping next Friday dry.

Raised pops from the National Blend of Models forecast for late
Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   52  73  48  77 /  60   0   0   0
FSM   54  73  48  76 / 100  10   0   0
MLC   53  74  47  77 /  50   0   0   0
BVO   50  73  43  76 /  70  10   0   0
FYV   51  69  44  73 / 100  10   0   0
BYV   51  67  45  71 /  90  10   0   0
MKO   52  72  47  75 /  80   0   0   0
MIO   52  70  45  73 / 100  10   0   0
F10   52  73  47  76 /  50   0   0   0
HHW   53  74  48  76 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....05

PLATE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
458 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
458 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS EVENING...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well
as much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
    AREA...Far Southeast Oklahoma.
    ONSET...After 6 pm.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
    AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing in eastern Oklahoma...after 7 pm in Arkansas.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Along and South of Interstate 40.

FLASH FLOOD and HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Mid Evening.

DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms have developed over northeast
Oklahoma and will continue to build south early this evening, with
storms moving into western Arkansas after about 7 pm. Instability
and wind shear both are greater farther to the south, making the
threat of significant severe weather greater along and south of
I-40. Conditions do appear favorable for both large hail and
locally damaging wind gust potential. Hail to golfball, and
possibly tennis ball, size is possible with the most intense
storms. Additionally, some storms across far southeast Oklahoma will
have a limited tornadic potential, especially near the Red River
valley. Storms will move further east by late evening with the
severe weather risk ending by midnight. Locally heavy rainfall is
possible across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Given the
recent rainfall, any heavier amounts could quickly increase flash
flooding concerns.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...No Hazards.
SUNDAY through MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY through THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Gusty northerly winds which develop Friday evening will
persist into the day Saturday. Dry and mild conditions are
expected through the weekend, with thunderstorm chances returning
Monday into Tuesday.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
503 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     HAIL             3 ESE BARTLESVILLE      36.73N 95.93W
04/24/2020  E0.75 INCH       WASHINGTON         OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY 60 AND BISON ROAD

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
506 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     HAIL             BARTLESVILLE            36.75N 95.98W
04/24/2020  E1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MEDIA REPORT OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON SOUTH SIDE OF
            BARTLESVILLE.

&&

CAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
511 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020

OKZ060-061-064-067-242245-
Tulsa OK-Rogers OK-Creek OK-Wagoner OK-
511 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ROGERS...
NORTHEASTERN CREEK...NORTHWESTERN WAGONER AND SOUTHERN TULSA COUNTIES
UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 510 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 4 miles north of Sapulpa to 3 miles northwest of
Mounds. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Penny to nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be
possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Broken Arrow...
Sand Springs...                   Bixby...
Sapulpa...                        Jenks...
Glenpool...                       Coweta...
Catoosa...                        Kiefer...
Mounds...                         Kellyville...
Jenks Riverside Airport...        Oneta...
Liberty...                        Leonard...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 203 and 241.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Tulsa.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3607 9622 3623 9569 3593 9568 3586 9605
      3586 9619 3583 9619 3581 9628
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 246DEG 35KT 3606 9609 3590 9613

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
512 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020

OKZ067-070-242245-
Muskogee OK-Wagoner OK-
512 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WAGONER AND NORTHERN
MUSKOGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 512 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles north of
Oktaha, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Muskogee...                       Fort Gibson...
Okay...                           Oktaha...
Summit...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
southeastern, northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3585 9523 3583 9525 3582 9527 3581 9526
      3581 9519 3574 9512 3574 9513 3555 9548
      3555 9551 3570 9561 3590 9528
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 238DEG 34KT 3566 9549

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
513 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020

OKZ071-242245-
McIntosh OK-
513 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MCINTOSH COUNTY
UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 513 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Lake Eufaula
State Park, moving east at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Checotah...                       Lake Eufaula State Park...
Onapa...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 256 and
273.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
southeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3552 9535 3538 9535 3533 9566 3548 9567
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 261DEG 25KT 3540 9557