Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
144 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorm are expected to develop later
this afternoon across northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas as a weak surface trof moves into the region.
The cap has pretty well eroded across this region with
surface based cape expected to be between 1500 to 2000 j/kg
late this afternoon. Some of these storms could become
strong to severe with hail to the size of quarters and
wind gusts to around 60 mph possible. This activity is
expected to diminish this evening as is moves into a more
stable environment and the surface boundary weakens
considerably.

The next chance of showers and thunderstorms will come
Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Strong isentropic
lift is forecast to develop across eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas Tuesday night as the low level jet
strengthens in advance of a mid-level low moving out of
the Southern Rockies into the Plains. The mid-level
low will move across Oklahoma Wednesday into Wednesday
night before exiting to the east Thursday morning.
The associated surface low is set track across southern
Oklahoma during this time. The best chances for surface
based thunderstorms will be Wednesday afternoon and
evening across southeast Oklahoma and west-central
Arkansas. This is where the greatest potential for
severe thunderstorms will exist with large hail and
gusty winds the main concern. However, the elevated storms
across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas will also
have the potential to be severe with large hail the main
concern. Heavy rain will also be a concern during this
time with most of the area seeing 1 to 2 inches of rain
with locally higher amounts possible.

After a brief respite, the chances of showers and thunderstorms
return Thursday night into Friday as a cold front sweeps
through the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   49  76  56  68 /  30   0  80  90
FSM   50  78  55  69 /  20   0  80  90
MLC   52  78  58  69 /  10  10  80  90
BVO   48  75  53  66 /  10   0  80  90
FYV   49  75  53  65 /  40   0  60  90
BYV   47  72  51  64 /  40   0  60  90
MKO   49  76  55  67 /  30   0  80  90
MIO   46  72  53  64 /  10   0  60  90
F10   51  77  56  69 /  30   0  90  90
HHW   52  77  58  70 /  10  10  50  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

LONG TERM....10

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
341 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

OKZ057-058-202130-
Craig OK-Ottawa OK-
341 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CRAIG AND CENTRAL
OTTAWA COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 341 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles northeast of
Welch, moving east at 40 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Miami...                          Commerce...
Welch...                          Wyandotte...
Narcissa...                       Ottawa...
Peoria...                         Twin Bridges State Park...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 302 and 319.

LAT...LON 3694 9462 3668 9462 3686 9511 3696 9507
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 284DEG 33KT 3690 9503