Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
333 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020

.DISCUSSION...
88D network over the southern plains sampling 50-60 knot low
level jet at 850mb from NW Texas into central OK with warm front
extending from SE OK to an apparent sfc low northwest of OKC.
Upglide over the boundary continues to force scattered showers and
a few storms across NW AR and NE OK, however the more significant
convection remains tied to the low level jet axis and these
strong to severe storms will expand into northeast OK over the
next couple of hours with mainly a large hail threat. This will
also produce an axis of relatively heavy rainfall along and just
south of the OK/KS border and given saturated soil, could lead to
some localized flooding. Low level jet support will gradually wane
through the morning as the upper level wave quickly moves off to
the east with thunderstorm chances mostly ending by 18z.

Will eventually see some sun this afternoon with warm temperatures
though lingering clouds may keep them down some across parts of NW
AR. With generally light winds and a moist boundary layer, areas
of fog look possible especially where the heavier rains fall this
morning. This signal presents itself in much of the high-res data
and at least some potential for dense fog may exist. Otherwise
will see warmer temperatures Wed/Thu as mid level heights build.
Low level thermal ridge will be positioned overhead Thursday and
with a downslope component to low level flow, temps may reach
near record levels in some areas, though there is a possibility
that thicker high clouds could limit the warming.

Thunderstorm chances will return Thursday night near the OK/KS
border as low level jet begins to strengthen in advance of next
upper level low moving out of the southwest U.S. and sfc boundary
stalls just to our north. Much of any potential convection may end
up north however as strong capping looks likely across eastern OK
and western AR during that time. Thunderstorm chances along with
severe weather potential look to increase by Friday as the system
ejects into the plains. Models have now come into better agreement
with sweeping the low to the east by Saturday with dry and cooler
conditions this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  47  78  58 /  80   0   0   0
FSM   75  48  77  57 /  70   0   0   0
MLC   77  49  79  61 /  20   0   0   0
BVO   67  46  76  56 /  80   0   0   0
FYV   69  46  73  58 / 100   0   0   0
BYV   62  45  73  56 / 100   0   0   0
MKO   72  46  77  58 /  70   0   0   0
MIO   64  45  74  56 / 100   0   0   0
F10   72  48  79  60 /  50   0   0   0
HHW   80  52  78  60 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...07

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
352 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020

OKZ054-240945-
Osage OK-
352 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
445 AM CDT...

At 351 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 2 miles north of Newkirk to 4 miles west of Marland.
Movement was east at 45 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fairfax...                        Shidler...
Burbank...                        Grainola...
Foraker...                        Pearsonia...
Southern Kaw Lake...              Webb City...
Apperson...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3700 9632 3656 9652 3659 9691 3660 9692
      3659 9694 3660 9704 3666 9706 3669 9706
      3670 9703 3668 9694 3675 9689 3674 9683
      3677 9682 3678 9675 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0851Z 265DEG 39KT 3692 9704 3654 9722

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
419 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020

OKZ054-059-240945-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
419 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OSAGE AND WESTERN PAWNEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 445 AM CDT...

At 419 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles west of Fairfax to 6 miles southwest of
Ralston to 2 miles northeast of Morrison. Movement was east at 40
mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawnee...                         Fairfax...
Ralston...                        Blackburn...
Maramec...                        Skedee...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3644 9693 3655 9690 3657 9689 3660 9689
      3660 9641 3642 9641 3623 9659 3628 9693
      3633 9693 3633 9701 3634 9702
TIME...MOT...LOC 0919Z 266DEG 35KT 3659 9682 3644 9682 3632 9698

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
439 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020

OKZ054-055-059-241030-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-Washington OK-
439 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OSAGE...WASHINGTON AND CENTRAL
PAWNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 AM CDT...

At 439 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 8 miles west of Elgin to 10 miles east of Fairfax to
near Skedee. Movement was east at 50 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bartlesville...                   Pawhuska...
Pawnee...                         Skiatook...
Hominy...                         Dewey...
Cleveland...                      Barnsdall...
Copan...                          Ramona...
Wynona...                         Ochelata...
Avant...                          Blackburn...
Elgin...                          Skedee...
Bigheart...                       Bartlesville Municipal Airport...
Osage Hills State Park...         Pearsonia...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3700 9579 3694 9580 3694 9581 3670 9582
      3642 9596 3642 9600 3634 9600 3630 9602
      3633 9680 3659 9659 3700 9649
TIME...MOT...LOC 0939Z 259DEG 42KT 3699 9643 3661 9652 3636 9670