Alert archive / Arkansas / Special Weather Statements in 2020

Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

March 19, 2020Sebastian County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this special weather statement at Mar 19, 2020, 7:28 PM CDT for Sebastian County, Arkansas. It was in force for 32 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 19, 2020, 7:28 PM CDT (00:28 UTC)
Expired: Mar 19, 2020, 8:00 PM CDT
In force: 32 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK

County Sebastian County, AR

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 29 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 0.5 hours before the alert went out and 192 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1127 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 62 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 254 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 293 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Mar 19, 6:48 PM CDT, 40 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 19, 6:48 PM CDT, 40 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
648 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms should continue to push off to
the east northeast and exit the CWA over the next couple of hours.
Behind the precip...a high level cloud deck with breezy south to
southwesterly winds are expected into the overnight hours ahead of
a cold front forecast to push through the CWA late tonight. Behind
the cold front...breezy to gusty west becoming northwesterly winds
and MVFR ceilings look to spread across the CWA late tonight and
Friday morning. By mid/late afternoon...ceilings look to lift back
to VFR across Northeast Oklahoma while MVFR ceilings are forecast
to hang on through the end of the TAF period across Northwest
Arkansas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 309 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020/

DISCUSSION...
The main forecast concern today is the ongoing severe weather and
flooding potential across areas to the southeast of I-44. The
counties along I-44 have been dropped from the Flash Flood Watch,
with the rest of it remaining intact.

A broken line of showers and thunderstorms continues to push
eastward across eastern Oklahoma, with the most intense cells
confined to areas along and south of I-40. This part of the
forecast area has not been as worked over convectively this
morning as points farther north as exhibited by the pool of
1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE sitting in southeast Oklahoma, as well as
parts of the Arkansas River Valley. 0-1 km shear of 30 to 40 kts
in the same area continues to support tornadoes with stronger
cells that can stay somewhat isolated. Most of the area likely to
be affected by the ongoing activity avoided the heavier rains last
night, but flash flooding will still remain possible with any
locally heavier amounts. This line is likely to shift east of the
forecast area by mid evening, with no further development likely
afterward.

The cold front will move through late tonight and into tomorrow,
leading to much colder temperatures to close the work week and
open the weekend. A late season freeze continues to look probable
for much of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas Friday
night and into Saturday morning.

After the brief lull in the precipitation, an active weather
pattern will return late in the weekend and into early next week.
Multiple chances for showers will exist from Saturday night
through Tuesday night, with isolated thunderstorms also possible
Monday night and into Tuesday. Temperatures will also be very warm
beginning Tuesday and continuing through much of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   42  49  30  54 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   52  58  36  59 /  40  10   0   0
MLC   47  53  34  57 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   39  47  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   47  50  29  56 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   48  52  30  54 /  40   0   0   0
MKO   46  51  32  55 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   42  46  28  52 /  10   0   0   0
F10   44  50  32  55 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   53  57  39  59 /  70  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-062-
     063-065>076.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>056-059>061.

AR...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

AVIATION.....20

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 19, 4:41 PM CDT, 2 hours 47 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
441 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
441 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND FLOODING POTENTIAL CONTINUES...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Southeast and East Central Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Southeast and East Central Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast of Interstate 44.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northwest of Interstate 44.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorms are ongoing late this afternoon across
portions of southeast and east central Oklahoma. These storms will
continue to push eastward through the rest of the afternoon and
into the evening. The primary severe weather threats will be
damaging winds to 70 mph and ping pong ball sized hail, but
a few tornadoes may also occur with any thunderstorms that are
able to remain isolated.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of the area to
the southeast of Interstate 44, as additional locally heavy
rainfall over saturated soils could lead to quick runoff and flash
flooding.

For the remainder of the afternoon, southwesterly winds will
continue to gust to near 40 mph across parts of northeast Oklahoma
to the northwest of Interstate 44.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Cold air will move into the region following the passage of
tonight's cold front. Northerly winds will gust in the 25 to 30
mph range across northeast Oklahoma tomorrow behind the front. A
late season freeze is also likely to occur for a good portion of
northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas tomorrow night and
into Saturday morning.

A couple of upper level disturbances toward the latter part of the
weekend and into early next week will bring increasing chances for
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Mar 19, 6:20 PM CDT, 1 hour 8 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
620 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

ARZ011-020-192345-
Madison AR-Franklin AR-
620 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MADISON AND
NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

At 620 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles east of
Fern, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
St. Paul...                       Cass...
Saint Paul...                     Pettigrew...
Fern...                           Boston...
Dutton...                         Jethro...
Barnes...                         Redding...
Watalula...                       Brashears...
Turners Bend...                   Lonelm...
Taft...                           Cravens...
Paradise...

This includes Interstate 40 in Arkansas between mile markers 29 and
30.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northwestern
and west central Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3577 9370 3560 9370 3552 9394 3566 9404
      3566 9398 3570 9398 3570 9397 3572 9396
      3573 9395 3573 9391 3574 9391 3575 9389
      3576 9390 3592 9364 3576 9353
TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 240DEG 29KT 3564 9392

Special weather statement, Mar 19, 6:42 PM CDT, 46 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
642 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

ARZ029-OKZ076-200015-
Sebastian AR-Le Flore OK-
642 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SEBASTIAN AND EAST
CENTRAL LE FLORE COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

At 642 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles west of
Heavener, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Poteau...                         Heavener...
Wister...                         Howe...
Hartford...                       Heavener Runestone State Park...
Lake Wister State Park...         Patterson...
Hodgen...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for west central
Arkansas...and southeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3495 9435 3496 9437 3494 9439 3495 9441
      3493 9443 3493 9444 3486 9445 3477 9474
      3493 9482 3508 9442 3495 9433
TIME...MOT...LOC 2342Z 245DEG 39KT 3486 9470

Special weather statement, Mar 19, 6:53 PM CDT, 35 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
653 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

ARZ020-200015-
Franklin AR-
653 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY
UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

At 653 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles north of
Wiederkehr Village, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Wiederkehr Village...             Taft...

This includes Interstate 40 in Arkansas between mile markers 39 and
42.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for west central
Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3546 9371 3545 9375 3562 9384 3569 9370
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 245DEG 39KT 3557 9372

Special weather statement, Mar 19, 7:00 PM CDT, 28 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
700 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

OKZ049-053-200030-
Choctaw OK-Pushmataha OK-
700 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PUSHMATAHA AND
EASTERN CHOCTAW COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 700 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 8 miles southeast of Cloudy to 9 miles south of
Sawyer. Movement was east at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Hugo...                           Fort Towson...
Sawyer...                         Hugo Lake State Park...
Raymond Gary State Park...        Grant...
Ord...                            Corinne...
Fallon...                         Sobol...
Swink...                          Frogville...
Huskey...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for southeastern
Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3387 9546 3389 9546 3387 9550 3389 9551
      3388 9554 3393 9556 3445 9511 3444 9505
      3425 9505 3424 9515 3394 9516 3396 9523
      3389 9526 3390 9526 3391 9527 3387 9529
      3389 9533 3387 9534
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 261DEG 8KT 3424 9515 3388 9541

69

Special weather statement, Mar 19, 7:07 PM CDT, 21 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
707 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

ARZ029-200030-
Sebastian AR-
707 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN SEBASTIAN COUNTY UNTIL
730 PM CDT...

At 706 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Hartford,
moving northeast at 55 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Mansfield...                      Hartford...
Huntington...                     Midland...
Washburn...                       Patterson...
Milltown...                       Arkola...
Crossroads...                     Witcherville...
Liberty...                        Dayton...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for west central
Arkansas...and southeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3514 9403 3514 9414 3510 9414 3508 9420
      3508 9422 3506 9425 3506 9423 3497 9423
      3495 9434 3496 9437 3494 9439 3495 9441
      3493 9443 3494 9445 3510 9444 3521 9410
      3517 9403
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 240DEG 46KT 3503 9440

Special weather statement, Mar 19, 7:28 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
728 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

ARZ020-029-200100-
Sebastian AR-Franklin AR-
728 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN AND EAST
CENTRAL SEBASTIAN COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 728 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Echo, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Branch...                         Washburn...
Burnville...                      Fort Chaffee...
Milltown...                       Crossroads...
Dayton...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for west central
Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3531 9392 3523 9392 3523 9403 3514 9403
      3514 9414 3510 9414 3510 9416 3509 9416
      3509 9418 3508 9420 3517 9427 3532 9392
      3532 9390
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 239DEG 49KT 3514 9414

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 19, 7:00 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pushmataha	30 min
Mar 19, 7:05 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Cherokee	13 hr
Mar 19, 7:34 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	LeFlore	26 min
Mar 19, 9:07 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Sequoyah	6 hr
Mar 19, 9:16 PM CDT	Wind Advisory	TSA	Pawnee, Washington	10 hr
Mar 20, 3:30 AM CDT	River Flood Advisory	TSA	Muskogee	53 hr
Mar 20, 3:50 PM CDT	Freeze Warning	TSA	Adair, Cherokee, Craig, Creek, Delaware, McIntosh and 11 more	18 hr
Mar 19, 7:07 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Sebastian	23 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Arkansas, 2020 Every special weather statement in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.