Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1231 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is timing
potential convective impacts at each of the terminals, with
multiple rounds of TSRA likely to affect each site through the end
of the valid TAF period. Ongoing storms in central and southwest
OK will be most likely to affect MLC and eventually FSM in the
next 2 to 5 hours, with additional development possible farther
north early this morning that may affect the remaining terminals.
As we move into the daytime, additional storms will develop
through the morning and the afternoon, with no true discernible
break in potential activity for terminals in NE OK and far NW AR.
Expect potential for IFR conditions in the TSRA, as well as strong
wind gusts, especially for storms this afternoon and evening at
MLC/FSM. VRB wind groups may be required in future TAFs at these
two sites. Late in the period, winds will shift to a north to
northwesterly direction at the NE OK terminals and a westerly
direction at MLC/FSM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 943 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Evening severe storms remain focused across western OK with
eastward progress minimal as of yet. Regional VWP at KTLX / KFDR
show a marked increase in the low level jet and renewed convection
across TX Panhandle and north TX mark zones of increasing lift
which will eventually spread eastward later tonight into Wed
morning. In the near term the sfc warm currently extends into far
SE OK and a corridor immediately north of this boundary would
yield a favorable zone for convective expansion, however, as the
night progresses stronger lift will shift northward warranting the
current high precip chances. Sufficient elevated instability and
effective shear will maintain a risk of severe weather through the
overnight hours. Update will make minor adjustments to precip
chances with higher chances into eastern OK and lesser chances
across portions of western AR through the overnight hours.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
457 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-221030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
457 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Primarily west of a line from Bartlesville to McAlester.
	ONSET...After midnight.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After midnight.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms will spread into eastern Oklahoma by late evening
and expand in coverage and spread into western Arkansas
through the overnight hours.  Sufficient instability along with
strengthening winds aloft will support severe storm potential
across portions of eastern Oklahoma. Initial storms late this
evening may pose a risk of both large hail and locally strong
winds, however the risk will transition more toward large hail
and locally heavy rainfall through the late night hours.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm and Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY through MONDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing early
Wednesday and continued storm development is likely through
the day especially north of Interstate 40.  The stronger
storms will pose a risk of large hail with a lesser risk of
locally strong winds.  Heavy rainfall will increase flooding
concerns across much of northeast Oklahoma through northwest
Arkansas.  The potential for both flash flooding and main
stem river flooding will exist.
Storms will likely decrease in coverage across southeast
Oklahoma by early afternoon.  Any prolonged period of clearing
will raise the likelihood of stronger instability spreading
into southeast Oklahoma ahead of an advancing dryline.
Storms developing along the dryline by late afternoon or
early evening will likely become severe and pose a risk of
tornadoes, large hail, and locally damaging winds.  These
storms will spread through southeast Oklahoma and west
central Arkansas through the late evening hours.
A brief period of dry weather returns for Thursday with
thunderstorm chances increasing late Thursday night through
Friday.  Dry weather return for the upcoming weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.