Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
214 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Convection continues to expand this afternoon ahead of strong cold
front which has pushed into NE OK early this afternoon. Conditions
remain supportive of severe weather potential this afternoon
through early evening ahead of the surging cold front. The
highest conditional environment remains across SE OK and possibly
into west central AR before the front passes. Transient
supercells with a large hail / wind potential will be the greatest
concern with a lower, yet non zero, chance for tornadoes. Strong
post frontal winds will gradually relax overnight and sufficient
clearing is expected to allow a light freeze across portions of NE
OK / far NW AR.

Unseasonably cold temperatures will prevail Monday through Tuesday
with a light freeze possible both Monday and Tuesday nights, with
the most favorable cold sfc pattern likely Tuesday morning.
Confidence continues to increase in a band of light precip
expanding along mid level frontal forcing Monday night through
Tuesday morning. Fcst will retain a rain / snow mix as any
thickening mid level cloud cover will likely keep sfc temps in the
mid to upper 30s, however reports of snowflakes early Tuesday are
likely.

Temps begin to moderate by late week and likely return to near
normal by next weekend. Extended data have differing solutions on
extent of light precip with either a weak late week front and/or
return warm advection precip. Either way low precip chances are
warranted into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   31  49  35  49 /  10  10  30  30
FSM   34  53  39  52 /  70  10  20  20
MLC   33  51  36  51 /  10  10  20  30
BVO   31  49  33  49 /  10  20  20  20
FYV   30  49  33  48 /  80  10  20  20
BYV   30  49  33  48 /  80  10  20  20
MKO   32  49  35  48 /  20  10  30  30
MIO   30  48  33  49 /  30  20  20  20
F10   32  49  35  47 /   0  10  30  30
HHW   36  54  38  55 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
     OKZ054>070.

     Wind Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>074.

AR...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
     ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Wind Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-010.

&&

LONG TERM....07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
450 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
450 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Far Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing...ending by 8 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northwest Arkansas through Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing...ending by 8 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northwest Arkansas through Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing...ending by mid evening.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing...diminishing by late evening.

DISCUSSION...
A line of strong to occasionally severe storms is ongoing from
far northwest Arkansas through southeast Oklahoma.  Periodic
large hail and locally damaging winds remain the primary
severe weather hazards with these storms as they continue
eastward through the mid evening hours. A limited tornadic
threat will continue across far southeast Oklahoma through
mid evening.  The storms are ahead of strong cold front
which is quickly sweeping eastward, with winds behind
the front gusting 35 to around 50 mph through the evening
hours.  Winds will gradually subside overnight. Locally
heavy rainfall is ongoing within the line of storms and
soils remain saturated across much of the area.  This may
lead to isolated areas of rapid onset flash flooding.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY through FRIDAY...No Hazards.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Below normal temperatures will prevail most of the upcoming week,
with thunderstorm chances returning next weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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