Severe Thunderstorm Warning 315, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1219 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR to MVFR conditions will a possibility at area sites overnight
and into Wednesday morning. VFR conditions return Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 953 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Active day with pockets of very heavy rainfall (3 to 5 inches)
noted across parts of southeast OK. Convection has been on the
decrease over the past few hours, although recent HRRR runs
suggest that showers/storms may fester across parts of far
southeast OK well into the overnight hours. Will let the majority
of the flash flood watch expire at 10 pm, but extended the watch
for Pushmataha and Choctaw counties until 4 am.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT early this morning for OKZ049-
     053.

AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
507 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-120945-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
507 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Late Afternoon through Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
 	AREA...Along and south of I-44.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

Flash Flood.
	RISK...Limited.
 	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
    ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...

Clusters of strong thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall will
continue late this afternoon across portions of eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas, with the greatest coverage expected across
southeast Oklahoma. A few severe storms will be possible south of
Interstate 44 with locally damaging winds. In addition, due to the
very heavy rainfall, flash flooding will also be possible across
southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

The threat of severe weather and heavy rainfall should diminish late
this evening and into the overnight hours.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY through SUNDAY...Thunderstorm...Dangerous Heat Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorm chances will continue most each day through the
weekend, however currently chances appear rather low and largely
confined to far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Hot and humid conditions are likely to return for mid to late week
with afternoon heat index values around 105 degrees likely.
A weak cold front may move through the region over the weekend
bringing another chance of storms, and possibly cooler temperatures
by early next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1024 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

OKZ053-120415-
Choctaw OK-
1024 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CHOCTAW COUNTY UNTIL 1115
PM CDT...

At 1024 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles north of
Boswell, moving south at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Boswell...                        Soper...
Unger...                          Gay...

LAT...LON 3387 9584 3391 9588 3392 9591 3395 9594
      3412 9594 3413 9595 3416 9588 3416 9579
      3394 9560 3392 9561 3391 9564 3391 9567
      3388 9570 3390 9575 3387 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 0324Z 339DEG 24KT 3408 9588

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