Severe Thunderstorm Warning 244, NWS Tulsa, OK

276 
WWUS54 KTSA 021858
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
158 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

OKC037-111-131-143-145-021930-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0244.000000T0000Z-200702T1930Z/
Rogers OK-Creek OK-Wagoner OK-Okmulgee OK-Tulsa OK-
158 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ROGERS...EAST CENTRAL CREEK...NORTHWESTERN
WAGONER...NORTH CENTRAL OKMULGEE AND SOUTHEASTERN TULSA COUNTIES...

At 158 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 2 miles south of Catoosa to 3 miles southeast of Bixby
to 4 miles south of Mounds, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Broken Arrow...
Bixby...                          Jenks...
Glenpool...                       Coweta...
Catoosa...                        Inola...
Kiefer...                         Beggs...
Mounds...                         Jenks Riverside Airport...
Oneta...                          Liberty...
Hectorville...                    Leonard...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 222 and 240.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3618 9545 3587 9583 3571 9603 3590 9622
      3622 9581
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 312DEG 7KT 3615 9576 3592 9583 3582 9603 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

866 
WWUS54 KTSA 021921
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
221 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

OKC037-111-131-143-145-021930-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0244.000000T0000Z-200702T1930Z/
Rogers OK-Creek OK-Wagoner OK-Okmulgee OK-Tulsa OK-
221 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN ROGERS...EAST
CENTRAL CREEK...NORTHWESTERN WAGONER...NORTH CENTRAL OKMULGEE AND
SOUTHEASTERN TULSA COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 230 PM CDT...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire. However gusty 
winds from 50 to 55 mph are still possible with these thunderstorms 
as they move southeastward.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Tulsa.

LAT...LON 3618 9545 3587 9583 3571 9603 3590 9622
      3622 9581
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 304DEG 18KT 3610 9567 3587 9574 3577 9594 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1149 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

Main aviation concern today and tonight is the potential for
afternoon thunderstorm development and resultant impacts, with
another round possible late tonight and into early tomorrow
morning. With the first round this afternoon, expect potential to
increase from north to south with TUL/RVS potential beginning
early afternoon to MLC/FSM beginning mid to late afternoon. The
second round of thunderstorms could begin in parts of Kansas this
evening, pushing southeastward across the northeast Oklahoma and
into the northwest Arkansas terminals. Expect MVFR conditions in
thunderstorms, with potential for IFR in the stronger storms. VFR
conditions likely otherwise.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1050 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
The main forecast concerns today are the dangerous heat and
humidity again this afternoon, as well as the potential for
thunderstorms and severe weather. The biggest change to the going
forecast with this update has been to upgrade portions of the Heat
Advisory to an Excessive Heat Warning, with afternoon heat indices
in excess of 110 appearing likely.

At present, a small cluster of thunderstorms that began the day in
Kansas has slowly moved southward into parts of northeast Oklahoma
to the northwest of Tulsa late this morning. Ample instability
exists across the area in advance of this cluster, and as seen
just outside our forecast area, it could become briefly strong to
severe at times. These thunderstorms have also produced an outflow
boundary that will sag into northeast Oklahoma through the morning
and into the afternoon. Where this eventually sets up will be a
major player in where the worst afternoon heat index values will
occur, as well as where the greatest thunderstorm coverage should
be later today. Best guess for now is that areas along Highway
412 and south to a McAlester to Poteau line will be most likely to
see the 110 to 115 heat indices today, where the Excessive Heat
Warning has been issued. Some concern exists for areas to the
northeast of the warning, namely Craig and Ottawa counties,
depending on what happens with the outflow.

Early this afternoon, additional scattered diurnal thunderstorms
are expected to develop, with thermodynamic conditions favoring an
isolated damaging wind threat with the strongest storms. As
previously alluded to, the outflow boundary should serve as a
forcing mechanism for more organized and cohesive thunderstorm
development in parts of northeast Oklahoma.

The update, which is already out, also reflects tweaks to the
POPs for the ongoing activity and to raise them across northeast
Oklahoma earlier in the afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 611 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020/

DISCUSSION...

The 12Z TAF forecast discussion follows...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail predominantly, outside of TSRA. Isold
to wdly sct tsra is exptd to develop this afternoon and linger
into the evening. Elected to handle situation with VCTS and PROB30
mention. Light sfc winds will prevail today, after several days of
windy conditions.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 305 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020/

DISCUSSION...
The heat will go on today with temperatures forecast
to top out in the lower to mid 90s across much of
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. With surface
dew points forecast to remain in the mid to upper 70s
across the area today, heat index values will max out
in the 100 to 111 degree range this afternoon. Will keep
the heat advisory in place for now. However, some locations
may need to be upgraded to an excessive heat warning later today.

There are a couple of things that may prevent the heat
index values reaching the excessive heat warning criteria
(110 degrees)this afternoon. 1.) Increased cloud cover across
the region. 2.) Isolated to scattered thunderstorms that
are forecast to develop this afternoon as a weak boundary
currently near the Kansas/Oklahoma border sags into the
rather unstable airmass in place across the region. Some
of these storms will have the potential to become strong
to severe with strong gusty winds the main concern. These
storms are expected to dissipate around sunset.

A few showers and thunderstorms may be possible this morning
across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as
activity now developing north of the frontal boundary
possibly drifts into the area. This activity will diminish
by mid-morning.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight into
Friday as the aforementioned frontal boundary continues to
slowly progress to south across the area. The greatest chances
will be Friday afternoon with the heating of the day.

The chances of showers will begin to diminish on Saturday as
the frontal boundary washes out. On Sunday, we will just see
isolated thunderstorms in the favored terrain areas of
southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

Monday and Tuesday will see a slightly increased chance
of showers and thunderstorms as weak mid-level shortwave
works across the region.

Have stayed close to the NBM guidance temperatures through
the forecast. This means that temperatures will continue
to run above normal for this time of year.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>059-063-
     068-069.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ060>062-064>067-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

AVIATION.....22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1243 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-031015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1243 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing through Early Evening.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing through Early Evening.

DISCUSSION...
Dangerously hot and humid conditions continue across much of
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas today, with maximum heat
index values again likely to exceed 110 degrees across portions of
the area this afternoon.

A cluster of strong to severe storms continues early this
afternoon across portions of northeast Oklahoma, generally to the
west of Highway 75. Additional scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop across the area through the afternoon, with
more focused development likely to occur along the outflow
boundary associated with the ongoing thunderstorm cluster. Some of
these storms may be severe with the main threat being damaging
wind gusts. Marginally severe hail may also occur with the
strongest thunderstorms. The bulk of this activity should diminish
with the loss of daytime heating this evening.

Late tonight, additional thunderstorms may develop in parts of
Kansas and move southeastward across parts of northeast Oklahoma
and into western Arkansas. Organized severe weather is unlikely.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will continue on Friday as a frontal
boundary continues to affect the region. The showers and
thunderstorms will become more isolated Saturday into Sunday as
the frontal boundary washes out.

The potential for showers and thunderstorms will pick up
slightly Monday into Tuesday as a weak upper level disturbance
moves across the region.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1216 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

OKZ054-055-059>061-064-021815-
Tulsa OK-Osage OK-Rogers OK-Pawnee OK-Washington OK-Creek OK-
1216 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL ROGERS...
SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...NORTHWESTERN CREEK...SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...
SOUTHERN PAWNEE AND NORTHERN TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM CDT...

At 1216 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Avant to 2 miles north of Osage to 3 miles
northeast of Glencoe. Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Sand Springs...
Owasso...                         Skiatook...
Collinsville...                   Cleveland...
Mannford...                       Sperry...
Oilton...                         Jennings...
Avant...                          Westport...
Vera...                           Osage...
Hallett...                        Terlton...
Maramec...                        Keystone State Park...
Walnut Creek State Park...        Turley...

LAT...LON 3636 9645 3659 9603 3636 9567 3608 9616
      3602 9662 3616 9662 3616 9682 3624 9682
      3625 9684 3625 9692 3630 9692
TIME...MOT...LOC 1716Z 319DEG 19KT 3651 9606 3632 9640 3626 9688

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1241 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

OKZ060-064-066-021815-
Tulsa OK-Okmulgee OK-Creek OK-
1241 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CREEK...NORTHWESTERN OKMULGEE AND
SOUTHWESTERN TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM CDT...

At 1241 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles southwest of Oilton to 5 miles south of
Keystone State Park. Movement was southeast at 50 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bristow...                        Sapulpa...
Drumright...                      Kiefer...
Mounds...                         Kellyville...
Oilton...                         Depew...
Slick...                          Shamrock...
Liberty...                        Silver City...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 178 and 210.

LAT...LON 3609 9662 3611 9622 3578 9591 3576 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 1741Z 321DEG 45KT 3605 9662 3607 9627

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1246 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1133 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 E PAWHUSKA            36.67N 96.32W
07/02/2020  M58 MPH          OSAGE              OK   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            RAWS SITE PWKO2 MEASURED PEAK GUST TO 58 MPH. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

CAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1258 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

OKZ054-060-061-064-066-067-021845-
Tulsa OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Rogers OK-Creek OK-Wagoner OK-
1258 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ROGERS...
SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...NORTHEASTERN CREEK...NORTHWESTERN WAGONER...
NORTH CENTRAL OKMULGEE AND TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

At 1258 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Collinsville to 2 miles north of Sapulpa. Movement was
southeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Broken Arrow...
Sand Springs...                   Claremore...
Owasso...                         Bixby...
Sapulpa...                        Jenks...
Glenpool...                       Coweta...
Skiatook...                       Catoosa...
Collinsville...                   Verdigris...
Kiefer...                         Sperry...
Jenks Riverside Airport...        Turley...
Tulsa International Airport...    Taiwah...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 210 and 252.

LAT...LON 3629 9545 3577 9591 3610 9622 3616 9616
      3627 9613 3631 9600 3643 9589 3643 9586
      3642 9581 3643 9581
TIME...MOT...LOC 1758Z 307DEG 27KT 3636 9584 3604 9613

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
112 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

OKZ060-064>066-021845-
Tulsa OK-Okmulgee OK-Okfuskee OK-Creek OK-
112 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CREEK...OKMULGEE...SOUTHERN TULSA
AND NORTHERN OKFUSKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

At 111 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 4 miles northwest of Jenks Riverside Airport to 2
miles southwest of Sapulpa to 2 miles northwest of Shamrock. Movement
was southeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Broken Arrow...
Sand Springs...                   Okmulgee...
Bristow...                        Bixby...
Sapulpa...                        Jenks...
Okfuskee...                       Glenpool...
Drumright...                      Kiefer...
Morris...                         Beggs...
Mounds...                         Kellyville...
Depew...                          Slick...
Shamrock...                       Preston...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 178 and 225.

LAT...LON 3606 9662 3608 9620 3616 9605 3605 9576
      3590 9576 3590 9582 3586 9582 3585 9577
      3572 9576 3553 9586 3552 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 308DEG 23KT 3608 9604 3597 9615 3594 9661

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
118 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1256 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E KEYSTONE STATE PARK 36.14N 96.25W
07/02/2020                   TULSA              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            POWER LINES DOWN NEAR HIGHWAY 412 AND 209TH W AVE

&&

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