Alert archive / Oklahoma / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2020

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Tulsa, OK

May 4, 2020Mayes County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 4, 2020, 6:27 PM CDT for Mayes County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 33 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: May 4, 2020, 6:27 PM CDT (23:27 UTC)
Expired: May 4, 2020, 7:00 PM CDT
In force: 33 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 70.0 mph

County Mayes County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 41 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
May 4, 6:39 PM CDT	HAIL 2.5	6 Se Pryor, OK	REPORTED IN SPORTSMEN ACRES
May 4, 6:40 PM CDT	HAIL 2	3 N Locust Grove, OK

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 12 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 4, 2:32 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	9 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 138 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 988 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 99 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 190 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 2.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

395 
WUUS54 KTSA 042327
SVRTSA
OKC097-050000-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0165.200504T2327Z-200505T0000Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
627 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Central Mayes County in northeastern Oklahoma...

* Until 700 PM CDT.

* At 627 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Sportsmen
  Acres Community, moving southeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
           tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
           roofs, and outbuildings.

* Locations in or near the path include...
  Chouteau...                       Locust Grove...
  Salina...                         Rose...
  Sportsmen Acres Community...      Murphy...
  Snowdale State Park...            

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northeastern
and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3630 9500 3625 9501 3621 9501 3611 9523
      3623 9540 3637 9517
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 301DEG 18KT 3627 9526 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

2 follow-up statements

828 
WWUS54 KTSA 042341
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
641 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

OKC097-050000-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0165.000000T0000Z-200505T0000Z/
Mayes OK-
641 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MAYES COUNTY...

At 640 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Locust Grove,
moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated. Golf ball size hail was reported near 
         Sportsmen Acres.  

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations in or near the path include...
Locust Grove...                   Salina...
Rose...                           Sportsmen Acres Community...
Snowdale State Park...            

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northeastern
and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3630 9500 3625 9501 3621 9501 3612 9521
      3628 9530 3635 9517
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 301DEG 18KT 3624 9519 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

536 
WWUS54 KTSA 042346
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
646 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

OKC097-050000-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0165.000000T0000Z-200505T0000Z/
Mayes OK-
646 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MAYES COUNTY...

At 646 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Locust Grove,
moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations in or near the path include...
Locust Grove...                   Salina...
Rose...                           Snowdale State Park...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northeastern
and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3630 9500 3625 9501 3621 9501 3615 9514
      3621 9525 3635 9517
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 286DEG 19KT 3623 9514 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 4, 2:31 PM CDT, 3 hours 56 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 4, 2:31 PM CDT, 3 hours 56 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
231 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
Atmosphere has become extremely unstable this afternoon with
MLCAPES approaching 4500 J/KG just west of the area across north-
central Oklahoma. Cold front currently moving into far northwest
Osage county with pre-frontal boundary located slightly further
south, near a Ralston, Copan line. Latest CAMs and surface
analysis trends indicate scattered supercells will quickly
develop along frontal boundary in the 3-5 PM range just north of
I-44 with 0-6 KM deep layer shear remaining in 40 to 50 knot
range. Very large hail to baseballs and damaging winds to 70 mph
will be possible in the stronger cells. Although low level wind
fields in the 0-1 KM range are not overly impressive, given the
extreme instability, any deviant storm motion, with a more
southern track, would likely enhance SRH/tornado threat. In
addition, winds are little more backed/stronger across far
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas near warm front, where a
tornado or two will also be possible. Storms will likely become
more linear with time with multiple strong to severe thunderstorm
clusters pushing into southeast Oklahoma and northeast Arkansas
this evening, transitioning towards a damaging wind threat.

Significantly cooler weather expected behind front Tuesday into
Wednesday as surface high pressure builds over the region. Models
remain in good agreement with stronger upper shortwave moving out
of the northern Rockies and into the central Plains on Thursday.
Shower/thunderstorm chances will begin to ramp up Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night with widespread rain expected with
FROPA. NBM guidance looks good for the remainder of the extended
periods.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  74  50  75 /  40   0   0   0
FSM   58  76  49  77 /  70   0   0   0
MLC   57  74  49  77 /  70   0   0   0
BVO   53  73  48  74 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   54  71  46  72 /  80   0   0   0
BYV   53  70  45  71 /  80   0   0   0
MKO   55  72  49  74 /  80   0   0   0
MIO   53  70  46  71 /  70   0   0   0
F10   55  73  49  76 /  70   0   0   0
HHW   60  75  51  77 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

LONG TERM....12

Hazardous weather outlook, May 4, 5:22 PM CDT, 1 hour 5 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
522 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-051000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
522 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING...VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Mainly Southeast of Interstate 44.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms have developed late this
afternoon along and just ahead of a strong cold front that is
nearing the Interstate 44 corridor. A few tornadoes, with one or
two strong tornadoes, are possible into the early evening hours.
Very large hail to baseball size and winds to 70 miles an hour
will also be possible with the strongest storms. Locally heavy
rainfall may also result in some localized flooding issues.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY and SUNDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
After a dry Tuesday and Wednesday, thunderstorm chances along with
a severe weather threat return for Thursday into early Friday.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 4, 5:53 PM CDT, 34 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
553 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             MIAMI                   36.87N 94.88W
05/04/2020  E1.00 INCH       OTTAWA             OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MAT

Special weather statement, May 4, 5:58 PM CDT, 29 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
558 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

OKZ060-065>067-070-042330-
Tulsa OK-Muskogee OK-Okmulgee OK-Okfuskee OK-Wagoner OK-
558 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN WAGONER...NORTHWESTERN
MUSKOGEE...OKMULGEE...SOUTHEASTERN TULSA AND OKFUSKEE COUNTIES UNTIL
630 PM CDT...

At 558 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Coweta to 2 miles west of Preston to 2 miles
northeast of Cromwell. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Broken Arrow...                   Okmulgee...
Wagoner...                        Okemah...
Bixby...                          Okfuskee...
Coweta...                         Haskell...
Morris...                         Beggs...
Boley...                          Porter...
Bearden...                        Castle...
Clearview...                      Preston...
Stonebluff...                     Pharoah...
Bald Hill...                      Okmulgee State Park...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 212 and
233.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northeastern
and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3564 9629 3564 9619 3570 9619 3606 9578
      3605 9529 3565 9581 3529 9621 3529 9644
      3546 9644 3546 9647 3543 9650 3545 9655
      3545 9656 3544 9657 3541 9654 3539 9654
      3541 9658 3540 9662 3544 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 253DEG 40KT 3595 9567 3570 9604 3536 9643

Local storm report, May 4, 6:01 PM CDT, 26 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
601 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0556 PM     HAIL             6 NW PRYOR              36.37N 95.39W
05/04/2020  E1.75 INCH       MAYES              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MAT

Local storm report, May 4, 6:15 PM CDT, 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
615 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 SW PRYOR              36.25N 95.39W
05/04/2020  E60 MPH          MAYES              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MAT

Local storm report, May 4, 6:16 PM CDT, 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
616 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 PM     HAIL             3 N PRYOR               36.35N 95.32W
05/04/2020  E1.00 INCH       MAYES              OK   PUBLIC

&&

MAT

Local storm report, May 4, 6:19 PM CDT, 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
619 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PRYOR                   36.31N 95.32W
05/04/2020                   MAYES              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF DAMAGE AT PRYOR MOVIE THEATRE

&&

MAT

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 4, 8:05 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Craig	40 min
May 4, 8:12 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Craig, Mayes, Rogers	48 min
May 4, 8:19 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Craig, Nowata	40 min
May 4, 8:22 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Haskell, Latimer	53 min
May 4, 8:41 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Craig, Delaware, Mayes, Ottawa	64 min
May 4, 8:51 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Craig, Ottawa	39 min
May 4, 8:55 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Delaware	65 min
May 4, 9:15 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Ottawa	11 hr
May 4, 9:18 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Adair, Delaware	57 min
May 4, 9:26 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Craig, Delaware, Ottawa	49 min
May 4, 9:32 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Craig, Ottawa	43 min
May 4, 3:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Nowata, Osage, Rogers, Washington	55 min
May 4, 3:52 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Washington	23 min
May 4, 3:53 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Nowata	37 min
May 4, 4:01 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Washington	29 min
May 4, 4:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Craig, Nowata	41 min
May 4, 4:32 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Ottawa	28 min
May 4, 4:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Nowata, Rogers, Washington	31 min
May 4, 4:53 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Craig	37 min
May 4, 4:57 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Tulsa	33 min
May 4, 5:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Creek, Muskogee, Okmulgee, Tulsa, Wagoner	44 min
May 4, 5:06 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Creek, Okfuskee, Okmulgee	54 min
May 4, 5:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Craig, Mayes, Rogers	50 min
May 4, 5:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Ottawa	33 min
May 4, 5:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Creek, Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner	44 min
May 4, 5:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Craig, Ottawa	42 min
May 4, 5:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Mayes, Rogers	29 min
May 4, 5:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Ottawa	29 min
May 4, 5:58 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Okfuskee, Okmulgee, Wagoner	32 min
May 4, 5:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Mayes	32 min
May 4, 6:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Okmulgee	41 min
May 4, 6:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Rogers	35 min
May 4, 6:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Ottawa	10 min
May 4, 6:33 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Ottawa	27 min
May 4, 6:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Muskogee, Okmulgee	27 min
May 4, 6:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Mayes, Rogers	36 min
May 4, 6:50 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Okfuskee	25 min
May 4, 6:51 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Delaware, Mayes	3 hr
May 4, 6:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Cherokee, Delaware, Mayes	39 min
May 4, 6:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Mayes, Rogers, Wagoner	46 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Oklahoma, 2020 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.