Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Tulsa, OK

955 
WWUS54 KTSA 250215
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
915 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020

ARC033-047-087-131-250225-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0106.000000T0000Z-200425T0215Z/
Madison AR-Franklin AR-Crawford AR-Sebastian AR-
915 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN MADISON...FRANKLIN...
EASTERN CRAWFORD AND NORTHEASTERN SEBASTIAN COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning has been allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
northwestern and west central Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3588 9352 3576 9352 3577 9370 3538 9371
      3537 9375 3542 9380 3531 9381 3532 9392
      3523 9392 3523 9402 3514 9403 3514 9414
      3510 9414 3509 9417 3577 9410 3576 9396
      3582 9396 3600 9345
TIME...MOT...LOC 0215Z 276DEG 32KT 3565 9380 3540 9375 3521 9385 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
630 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Strong to severe thunderstorms have developed over eastern OK and
will continue to move east. Threat has passed KTUL/KRVS/KBVO and
will shift into NW AR/SE OK sites between 00-03z. Rapid
deterioration in flight conditions will accompany storms with some
potential for sfc wind gusts aoa 40knots. Gusty w-nw winds will
occur behind cold front tonight with MVFR ceilings spreading over
much of the area. Conditions should improve across eastern OK by
12z Saturday, with low ceilings persisting across NW AR into
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 353 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop soon across
northeast Oklahoma just ahead of a cold front, with the activity
building south into southeast Oklahoma over the next 2-3 hours.
Large hail and damaging winds will be main severe weather threats,
with an isolated tornado threat across mainly far southeast
Oklahoma. The biggest limiting factor for tornadoes is the lack of
deep low level moisture, although surface dewpoints may reach the
lower 60s near the Red River just ahead of the storms. Storms
will move east of the area by late evening, but a few showers will
remain possible overnight mainly across northwest Arkansas and
far northeast Oklahoma.

After a dry and mild weekend, shower and thunderstorm chances will
return late Sunday night and Monday as an upper level disturbance
moves across the area. A cold front will move across the area late
Tuesday and Tuesday evening bringing another round of showers and
storms, along with the potential for severe weather.

Dry and mild weather will return for the latter half of next week.
The GFS is more aggressive than the ECMWF with another system at
the tail end of the forecast period, and will side with the ECMWF
for now keeping next Friday dry.

Raised pops from the National Blend of Models forecast for late
Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
458 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
458 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS EVENING...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well
as much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
    AREA...Far Southeast Oklahoma.
    ONSET...After 6 pm.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
    AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing in eastern Oklahoma...after 7 pm in Arkansas.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Along and South of Interstate 40.

FLASH FLOOD and HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Mid Evening.

DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms have developed over northeast
Oklahoma and will continue to build south early this evening, with
storms moving into western Arkansas after about 7 pm. Instability
and wind shear both are greater farther to the south, making the
threat of significant severe weather greater along and south of
I-40. Conditions do appear favorable for both large hail and
locally damaging wind gust potential. Hail to golfball, and
possibly tennis ball, size is possible with the most intense
storms. Additionally, some storms across far southeast Oklahoma will
have a limited tornadic potential, especially near the Red River
valley. Storms will move further east by late evening with the
severe weather risk ending by midnight. Locally heavy rainfall is
possible across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Given the
recent rainfall, any heavier amounts could quickly increase flash
flooding concerns.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...No Hazards.
SUNDAY through MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY through THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Gusty northerly winds which develop Friday evening will
persist into the day Saturday. Dry and mild conditions are
expected through the weekend, with thunderstorm chances returning
Monday into Tuesday.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
715 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     HAIL             CROWDER                 35.12N 95.67W
04/24/2020  E0.75 INCH       PITTSBURG          OK   PUBLIC

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
720 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0717 PM     HAIL             5 NE MCALESTER          34.98N 95.71W
04/24/2020  E0.88 INCH       PITTSBURG          OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY 69 AND SH 113

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
725 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0724 PM     HAIL             GORE                    35.53N 95.12W
04/24/2020  E0.75 INCH       SEQUOYAH           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GORE PD REPORTED DIME HAIL, HEAVY RAIN, AND 35 TO 40 MPH
            WINDS.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
758 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0756 PM     HAIL             WILBURTON               34.92N 95.31W
04/24/2020  E0.88 INCH       LATIMER            OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
806 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             5 S HARTSHORNE          34.77N 95.56W
04/24/2020  E1.25 INCH       PITTSBURG          OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
835 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0833 PM     HAIL             2 ESE WHITESBORO        34.68N 94.85W
04/24/2020  E0.88 INCH       LE FLORE           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JDS