Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1046 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mostly clear skies and winds between east and south are expected
to continue overnight tonight. Gusty to strong southerly winds
just above the surface will allow for LLWS to be possible for TAF
sites tonight. Winds Wednesday morning are forecast to begin
increasing with gusts in the 20 to 30KT range possible for the
late morning/afternoon hours across the majority of the CWA. By
Wednesday evening southerly winds look to weaken slightly though
still in the 15-25KT range for most locations. The exception
should be KFSM where winds look to become more easterly again
toward the end of the TAF period. VFR conditions should prevail
through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 948 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Lowered temperatures a few degrees for tonight in the lower
valley areas of southeast Oklahoma and in the FYV area where
temperatures have dropped off fairly quickly given the dry air-
mass in place/light winds. Otherwise, short term forecast on
track.

It's possible the wind advisory may need to be expanded for
Wednesday afternoon for a few counties across far northeast
Oklahoma along the OK/KS border, but will let the upcoming shift
take a closer look as additional model data becomes available.
High fire danger still expected Wednesday afternoon, especially in
areas northwest of Tulsa where Red Flag conditions may be met.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   46  72  54  74 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   39  71  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   44  72  51  71 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   43  72  53  74 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   34  68  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   41  68  50  72 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   42  70  50  71 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   44  69  51  72 /   0   0   0   0
F10   44  72  51  72 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   41  70  46  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     afternoon for OKZ054-059.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday for OKZ054-059.

AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
455 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181100-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
455 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is anticipated through tonight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...Very High Fire Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY...High Wind Potential.
FRIDAY...No Hazards.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Fire weather concerns will peak on Wednesday with near critical
conditions expected across parts of northeast Oklahoma. Southerly
winds gusting in excess of 30 miles an hour, along with well
above normal temperatures and low relative humidity values less
than 30 percent, are forecast over much of the region. Gusty
southerly winds will continue into Thursday and Friday, but low-
level moisture will increase somewhat which will reduce the fire
potential compared to Wednesday.

This weekend, a strong cold front will move through the area
Saturday night into Sunday morning bringing with it increased
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Some locally heavy
rainfall will be possible as well with this system.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.