Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Tulsa, OK

097 
WWUS84 KTSA 282007
RFWTSA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
307 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

OKZ054>064-067-282115-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200329T0000Z/
Osage-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-Mayes-
Delaware-Creek-Wagoner-
307 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

The National Weather Service in Tulsa has cancelled the Red Flag
Warning. 

Relative humidity values have begun to increase along and north
of I-44 as a cooler airmass pushes into the region.  An elevated
fire weather threat will remain along and south of I-44 for
the next few hours, however fire weather conditions will begin to
improve by late afternoon. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
325 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Dryline/pacific front located across western Oklahoma this morning.
Additional showers and thunderstorms have developed along the
boundary and will translate east this morning. Surface low
tracking a little bit further south, so based on this and current
trends, will likely increase PoPs across northeast Oklahoma this
morning. Considerably drier air with gusty W-SW winds will ensue
behind the front as it moves through the region later this
morning and into the afternoon. Despite some greening up, will go
ahead and issue a red flag warning from noon to 7 pm for NE OK as
afternoon temps in the lower to mid 70s, RH value falling to the
20-30 percent range and wind gusts to 35 mph are expected. Dry
weather will continue for the remainder of the weekend with
slightly cooler temperatures on Sunday. The next system is still
on track to impact the region from Monday into Tuesday with
chances for widespread rainfall, especially SE OK where the
highest rain amounts are anticipated. Cooler temperatures closer
to seasonal averages are expected for the middle to latter parts
of next week. Another frontal boundary to move through Thursday,
so will include low PoPs for later in the next week. Stayed close
to the National Blend of Models for temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  46  71  47 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   77  46  70  49 /  50   0   0   0
MLC   76  45  71  49 /  30   0   0   0
BVO   74  44  70  44 /  20   0   0   0
FYV   74  44  68  46 /  50   0   0   0
BYV   74  44  67  45 /  50   0   0   0
MKO   76  44  69  48 /  30   0   0   0
MIO   74  44  68  44 /  30   0   0   0
F10   76  44  70  48 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   76  46  71  51 /  50   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ054>064-067.

AR...None.
&&

LONG TERM....23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
522 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-281030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
522 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
 RISK...Limited.
 AREA... Eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas.
 ONSET... Ongoing with another round possible after midnight.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
 AREA... Eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas.
 ONSET... Late Tonight.

DISCUSSION...
The storms that produced large hail have moved out of the area and
are now moving across Missouri. As for eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas, a couple of additional showers and storms
will remain possible into the evening hours. An isolated storm may
be strong to marginally severe.

Tonight will feature the potential for another round of showers
and storms mainly after midnight along a passing cold front.
These storms will also have the potential to become severe with
large hail and damaging winds the main concern.

Winds will also begin to increase late tonight in response to a
passing cold front with gusts up to 28 miles per hour at times by
early tomorrow morning.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Very High Fire Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

A few thunderstorms may be ongoing early Saturday across far
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Saturday will also feature
a very high fire potential thanks due in part to warm
temperatures, relative humidity values in the 20 to 30 percent
range, and gusty westerly winds in the 30 to 35 mile per hour
range. The greatest area of concern for fire danger will be from
about highway 69 and northwestward. Other locations across eastern
Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas will be at least at a limited
threat through the afternoon.

Sunday will be dry, but shower and thunderstorm chances return by
early next week as another upper system moves into the Plains.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Snider