Freeze Warning 6, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
244 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Cold/breezy conditions this afternoon behind cold front which has
pushed southeast of the region. Skies are expected to clear over
portions of northeast Oklahoma tonight with decreasing winds.
Areas of frost will be possible along and north of I-44 with
freezing temperatures further northwest. Will therefore go ahead
and issue Frost advisory/freeze warning for aforementioned areas.

Although a brief warming trend is expected Saturday into Sunday, the
unseasonably cool weather will likely persist with clouds lingering
over most of the area.  Some light drizzle and/or light rain will be
possible Sunday afternoon/evening as southwest flow aloft begins to
increase.

Stronger forcing is expected to develop Sunday night into Monday as
upper trough begins to dig over the desert southwest with widespread
precipitation spreading into eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Surface low developing over north Texas during this time will begin to
shift east into the Arklatx region by Monday afternoon with colder air
filtering into the area behind cold front.

Main forecast concern will be the low level thermal fields across
northeast Oklahoma into the day Monday with the potential for freezing
rain. Depending on where the heavier precip bands develop, temperatures
could wetbulb/fall to near or just below freezing over portions
of northeast Oklahoma with some light ice accumulations possible.
GFS remains the colder outlier compared to the warmer ECMWF and
NAM solutions, so for now, kept any ice accumulations light and
removed the mention of sleet.

Models now in fairly good agreement with developing strong upper
low over AZ/NM on Tuesday with widespread precipitation continuing
Tuesday into Wednesday as upper low approaches from the
southwest. There remains some potential for freezing rain across
portions of northeast Oklahoma into the day Tuesday but currently
have temperatures rising into the mid to upper 30s by afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   35  55  47  61 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   45  57  48  66 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   41  57  47  66 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   32  53  44  58 /   0   0   0  30
FYV   36  56  42  63 /   0   0   0  20
BYV   38  56  44  64 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   38  55  47  63 /   0   0   0  20
MIO   34  55  45  59 /   0   0   0  40
F10   36  55  46  64 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   45  57  48  68 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ056>058-
     060>062-064.

     Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ054-055-
     059.

AR...None.
&&

LONG TERM....12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1041 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1041 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Gusty northerly winds will continue through this afternoon
across much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas
behind a strong cold front. Wind gusts could be as high
as 35 mph across portions of northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...No Hazards.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...Winter Weather Potential.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...Heavy Rain Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Another strong front will bring a shot of very unseasonably cold
air for the beginning of the next work week. This front will move
into the area late Sunday and Sunday night along with chances for
showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Behind the
front, the air may be cold enough to support some wintry
precipitation early next week in the form of sleet and or light
freezing rain for parts of far northeast Oklahoma. The airmass is
expected to modify by mid week as a strong upper low lifts towards
the plains. At that time, locally heavy rain will be possible as
this system pushes through the region.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.