Freeze Warning 10, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1150 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2020

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A few showers are currently moving through portions of northwest
Arkansas and may provide a very brief shower for some sites.
Showers should move off quickly and leave mostly clear skies with
VFR conditions prevailing through much of the period. Gusty
southerly winds will continue this afternoon as the surface
pressure gradient tightens in advance of an approaching cold
front. The cold front will enter northeast Oklahoma later this
afternoon and move across the area this evening providing a shift
to northerly winds across all sites this evening, a brief period
of higher gusts will be possible immediately following the front.
Some scattered showers will develop along the front this evening
mainly across southeast Oklahoma and have mentioned some showers
in the TAF for MLC. Showers could possibly affect FSM as well, but
have left out mention there for now due to lower confidence there.

Bowlan

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1002 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2020/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A narrow axis of elevated instability has sparked a few showers
across northeast Oklahoma this morning as a weak pre-frontal surface
trough moves across the forecast area. These showers are moving
pretty quickly off to the northeast and may affect portions of
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas over the next couple of
hours. Otherwise a sunny and seasonably warm day is on tap across
much of the region in advance of a cold front set to move through
the area later this afternoon and evening. A few showers could
develop along the front late this afternoon, mainly from I-44 and
south with the best chances across southeastern Oklahoma this
evening.

For the update... added in 20 PoPs across eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas through noon and nudged max temperatures up a
couple degrees in most places in advance of the front. Also nudged
up wind gusts as the surface pressure gradient tightens with the
approaching front.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  34  56  51 /   0   0  20  70
FSM   67  42  62  50 /  20  20  20  40
MLC   69  41  60  52 /  20  20  20  50
BVO   66  30  54  46 /   0   0  20  60
FYV   66  32  59  46 /  20  10  10  50
BYV   67  34  55  46 /  20   0  10  50
MKO   66  36  59  49 /  10  20  20  60
MIO   65  29  55  46 /  20   0  10  60
F10   68  36  58  49 /  10  20  20  60
HHW   69  48  64  52 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1255 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131115-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1255 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2020

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time

DISCUSSION...
A cold front will move through the ares later this afternoon and
this evening bringing a chance for a few showers mainly across
southeast Oklahoma tonight. No thunderstorms or severe weather is
anticipated with this activity.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A strong upper level disturbance will move into the region late Friday
into Saturday. Areas of rain, with a few embedded thunderstorms, will
likely become more widespread across northeast Oklahoma Friday night.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue Saturday as a cold front
moves into area. A few storms could be strong to marginally severe
Saturday afternoon and evening before the cold front sweeps southeast
of the area Saturday night.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.