Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1242 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A weak frontal boundary is currently draped across far NW AR and
extends WSW into OK. This boundary has allowed for isolated to
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop along and
near it. This activity is expected to persist for a couple of more
hours thus have opted to include thunderstorms in the TAF for
KXNA, KROG, and KFYV with storms exiting the area a little faster
from KFYV. An outflow boundary was also noted moving northward
across NE OK which has allowed for isolated showers to pop to the
east of KTUL and KRVS. Odds are showers will not develop due to a
slightly more stable airmass from storms earlier in the evening.
With that said, an isolated brief shower can't be rules out at
KTUL, KRVS, or KBVO over the next hour or so.

A surge of moisture will enter SE OK this morning which will
likely bring MVFR ceilings to KMLC for the first part of the
morning. The NW AR TAF sites will likely see lowered ceilings as
well but should stay a little above MVFR criteria. NE OK TAF will
not see any significant lowerings due to these sites being too
far north. This surge of moisture will likely aid in the
development of afternoon diurnal thunderstorm activity for the NW
AR TAF sites and KMLC. KTUL, KRVS, and KBVO will likely be a
little too far north of the best available moisture for scattered
storms but an isolated storm or two at these terminals can't be
ruled out. Confidence is too low to include a thunderstorm group
at these three TAF sites at this time.

Outside of storm influences and the MVFR morning ceilings at KMLC,
all TAF sites should remain VFR through the period.

Snider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 922 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020/

DISCUSSION...
A few lingering showers/isolated thunderstorms will begin
to dissipate over the next hour or two with loss of heating.
Current forecast generally on track with no significant changes
at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  74  92  76 /  20  10  20  10
FSM   91  74  93  75 /  40  10  30  10
MLC   90  74  90  75 /  30  20  20  10
BVO   91  72  90  73 /  20  10  20  10
FYV   88  70  88  71 /  40  10  40  10
BYV   89  70  88  71 /  40  10  40  10
MKO   90  73  91  73 /  30  10  20  10
MIO   91  71  89  72 /  30  10  30  10
F10   90  72  90  73 /  20  10  20  10
HHW   88  74  92  74 /  50  20  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....21

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
500 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-221030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
500 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This evening through tonight.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue this afternoon
into the evening hours across eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will accompany the
strongest storms.  Most of the thunderstorm activity will likely
dissipate by late evening with the loss of heating.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY through MONDAY...Thunderstorm and Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Deeper moisture will move into the area from the south Wednesday
and Thursday, increasing the chances for scattered afternoon
thunderstorms. By late this week into the weekend, an upper level
ridge will build back over the area, with increasing heat and
humidity. Afternoon heat index values may climb back above 105
degrees in many places Friday through the weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.