Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
240 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

A shortwave trough currently moving through the area will continue
to fuel showers and thunderstorms across the area this morning,
especially in the southwestern half of the CWA where MUCAPE ranges
up to 500 J/kg. Coverage is expected to remain scattered and
precipitation totals low due to significant dry air across the
region; however, 50 kts of deep layer shear, some instability,
and low freezing levels could continue to support gusty winds or
hail with the strongest of the storms.

Cloud cover associated with the wave will linger through the
morning, then should gradually move off to the east by early
afternoon, allowing temperatures to warm to near 70 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

Quiet conditions are expected Tuesday, then showers and a few
thunderstorms are still expected from late Tuesday night through
Wednesday as a shortwave trough slides across the Southern Plains.
The system has continued its southward push and has weakened some
in recent model trends, but rainfall and at least some embedded
storms are still expected to spread north of the surface low and
into the forecast area.

Additional storm chances stretch from Friday through the weekend
as a series of disturbances work through the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

For the 06z TAFs, scattered showers and potentially an isolated
thunderstorm are possible near the TAF sites overnight into Monday
morning. However, there is still uncertainty in the coverage of
this precipitation near the TAF sites so have kept VCSH. Cannot
entirely rule out a brief period of MVFR cigs as showers exit the
area late morning, however more models seem to be backing away
from this solution and keeping cigs low-end VFR.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Hennecke

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
340 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-202045-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
340 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms across most of the area
after midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
151 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

KSZ020-034-200730-
Cloud-Ottawa-
151 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN OTTAWA AND
SOUTHWESTERN CLOUD COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM CDT...

At 151 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Asherville, moving southeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Minneapolis, Glasco and Delphos.

LAT...LON 3949 9793 3931 9751 3907 9769 3920 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0651Z 300DEG 32KT 3938 9800

Laflin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
215 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

KSZ034-035-200745-
Dickinson-Ottawa-
215 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DICKINSON AND
CENTRAL OTTAWA COUNTIES UNTIL 245 AM CDT...

At 215 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Delphos, moving southeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Minneapolis, Solomon, Bennington, Delphos, Wells, Manchester, Niles
and Talmage.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 267 and 268.

LAT...LON 3920 9791 3931 9782 3931 9767 3918 9737
      3913 9737 3913 9726 3910 9718 3888 9737
      3891 9737 3892 9738 3896 9737 3896 9750
TIME...MOT...LOC 0715Z 303DEG 38KT 3924 9776

Laflin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
249 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

KSZ034-035-200830-
Dickinson-Ottawa-
249 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN DICKINSON AND
SOUTHEASTERN OTTAWA COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM CDT...

At 248 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles west of Manchester, moving southeast at 45 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Abilene, Chapman, Solomon, Enterprise, Bennington, Manchester, Niles,
Moonlight and Talmage.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 267 and 289.

LAT...LON 3920 9746 3916 9737 3913 9737 3913 9729
      3900 9696 3896 9696 3898 9693 3896 9693
      3875 9710 3892 9738 3896 9737 3896 9745
      3904 9759
TIME...MOT...LOC 0748Z 303DEG 37KT 3909 9744

Laflin