Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Topeka, KS

180 
WWUS53 KTOP 040415
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1115 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

KSC117-201-040445-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0073.000000T0000Z-200604T0445Z/
Washington-Marshall-
1115 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM CDT
FOR WASHINGTON AND NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES...

At 1115 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 4 miles southwest of Oketo to near Morrowville, moving
southeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Marysville, Washington, Hanover, Linn, Greenleaf, Barnes,
Morrowville, Haddam, Mahaska, Oketo, Hollenberg and Bremen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Wind damage with these storms will occur before any rain or
lightning. Do not wait for the sound of thunder before taking cover.
SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9643 3976 9644 3965 9736 4000 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0415Z 312DEG 43KT 3991 9665 3984 9712 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

BD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
638 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

As of 20Z broad northwesterly midlevel flow was present across the
Central Plains with a very subtle shortwave trough bisecting the
forecast area. A midlevel cloud deck is helping to identify this
subtle feature. At the surface a weak/diffuse surface frontal
boundary is also bisecting the area from approximately Council
Grove to near St. Joe, MO. Visible satellite imagery reveals two
zones of potential thunderstorm develop. The first is along and
southeast of I-35, where a cumulus field has developed. Two
updrafts have developed in extreme northeast Anderson County.
Additional development is possible throughout the afternoon and
early evening. The second zone is across far northeast KS into
northern MO, where an additional cumulus field has developed. The
background environment is conditionally very unstable with steep
midlevel lapse rates contributing to MLCAPE values greater than
3000 J/kg. Effective shear values are less than 30 kts and would
tend to yield multicell/pulse modes of convection. Furthermore,
Pwat values now exceed 1.6", which suggests any storm that does
develop will produce very heavy rainfall, possibly resulting in
localized flash-flooding. Combining these two features, very moist
and weakly sheared environment, increases the potential for
microburst. As the aforementioned shortwave trough progresses
southeast of the area early this evening, expect the bulk of
thunderstorm activity to decrease in coverage.

Another round of thunderstorm activity is possible overnight as
thunderstorms, which are currently developing across the High
Plains of NE/WY/CO, grow upscale and propagate across the
forecast area. Damaging winds and brief heavy rainfall will be the
primary concerns with this round. Overnight lows should bottom out
near 70.

By Thursday, the thunderstorm complex that is progged to traverse
the area tonight should exit the area by sunrise. Similar to
today, a very conditional threat for thunderstorm development
exists but confidence is very low. The background environment will
be similar today with a damaging wind and locally heavy rainfall
potential. Otherwise, another hot and humid day is expected with
highs in the 90s. Heat indices will reach the upper 90s to near
100.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

Transitioning into the extended, the threat for thunderstorms
continues through Friday while heat and humidity continues through
the weekend. By Thursday night, a shortwave trough is progged to
eject across the mid-MO valley region Thursday evening into the
overnight hours. This could aid in thunderstorm development
generally after 00Z Friday. Primary hazards would likely be large
hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall.

The southwestern US midlevel ridge will amplify and overspread
the Plains Friday into Saturday. The persistent frontal boundary
will remain near/just north of the forecast area through the day
Friday. As a result, another hot and humid day is expected with
highs in the mid to upper 90s. Heat indices will range from
100-105; subsequent forecasts will have to reevaluate for the
potential for heat advisory headlines. Model solutions continue to
have a weak shortwave trough rounding the ridge axis Friday night
across the mid-MO valley. Additional thunderstorm develop is
possible with its passage. A drier pattern looks to setup over the
weekend with the aforementioned ridge axis building into the
area. Highs look to remain in the 90s throughout the weekend with
heat indicies in the mid to upper 90s.

Model guidance continues to suggest the remnants of Tropical
Storm Cristobal may approach the forecast area Tuesday into
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

A couple of the CAM models forecast a line of strong to severe
thunderstorms moving through the terminals after 5Z at KMHK and
after 6Z at KTOP and KFOE. There will probably be a brief time of
heavy rainfall and potential wind gusts of 40 to 60 MPH. After the
line moves through there may be showers with isolated storms
lingering for another couple hours. After the early morning storms
expect VFR conditions.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baerg
LONG TERM...Baerg
AVIATION...Gargan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
711 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-050015-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
711 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are possible later tonight across the entire
area. The primary hazard is damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Another round of severe thunderstorms is possible Thursday
evening with damaging winds and large hail being the main
hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep