Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Topeka, KS

434 
WWUS53 KTOP 200638
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
138 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020

KSC029-143-200715-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0151.000000T0000Z-200720T0715Z/
Ottawa-Cloud-
138 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 AM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN OTTAWA AND SOUTHERN CLOUD COUNTIES...

At 138 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles east of
Delphos, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Miltonvale, Glasco, Delphos and Aurora. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3955 9793 3941 9737 3940 9737 3914 9770
      3925 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0638Z 219DEG 25KT 3930 9768 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Teefey

416 
WWUS53 KTOP 200647
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
147 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020

KSC029-143-200656-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0151.000000T0000Z-200720T0715Z/
Ottawa-Cloud-
147 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN OTTAWA AND
SOUTHERN CLOUD COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3955 9793 3941 9737 3940 9737 3914 9770
      3925 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0645Z 219DEG 25KT 3935 9763 

$$

Teefey

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1138 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

Currently, the upper air patter continues to feature the main belt
of the Westerlies well north of the area around the Canadian border.
As shortwave energy continues to lift into the northwestern Great
Lakes region, the associated weak surface cold front has settled
across the forecast area.  This boundary is fairly hard to analyze
but it is roughly from just north of Kansas City trailing just north
of Manhattan and then points west into north Central Kansas.  This
boundary is expected to continue to be the focal point for any
storms to develop off of this afternoon with favored areas generally
from Topeka and points east with the best overall - but still weak -
convergence as well as higher theta-e airmass with higher mixing
ratios generally above 15 g/kg.

Overall, dewpoints are slightly lower than yesterday with some areas
being impacted by old outflow boundaries from overnight convection
that moved into the area.  Also, lower dewpoints reside on the north
side of this frontal boundary across the area.  As a result, heat
indicies across the area are now in the upper 80s to upper 90s.
Still very uncomfortable but some relief from the oppressive heat.
Winds remain light, so still exercise caution when working or
playing outdoors.

As hinted at before, storms should still develop this afternoon
generally through 6 or 7 pm from Topeka and points east then down
into areas of east Central KS into the Emporia area.  While severe
storms are not all that likely, there could be one or two develop
with downburst winds being a concern before storms develop off of
the outflows and propagate east of the area before dark.

Overnight, isentropic ascent should increase as night falls and a
LLJ develops over western KS.  As storms grow upscale, veering of
the LLJ should favor advection into the forecast area.  Slow storm
motions and backbuilding suggests that heavy rain would be possible.
 Not entirely sure about overall coverage though if the LLJ does
progressively veer sooner than expected, so not going with a broad
brush Flood Watch for now.  Still coordinated with WPC and the
slight area was not upgraded to a Moderate area for flash flooding
concerns.  Still would not rule out a flash flood warning or two may
be needed tonight with some locally high rainfall amounts.
Antecedent conditions also precluded any enhanced flood concerns at
this time.  Favored areas remain along the weak boundary extending
from area just east of Concordia into east Central KS where some of
the highest amounts may be possible.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

Into the day on Monday, showers and storms should tend to weaken and
partial clearing could take place into part of the afternoon.  Right
now the a similar pattern appears to be the likely scenario with no
significant change in the synoptic pattern.  One enhancement that
would favor later afternoon storm development and continue to at
least part of the overnight period is that slight amplification of
the upper level energy north of the area may allow for a subtle
shortwave to translate into the area which would foster ascent and
help encourage storm development along with increasing instability
across much of northeastern and east central KS.  A LLJ along with
isentropic ascent into the overnight period would help support more
widespread and heavy rainfall potential once again into the
overnight period.  Moisture flux trajectories look to favor mass
flux into the east Central KS counties.  This would add to overnight
totals from tonight.  At this point the exact amounts are unknown
but the general 48 hour total could be up to around 5 inches or more
over some of these east central areas.  Therefore, expect that some
minor to moderate river flooding could take place and locally high
amounts would lead to potential flash flood warnings as the main
hazards.  Afternoon storms could certain pose a similar downburst
wind risk as well.

For the rest of the week, the upper pattern begins to amplify with a
ridge becoming more pronounced over the central Plains and heat
returning into the upcoming weekend once again with heat index
values topping out around 100 at this point.  Periods of showers and
storms appear possible but low chance due to minor perturbations
along the right flank of the ridge which could impact at least
portions of the area.  A dirty ridge should be the story regardless,
as monsoonal moisture trajectory remain into the general regional
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

VFR expected at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK as low and mid clouds increase
overnight. Scattered TSRA is still anticipated to develop and
lift northeastward thru terminals in the 06Z-09Z time frame. High
end MVFR stratus is possible within the heavier storms during this
time. While confidence in guidance of storms' coverage and
locations are low, there is a distinct possibility for activity
to linger through the morning, especially at KTOP/KFOE. Additional
TSRA is possible towards the end of the period approaching from
the northwest.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
346 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-202100-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
346 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

There may be a few strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon
and Tonight. The main hazard will be damaging wind gusts this
afternoon with the focus changing to heavy rainfall overnight.
Localized flooding may be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible again on
Monday afternoon and possibly on Tuesday. The main hazards will
be damaging winds once again in the afternoon with heavy rainfall
into the overnight period on Monday which may lead to localized
flooding once again.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1131 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

KSZ021-034>037-200500-
Geary-Clay-Dickinson-Ottawa-Morris-
1131 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DICKINSON...SOUTHWESTERN GEARY...
WESTERN MORRIS...SOUTHEASTERN OTTAWA AND SOUTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTIES
UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1130 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Talmage to 3 miles northwest of Latimer to
near Burdick. Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms. Locally heavy rainfall may also occur with this line
of storms.

Locations impacted include...
Abilene, Herington, Chapman, Solomon, Enterprise, White City, Hope,
Woodbine, Manchester, Longford, Latimer, Talmage, Moonlight and
Burdick.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 267 and 289.

LAT...LON 3923 9733 3886 9675 3867 9669 3852 9676
      3852 9693 3861 9693 3861 9712 3884 9737
      3896 9737 3896 9746 3899 9746
TIME...MOT...LOC 0430Z 232DEG 17KT 3904 9730 3877 9689 3853 9684

Gargan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1158 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

KSZ035>037-200530-
Geary-Dickinson-Morris-
1158 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL DICKINSON...SOUTH
CENTRAL GEARY AND NORTHWESTERN MORRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

At 1157 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles west of White City, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
White City, Woodbine and Latimer.

LAT...LON 3884 9699 3902 9673 3889 9654 3870 9691
TIME...MOT...LOC 0457Z 232DEG 19KT 3882 9683

Gargan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1218 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020

KSZ021-022-035-036-200545-
Geary-Clay-Dickinson-Riley-
1218 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DICKINSON...
NORTHWESTERN GEARY...SOUTHWESTERN RILEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CLAY
COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM CDT...

At 1217 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wakefield, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm. This storm will also produce brief heavy rainfall.

Locations impacted include...
Wakefield, Milford and Milford Lake.

LAT...LON 3917 9722 3939 9697 3918 9672 3900 9706
TIME...MOT...LOC 0517Z 233DEG 14KT 3917 9705

Gargan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1243 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020

KSZ021-034-035-200615-
Clay-Dickinson-Ottawa-
1243 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DICKINSON...EASTERN
OTTAWA AND SOUTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

At 1243 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles northwest of Niles, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bennington, Wells, Manchester, Longford and Niles.

LAT...LON 3925 9750 3916 9724 3896 9746 3896 9756
      3901 9765
TIME...MOT...LOC 0543Z 216DEG 26KT 3902 9751

Teefey

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1250 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020

KSZ020-034-200615-
Cloud-Ottawa-
1250 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN OTTAWA AND SOUTHWESTERN
CLOUD COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

At 1249 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles north of Beverly, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Minneapolis, Delphos, Tescott and Ada.

LAT...LON 3940 9793 3921 9759 3896 9790 3896 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0549Z 222DEG 30KT 3908 9798

Teefey

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
115 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020

KSZ020-034-200645-
Cloud-Ottawa-
115 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN OTTAWA AND
SOUTHWESTERN CLOUD COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM CDT...

At 115 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles east of Ada, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Minneapolis, Glasco, Delphos and Ada.

LAT...LON 3922 9793 3942 9783 3932 9743 3904 9778
      3917 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0615Z 229DEG 25KT 3918 9779

Teefey