Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
638 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020

Active weather dominates our short-term period as a strong system
impacts the region. The focus for this evening will be on timing and
placement of thunderstorm development and severity potential.
Attention then turns to hazards associated with an advancing cold
front set to move through the CWA tomorrow.

20Z water vapor shows a cut-off upper low spinning over the AZ/
Mexico border, and an upper trough digging into the northwestern
CONUS. At the surface, the ridge that was positioned over eastern
KS/western MO yesterday is now located over the Carolina coasts.
A deepening surface low was sitting over central KS at mid
afternoon. With the aid of southerly flow, dewpoints have steadily
increased today and are now in the low to mid 50s in eastern KS
and a dryline is evident on surface maps extending from the low,
southward into OK and TX. The warm and moistening atmosphere has
led to further destabilization of our airmass with afternoon CAPE
values ranging from 1000 J/kg near the NE state border to 2500
J/kg in south-central portions of KS. A low level jet is progged
to strengthen near and just south of I-70 after 00Z, which is also
when the HRRR and RAP, in agreement with some other convective
allowing models (CAMS), show thunderstorm initiation over central
and northeastern KS. Effective bulk shear values are forecast to
range from about 30 to 40 kts. The combination of shear and CAPE
could allow for some healthy updrafts leading to strong to severe
thunderstorms. The main concerns will be large hail and damaging
downburst wind. Storms should weaken after midnight but scattered
showers may linger into Sunday morning.

Attention then turns to the progression of a sharp cold front as it
marches across the area tomorrow. North-northwest winds quickly
increase behind the front and will become sustained between 25 and
35 mph with gusts to near 55 mph possible at times during the
afternoon. Thus, a High Wind Warning has been issued for the western
CWA with a Wind Advisory for the eastern half. Depending on the
timing of the front, another round of strong to severe storms will
be possible tomorrow afternoon just ahead of the boundary in
eastern KS. Stratiform light rain is expected behind the boundary
and efficient CAA will cause temperatures to plummet throughout
the day. A wintry mix of precipitation is even possible in
northern and north-central KS late in the day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020

Unseasonably cool temperatures will then settle in for the week
in the wake of this weekend's system. Temps early Monday will
likely be in the upper 20s with afternoon temps only warming into
the 40s (feeling more like late February). Tuesday morning also
looks to be below freezing area-wide with locations in northern KS
experiencing sub-freezing conditions again Wednesday and Thursday
morning. While temperatures moderate a bit through the week, we
will remain below average with large scale troughing in place over
a wide swath of the country. A return to more seasonable
conditions can be expected next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020

Main concern will be convection through 06Z, primarily at TOP and
FOE. Short term models suggest development at TOP and FOE in the
01Z to 04Z time period. Isolated tsra may affect MHK after 01Z.
Forecast soundings suggest mvfr cigs developing after 06Z and
lowering to IFR after 10Z. A strong cold front will move through
the terminals in the 16Z to 19Z time period. Winds will shift to
the northwest and increase to around 22 kts with gusts up to
48 kts at MHK and around 37 kts at TOP and FOE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM CDT Sunday for
KSZ011-012-023-024-026-038>040-054>056-058-059.

High Wind Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM CDT Sunday for
KSZ008>010-020>022-034>037.

&&

SHORT TERM...Teefey
LONG TERM...Teefey
AVIATION...53

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
408 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-122115-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
408 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A few strong to severe storms are possible this evening for the
outlook area. Storms are most likely to form in central Kansas
before moving eastward into the area. Primary hazards with any
storms that develop are large hail and damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Very gusty northerly winds are expected Sunday into Sunday
evening, with sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph and gusts of 55 mph
possible. A High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory have been issued
for the area.

A few strong to severe storms could develop Sunday afternoon,
mainly along and near Interstate 35. Large hail, damaging wind and
a tornado or two will be possible.

Overnight low temperatures are forecast to be below freezing from
Sunday night through at least mid-week. These temperatures will
damage unprotected and sensitive vegetation.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

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