Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Topeka, KS

491 
WWUS53 KTOP 112114
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
414 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

KSC003-031-112145-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0147.000000T0000Z-200711T2145Z/
Anderson-Coffey-
414 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ANDERSON AND SOUTHEASTERN COFFEY COUNTIES...

At 413 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles northeast of
Neosho Falls, moving southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Colony, Westphalia and Le Roy. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3814 9570 3825 9551 3804 9519 3804 9562
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 303DEG 37KT 3808 9549 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$
JP

604 
WWUS53 KTOP 112124
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
424 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

KSC003-031-112134-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0147.000000T0000Z-200711T2145Z/
Anderson-Coffey-
424 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN ANDERSON AND
SOUTHEASTERN COFFEY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However small hail and
gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3814 9570 3825 9551 3804 9519 3804 9562
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 313DEG 48KT 3797 9535 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1250 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

A subtle shortwave was seen in the 07Z water vapor imagery moving
across eastern NEB. Meanwhile an upper ridge remained centered
over NM and the southwestern U.S. and the mean westerlies remained
over the northern tier of the country. At the surface, a
mesoscale high pressure system associated with convection was
building into southeast NEB and an outflow boundary has moved into
north central KS.

&&

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

Convective allowing models have been trending dryer with
convection over the forecast area this morning. It appears from
the 00Z TOP RAOB that an elevated mixed layer has advected over
the forecast area with 700MB temps warming to around +12C. This
has increased the convective inhibition for surface based parcels.
And profiler data show a weak low level jet already veering to
the southwest. This limited convergence and moisture transport
along with the CIN is probably the cause for the weakening of the
MCS as it moves southeast. So the question becomes how does this
affect the forecast for the rest of the day? Models in general are
slower with the progression of a synoptic scale front and there
is still a fairly moist boundary layer over the region with models
progs of MUCAPE between 4000 and 5000 J/kg. Forecast soundings
still show warm air at 700MB with possibly some slight cooling
through the day. With an outflow or frontal boundary in the area,
there could be some redevelopment in the afternoon. So have held
onto some chance POPs across east central KS through the
afternoon. Deep layer shear is sufficient for organized updrafts.
So with the very unstable airmass expected, there could be some
severe storms with large hail and damaging downdrafts.

Highs today are expected to be similar to yesterday since there
isn't a big change in airmass. Although convection could throw a
wrench into the forecast if it develops early in the afternoon. The
cold front should eventually push through this evening bringing an
end to precip chances and lows in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

Models continue to show the pattern flattening out through the
middle of next week. This could allow for some weak perturbations
to move across northern KS while a frontal boundary slides south
into the forecast area. As a result there are small chances for
precip spread out through the forecast beginning Monday night.
Confidence in these POPs is below average since the waves are
relatively small scale. The ECMWF continues to show the mid level
ridge reamplifying over the central plains by Friday and it brings
in some hot air as a result. The other models are not as strong
with the ridge and are not quite as hot. So have kept highs in the
mid and upper 90s for Friday. But spread among the NBM members
shows highs around 100 are not out of the realm of possibility.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

Storms continue to fire north of the terminals associated with an
area of convergence. These storms are the main aviation concerns
within this forecast period. Currently, still have VCTS for the
storm mention as they should remain isolated to scattered. Updates
will be made soon if these storms will track more directly into
the TOP/FOE terminals which appear to be the most likely sites to
be directly impacted over the next 2 to 4 hours. KMHK is less
likely to see impacts but could still see storms, so have left
mention of VCTS at this time. All of this activity is expected to
push south of the terminals by 23Z and winds remain northerly into
the overnight period as the boundary passes to the south.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Drake

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
317 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-122030-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
317 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms continue this afternoon
into early evening mainly across east central Kansas. Some of
these storms could produce large to very large hail and damaging
wind gusts. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is some potential for an extended period of widespread hot
weather by the end of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
329 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 PM     HAIL             5 N WESTPHALIA          38.25N 95.49W
07/11/2020  E1.00 INCH       ANDERSON           KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

SMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
343 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     HAIL             3 SSE HARRIS            38.28N 95.42W
07/11/2020  M3.00 INCH       ANDERSON           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURE 3.25 INCH HAIL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0339 PM     HAIL             5 W GARNETT             38.28N 95.33W
07/11/2020  E2.00 INCH       ANDERSON           KS   PUBLIC

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
353 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

KSZ040-056-112115-
Douglas-Franklin-
353 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 351 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Globe, moving southeast at 45 mph. A second strong thunderstorm was
located 3 miles west of Lawrence, moving southeast at 45 MPH.

Hail up to nickle size and wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be
possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lawrence, Ottawa, Baldwin City, Eudora, Wellsville, Lecompton,
Clinton, Lone Star, Rantoul, Pleasant Grove, Vinland, Clinton Lake
and Globe.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 188 and 198.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 193 and 202.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3850 9507 3884 9550 3905 9542 3897 9519
      3896 9518 3897 9517 3893 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 304DEG 49KT 3881 9538

Gargan

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
354 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0353 PM     HAIL             5 SSW GARNETT           38.22N 95.28W
07/11/2020  E1.75 INCH       ANDERSON           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
359 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0357 PM     HAIL             4 NW LONE ELM           38.13N 95.30W
07/11/2020  E1.00 INCH       ANDERSON           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SMB