Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1115 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

Focus is on evolution of convection across Nebraska and
progression southeast into KS overnight. Water vapor showed main
upper wave across MT with weaker subtle waves across south central
NE and northeast OK. Westerly 500mb flow is finally beginning to
re-establish itself across the region however you have to go up to
MT/WY and the Dakotas to see flow AOA 30kts at 500mb. At the
sfc...cold front was draped from eastern SD through western NE
into northeast CO.

For tonight...expect t-storms to develop in the vicinity of the
front across central NE after 00z and given weak mid lvl flow
storms should congeal into a cluster and form a cold pool rather
quickly. After 00z 850mb LLJ of 30-40kts will nose up toward the
NE/KS state line and should support any ongoing convection diving
southeast into KS. All CAM models suggest a complex sweeping
southeast through the CWA after midnight with damaging winds
being the primary hazard overnight along with 1-2 inches of rain
especially along the western flank of the complex where
some backbuilding/training may take place.

The evolution of the cold pool and resulting placement of the
outflow boundary will determine where the better chcs for any
severe risk develops later tomorrow. At this point it appears that
the better chcs will be across southern KS closer to OK while our
area may see some lingering elevated convection through midday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

The region will remain in northwest flow aloft however weak
ridging from the sfc to 805mb will attempt to nose into the area
tomorrow night. This would keep any organized LLJ focused
southeast of the area. Upslope flow should allow another cluster
of storms to form across northeast CO/southwest NE however
confidence in how far east this cluster can get without better
850mb flow remains in question. At this point have left in slight
chcs after 6z but this scenario is something that will need to be
watched.

The risk for storms will persist through Friday night into
Saturday as the area remains on the periphery of the cap and
overnight clusters of storms attempt to dive south southeast. It
appears that sfc ridging and a sharpening upper trough to our east
may finally put an end to the storm chcs by Saturday night and
Sunday. Thereafter it looks to turn hotter and mainly dry with
very warm mid level temps forecast by mid week which may keep
conds dry despite a frontal boundary forecast to sag south into
the area by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1109 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

Severe thunderstorms have developed late this evening in NE and
are moving toward northeastern KS. I slowed down timing of storm
arrival slightly in updated TAFs, but generally expecting strong
to severe storms containing heavy rain, damaging wind gusts and
reduced visibilities to arrive at KMHK a little after 07Z and
closer to 09Z at KTOP/KFOE. Rain will linger for a few hours and
should clear terminals by late Thursday morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Teefey

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Topeka KS
329 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-092030-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
329 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

A complex of thunderstorms will move southeast across the area
late tonight. Damaging winds and heavy rains will the primary
hazard with the storms overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms will be possible late Thursday night and again
Friday night into midday Saturday across the area. Some of those
storms may also be severe but confidence in timing and location
remains low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late tonight. Spotters are
encouraged to report wind estimates or wind measurements
including any damage to NWS Topeka.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
113 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 AM     TSTM WND GST     6 N GLASCO              39.45N 97.83W
07/09/2020  E65 MPH          CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED WIND SPEEDS AT LEAST 65 MPH. ALSO
            HAD TREE DAMAGE BUT THE EXTENT OF THE DAMAGE
            WAS UNKNOWN.

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
142 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 NE MARYSVILLE         39.86N 96.63W
07/09/2020  M69 MPH          MARSHALL           KS   AWOS

            MEASURED AT THE MARYSVILLE AIRPORT.

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
144 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0112 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 S WASHINGTON          39.78N 97.06W
07/09/2020  M62 MPH          WASHINGTON         KS   MESONET

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
207 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0206 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSW BAILEYVILLE       39.79N 96.21W
07/09/2020                   NEMAHA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VERY STRONG WIND REPORTED, SPEEDS WERE
            UNKNOWN. POWER IS OUT AT THE LOCATION.

&&

BAERG