Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1153 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020

Cloud cover has been slow to clear out in far eastern KS, having
only scattered out in the last hour or so as of 20Z. The rest of the
area has seen clearing skies with mesoscale subsidence behind this
morning's storm complex. 20Z water vapor imagery shows the remaining
MCV well off to our east with a shortwave in CO ahead of a broad
trough over the Pacific Northwest. As a result of the clouds, have
trimmed highs for a small eastern part of the forecast area to the
low to mid 80s, while everyone else should still reach the upper 80s
to low 90s with more insolation occurring this afternoon. Regarding
thunderstorms late this afternoon/early this evening, have backed
down on PoPs with only low-end chances remaining through tonight.
The HRRR has been showing a decreasing trend throughout the day
likely due to less destabilization, with only a few isolated storms
popping up in east central KS after 02Z. Since CIN increases by this
time, thinking this might be a result of speed convergence with a
strengthening LLJ later this evening. In any case, any storms that
develop are expected to be isolated and short-lived. North central
KS could see storms overnight associated with the shortwave
currently in CO; however, these are expected to weaken as they move
northeast through the state.

Southwesterly flow is expected to keep plenty of moisture in the
area on Sunday with hot temperatures in the 90s area-wide. Heat
indices are forecast to reach the 98 to 105 degree range. Have held
off on issuing a Heat Advisory for now, but one may be warranted if
these trends continue and confidence in reaching criteria increases.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020

The broad trough previously mentioned will slowly progress into the
western US and then weaken later this week, with embedded waves
bringing small precipitation chances on and off throughout the week.
The main story will be the persistent heat as high temperatures
reach the 90s each day this week and morning lows only fall back to
the 70s. These hot temperatures with dew points in the 70s will
combine to bring heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s, so
we will need to monitor the potential for heat headlines.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020

Showers and thunderstorms move through the northern forecast area
early this morning--mainly between 08Z and 12z--with scattered
storms before then. These storms exit around 12Z with VFR
conditions forecast for the rest of the TAF period. Winds veer to
the south shortly after 06z and increase to 15 to 25 kts during
the daytime hours, with gusts subsiding in the evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Picha
LONG TERM...Picha
AVIATION...Skow

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1024 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-290330-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
1024 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms may move through after midnight tonight and exit by
sunrise. Some storms may produce gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Conditions will turn hot and humid for much of this week, with
temperatures in the 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s to low
100s.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

KDS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
127 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

KSZ008-020-034-280700-
Republic-Cloud-Ottawa-
127 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN OTTAWA...REPUBLIC
AND CLOUD COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM CDT...

At 127 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Superior to Montrose to near Victor.
Movement was east at 50 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Concordia, Belleville, Glasco, Scandia, Delphos, Jamestown,
Courtland, Cuba, Norway, Republic and Munden.

LAT...LON 4000 9745 3983 9742 3920 9769 3921 9793
      4000 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0627Z 264DEG 44KT 4000 9811 3979 9808 3923 9830

Skow

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