Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
609 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020

Recent water vapor imagery showing some mid-level moisture streaming
northeast from northwest Mexico into the Great Lakes as a shortwave
moves east across the northern Plains into the latter region. A weak
convective-induced vorticity maxima was exiting northeast Kansas
with southwest winds aloft into the somewhat cooler air associated
with the vort max keeping weak, high-based showers going across the
northern counties. The continued cloud with this activity has kept
temperatures from breaching the mid 80s in the north, though warmer
temps into central Kansas have allowed for a cumulus field to
develop northwest of SLN, with other recent development near the
slow-moving cold front farther northwest in north central Kansas.

Objective analysis showing CIN slowly diminishing near the front but
weak convergence and early-day activity should help in keeping
much of the peak-heating development in check. Modest shear should
keep supercells brief with downburst winds the main hazard where
the best heating has been achieved. The front slowly settles into
the northern counties tonight and should be the focus for more
activity, with outflows of decent depth/coverage leading to more
storms as the low-level jet forms. Precipitable water values of 1.5
to 2 inches support some heavy rain concern, though with the jet
veered in response to the main wave to the northeast, a persistent
training event is not expected. Convection could be reinvigorated
late tonight into Saturday if another MCV forms from High Plains
convection. The weak boundary will likely be in/near the area as
well and will keep above-normal precip chances in place through the
day. Shear again remains modest and should keep severe potential
isolated and again a wind and possibly hail threat. Given early-day
convection/debris potential, have lower high temps in the east but
the changes may be not be enough.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020

Until the frontal boundary pushes north, will need to keep some PoPs
going into at least late Saturday night, however the deeper
southwest flow developing east of a deepening western CONUS trough
should help usher this north by midday Sunday. The upper trough in
southern California today weakens as it is ejected northeast but
could be enough to produce more scattered convection Sunday into
Sunday night. A modest isentropic lift regime could linger into the
midweek in mainly eastern Kansas as the western trough pushes east
keeping local surface wind southeasterly under modest west to
northwest flow aloft for PoPs near July 1 normals. Outside any
other daytime periods of lingering precip, highs should bump up
to be slightly above normal with dewpoints high enough to bring some
concern for consistent heat indices reaching near 100. With wet
ground conditions quite possible from previous rain events
keeping RH values up, Sunday could be the most uncomfortable day of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020

Isolated storms continue to be possible this evening especially in
the vicinity of KMHK, then additional thunderstorms will develop
and become more widespread after 05z tonight. These storms should
move out of the area by 12z, but will have to reevaluate timing at
the 06z issuance. Winds will remain generally out of the south to
southwest, but may vary a bit as storms develop. There are some
hints of lower ceilings developing around 2-3 kft after sunrise
at all TAF sites, but will wait for more certainty before going
more than scattered in coverage.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Laflin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
346 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-272100-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
346 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorm chances spread south and east from north central
through northeast and east central Kansas late this afternoon
through the night. Some of the storms through the evening hours
may be severe and produce large hail and damaging winds as well
as locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Strong to severe storms will be possible again in the late
afternoon and evening on Saturday across the entire area with
damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall, and hail being the main
hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation should not be needed through tonight. Spotters
are encouraged to report rainfall amounts over one inch to the
National Weather Service in Topeka.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

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