River Flood Warning 37, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
356 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

As of 20Z Wednesday afternoon an active weather pattern remains
across the Central Plains. Water vapor imagery reveals WNW
midlevel flow across the region with a broad, cutoff low across
northwestern NE. A lead shortwave trough was progressing across
the mid-MO valley region. At the surface a diffuse surface frontal
zone extended from east-central CO into southwestern NE into
northern KS and finally into eastern IA. This boundary was
initially the focal point for persistent shower/storm activity
this morning and early afternoon. Near-daily record Pwat values
of 2-2.2" have yielded very heavy rainfall rates with hourly rates
exceeding 2". Numerous reports of flash-flooding have been
received from Nemaha and Marshall counties. Furthermore,
widespread rainfall amounts up to 5" have been reported within the
same area. Sufficient boundary layer heating has allow for
precipitation to take on more of a convective nature with
1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE generally along and south of I-70. This
has allowed for additional development further south. Overall
shear profile is weak and shouldn't foster any severe weather
threat. As the shortwave trough lifts to the ENE, the bulk of the
current activity should progress with it.

We then turn our attention westward to the main midlevel trough
across western NE, which is aiding in thunderstorm development
across the High Plains. This activity is progged to grow upscale
and progress southeastward as an MCS. Current indications suggest
the best potential for severe storms should remain southwest of
the forecast area. The MCS may spawn a MCV that could aid in
additional develop in eastern KS overnight. Confidence is low in
this scenario, so will keep rain chances to generally 50 or less.

As the aforementioned main midlevel wave ejects into the Central
Plains Thursday, more thunderstorm development is expected by
late morning into the afternoon. Again, the severe weather threat
appears low, but the very moist environment will remain, setting
the stage for more heavy rainfall. Given the very saturated soils
and elevated creeks/ponds across northern KS, have extended the
Flash-Flood Watch through 03Z Friday. Overall expect an additional
1-3" of rainfall with locally heavier amounts likely.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

Transitioning into the extended period, the potential for showers
and thunderstorms will continue Thursday night into Friday as the
main midlevel trough slowly progresses eastward. The primary
concern look to be for more heavy rainfall.

Beyond Friday, below normal temperatures and predominately dry
conditions look to take shape for the weekend into next week.
Afternoon highs look to remain in the 70s to near 80 with lows in
50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

An active TAF period is expected with on-and-off shower and
thunderstorm activity. While predominate conditions should remain
MVFR to perhaps VFR, brief periods of IFR to LIFR VSBY will be
probable with the passing showers and thunderstorms. Prevailing
MVFR to IFR conditions should overspread the area after 06Z with
occasional rain showers and storms continue through the morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for KSZ008>012-
020>023.

&&

SHORT TERM...Baerg
LONG TERM...Baerg
AVIATION...Baerg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
336 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-302045-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
336 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue into tonight. Heavy rainfall
leading to localized flash flooding looks to be the primary
concern.

Minor river flooding of some rivers and creeks in north central
and northeast Kansas will continue through late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely Thursday with more chances
into Friday. Additional local heavy rainfall may occur, leading to
additional flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 WSW BEATTIE           39.82N 96.52W
07/29/2020                   MARSHALL           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER SEVERAL COUNTY ROADS. DEPTH AS
            MUCH AS 2 FEET DEEP.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
333 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 SE OKETO              39.91N 96.52W
07/29/2020                   MARSHALL           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER SEVERAL COUNTY ROADS. DEPTH UP TO
            2 FEET IN SOME PLACES.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
335 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SSW BAILEYVILLE       39.78N 96.23W
07/29/2020                   NEMAHA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER OVER 120TH ROAD.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
416 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

KSZ039-292145-
Shawnee-
416 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SHAWNEE COUNTY UNTIL 445
PM CDT...

At 416 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Silver Lake, moving east at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Topeka, Rossville and Silver Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 between mile markers 347 and 355.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 175 and 181.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3898 9591 3914 9595 3916 9562 3896 9562
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 265DEG 13KT 3906 9585

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