Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Great Falls, MT

924 
WWUS55 KTFX 010207
SVSTFX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
807 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2020

MTC051-010216-
/O.EXP.KTFX.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-200801T0215Z/
Liberty MT-
807 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LIBERTY COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 815 PM MDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Great Falls.

LAT...LON 4831 11074 4826 11075 4814 11124 4845 11119
      4850 11100
TIME...MOT...LOC 0206Z 340DEG 17KT 4820 11093 

$$

TP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 525
PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2020

Updated Aviation Discussion

.SYNOPSIS...

Hot and mostly dry weather continues through the weekend as a ridge
remains overhead. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible every afternoon through Monday, with any showers and storms
quickly dying after sunset.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A few isolated storms are beginning to pop up across the area this
afternoon, mainly along an old outflow boundary formed from a
decaying MCS over Eastern MT. Most of these should not be severe,
though SPC has highlighted the area near the aforementioned boundary
for a marginal risk of severe storms. Storms near this boundary will
need to be watched closely for gusty winds and hail to the size of
quarters. Elsewhere, storms should generally be weaker, though brief
gusty winds cannot be ruled out.

Tomorrow will not look that much different from today, nor will any
day through Monday for that matter. Upper level ridging remains
fully in control of our weather into early next week, which will
keep things hot and mostly dry, save for a few isolated
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. Will have to keep an
eye on any storms for dry lightning and outflow winds, but these
impacts should be isolated. Temperatures will remain above average
through Monday, with the peak of the heat coming Sunday or Monday.
This will continue to create a low to moderate heat risk for those
who are sensitive to the heat.

For those wondering when this heat wave will end, it still appears
that Tuesday will be the day to mark on the calendar. The upper
level ridge will break down as an upper level trough pushes in,
which will knock temperatures to around climatological average for
early August (low to mid 80s). Temperatures will be highly dependent
on exact timing of the arrival of this trough, though the NBM has
seemed to converge a bit with some of the more recent runs. In any
case, the main story on Tuesday may end up being the winds, with
wind gusts across Northern Montana expected to exceed 20-25 knots.
This will be a time period that needs to be watched for heightened
fire danger.

Looking further into next week, upper level ridging should begin to
build back in, but will not be as strong as what it will be over the
weekend, but temperatures should recover a bit as we head into later
next week.

Ludwig &&

.AVIATION...
Updated 525 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2020 (01/00Z TAF Period)

Upper level ridge of high pressure remains centered over the
Northern Rockies for generally light flow aloft with VFR conditions
prevailing. Isolated thunderstorms that developed this afternoon
near the mountains could bring some brief MVFR conditions to nearby
sites as well as some localized gusty and erratic winds through this
evening. Partial cloud-cover from thunderstorm remnants could
continue across the region past this evening before skies clear
again late tonight. Surface winds from the east to southeast will
persist across the north-central MT plains tonight with winds
otherwise light and variable outside of thunderstorm activity this
evening. Hoenisch

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

NOTE: Amendments not scheduled for Ennis (KEKS) due to ongoing
runway closure.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire danger ratings across the region range from moderate up to high
in some areas as fuels continue to dry. Lightning associated with
isolated daily afternoon thunderstorms could initiate new fire
starts, in addition to lightning related hold-overs that produce
delayed ignition. A frontal system arrives on Tuesday, which is
expected to lower temperatures back to near seasonal normals, but
also cause gusty winds that could yield higher rates of spread on
any new or existing wildfires. Fire weather headlines may be
warranted early next week, so continue to monitor the forecast for
updates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  92  62  93 /  10  10  20  10
CTB  59  89  58  90 /  10  10  20  10
HLN  60  94  60  94 /  10  10  30  10
BZN  57  93  57  94 /  10  10  10  10
WYS  45  87  47  88 /  10  20  10  10
DLN  55  90  55  90 /  20  10  10   0
HVR  61  91  61  92 /   0   0  10   0
LWT  58  86  56  88 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
228 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2020

MTZ047-312115-
Blaine MT-
228 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL BLAINE COUNTY UNTIL
315 PM MDT...

At 228 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southwest of Hays, or 17 miles west of Zortman, moving south at
5 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central
Blaine County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4792 10889 4779 10889 4778 10893 4793 10900
      4794 10885 4792 10883
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 343DEG 5KT 4788 10889

CMC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
245 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2020

MTZ011-013-047-312130-
Chouteau MT-Hill MT-Blaine MT-
245 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BLAINE...
SOUTHEASTERN HILL AND EASTERN CHOUTEAU COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM MDT...

At 245 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southeast of Parker School, or 28 miles east of Big Sandy,
moving south at 5 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern
Blaine, southeastern Hill and eastern Chouteau Counties.

LAT...LON 4803 10953 4815 10965 4820 10949 4809 10933
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 000DEG 6KT 4813 10951

CMC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
312 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2020

MTZ047-312200-
Blaine MT-
312 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BLAINE COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM MDT...

At 312 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 19
miles southeast of Parker School, or 32 miles east of Big Sandy,
moving southeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Blaine
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4797 10914 4785 10931 4807 10953 4811 10953
      4815 10943
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 317DEG 17KT 4806 10943

CMC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
615 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2020

MTZ045-010045-
Liberty-
615 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL LIBERTY COUNTY...

At 614 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles northwest of
Chester, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Chester, Lothair and Joplin.

This includes Highway 2 between mile markers 309 and 332.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Great Falls.

LAT...LON 4857 11075 4848 11076 4832 11125 4871 11126
      4878 11107
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 332DEG 24KT 4859 11109

TP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
643 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2020

MTZ011-010130-
Hill-
643 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HILL COUNTY...

At 643 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles east of
Gildford, or 20 miles west of Havre, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Beaver Creek and Kremlin.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 2 between mile markers 355 and 376.
 Highway 87 between mile markers 103 and 109.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Great Falls.

LAT...LON 4865 11033 4873 11015 4851 10971 4835 11016
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 333DEG 18KT 4859 11011

TP