Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Great Falls, MT

792 
WWUS55 KTFX 312043
SVSTFX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
243 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2020

MTC005-015-041-312053-
/O.EXP.KTFX.SV.W.0045.000000T0000Z-200731T2045Z/
Blaine MT-Hill MT-Chouteau MT-
243 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL BLAINE...
SOUTHEASTERN HILL AND EASTERN CHOUTEAU COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 245 PM
MDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small hail
is still possible with this thunderstorm.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Great Falls.

LAT...LON 4801 10952 4820 10971 4829 10944 4810 10918
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 338DEG 8KT 4811 10946 

$$

CMC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1120 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2020

Aviation section updated.

.UPDATE...

No updates needed this morning as the forecast largely remains on
track. Seeing a few clouds move into our southwestern areas, but
these should not impact the forecast in any meaningful way.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Expect little change in the weather over the next few days, as hot
and mainly dry conditions continue. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will remain a possibility every afternoon and
evening, particularly over the mountains. A disturbance late
Monday into Tuesday may bring some increased precipitation
chances, along with gusty winds and cooler weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 1120 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2020 (31/18Z TAF Period)

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through much of the forecast
period. Today will be warm with perhaps some isolated thunderstorms
in the southwest. Evening thunderstorms may also develop across the
area, and perhaps bring brief MVFR conditions to any affected sites.
Confidence is only low to moderate, and have maintained PROB30
mentioning for some central and southwest sites to convey this
threat. VFR conditions will then return to most sites for tonight
into Saturday. Anglin/Ludwig

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

NOTE: Amendments not scheduled for Ennis (KEKS) due to ongoing
runway closure.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2020/

Today through Monday...
Convection lasted a bit longer than expected over the northeastern
part of the CWA, likely owing to some elevated instability and
slightly better moisture above the nocturnal inversion. This
activity should be either out of the CWA or largely dissipated by
6am. Fri will be another hot and partly to mostly sunny day
across much of the area. There will be the chance for more
isolated showers and thunderstorms sprinkled around the area this
afternoon and evening. The best chances are likely to be along the
Hi-Line and east of Great Falls, and also in SW Montana.

Model guidance suggests that this ridge remains anchored pretty
much overhead or along the western border of the CWA, so isolated
showers and thunderstorms will continue to pop up each afternoon
through Mon. Best chances overall are likely to be in the higher
terrain, but certainly some convection could come down to lower
elevations as it did Thu. Increasing SW'ly upper level flow ahead
of an approaching trough may bring better chances for showers and
storms Mon afternoon and evening, especially for lower elevations
that likely will remain fairly dry otherwise. If more clouds and
precip develop during the day on Mon, the high temp forecast that
day could miss on the high side. Under this ridge, temps will
remain warmer than normal, with highs for most lower elevations in
the low to mid 90s. This prolonged stretch of warm temperatures
will pose a moderate risk for heat- related illnesses for
sensitive groups, especially those without effective cooling
and/or adequate hydration. -Kredensor/Ludwig

Monday Night through next Friday...
Model guidance appears to remain in reasonably good agreement
that the ridge will be pushed off to the east later Mon into
Tues as an upper trough pushes inland from the Pac NW. A weak
surface cool front will push across the CWA Mon night into Tues,
with highs on Tues likely 5 to 10 degrees lower than Mon. Beyond
Tues, uncertainty increases in terms of when ridging will rebuild
across the region. Some guidance brings it back as early as
Wed, but most seems to hold off until Thurs and Fri. Thus the
forecast currently reflects little change in temps between Tue and
Wed, with a warm-up for the latter part of the week. Showers and
a few storms are expected Tues as the disturbance crosses the
area, with decreased rain chances and clearer skies forecast from
Wed onward. However, expect changes to the forecast for the second
half of next week owing to the uncertainty. -Kredensor

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire danger ratings across the region range from moderate up to high
in some areas as fuels continue to dry. Lightning associated with
isolated daily afternoon thunderstorms could initiate new fire
starts, in addition to lightning related hold-overs that produce
delayed ignition. A frontal system arrives on Tuesday, which is
expected to lower temperatures back to near seasonal normals, but
also cause gusty winds that could yield higher rates of spread on
any new or existing wildfires. Fire weather headlines may be
warranted early next week, so continue to monitor the forecast for
updates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  92  61  91  61 /   0  10  20  10
CTB  90  58  89  57 /  10  10  20  20
HLN  93  59  93  59 /   0  10  20  20
BZN  93  56  93  56 /  10  10  20  10
WYS  87  45  87  46 /  20  20  30  10
DLN  90  54  89  54 /  30  20  20  10
HVR  93  60  91  61 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  88  57  86  56 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls