Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Great Falls, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
244 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorms will exit Central MT this evening, as cooler air
moves into the region for Wednesday. A warming trend is expected
from Thursday into the weekend, with afternoon temperatures
averaging about 5 to 10 degrees above normal on Saturday. The next
chance for storms is on Friday, as a quick moving upper level
disturbance moves through the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...Severe storms continue to push eastward
through the region. The main threat will be large hail and
damaging winds. An isolated tornado, mainly east of a line from
Havre to Stanford would be possible. Most severe storms should
exit our region by 7 PM or so. It turns a bit cooler on Wednesday,
but warmer air returns on Thursday.

Friday through Tuesday...There will be a chance for showers on
Friday, as an upper level disturbance moves through. The main
concern over the weekend and into early next week will be the
potential for warmer temperatures over the weekend /increase
winds. Wind speeds could approach high wind warning criteria from
Sunday into Monday over North Central MT. Temperatures do start to
cool a bit below normal by next Mon/Tue. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 1155 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2020 (18Z TAF Period)

A cold front will move from west to east across the region this
afternoon. Thunderstorms, some with hail/strong winds will likely
accompany the front. An isolated tornado is possible across Central
MT. The storms exit our region generally by 01z Wednesday. Generally
VFR conditions expected overnight and into the day Wednesday. Brusda

For more detailed aviation weather and hazard information, please
see: weather.gov/zlc

NOTE: Amendments not scheduled for Ennis (KEKS) due to ongoing
runway closure.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  72  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  52  68  45  77 /   0  10   0   0
HLN  48  73  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  46  76  44  83 /  10   0   0  10
WYS  38  70  38  76 /  50   0   0   0
DLN  44  74  43  81 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  53  73  49  81 /  10  10   0   0
LWT  47  70  46  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
343 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             3 SE HAVRE              48.51N 109.64W
07/07/2020  E0.25 INCH       HILL               MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ML

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
404 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2020

MTZ015-055-072230-
Madison-Gallatin-
404 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2020

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MADISON
AND CENTRAL GALLATIN COUNTIES...

At 404 PM MDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered 9 miles west of
Crescent Lake, or 25 miles west of Mammoth, moving east northeast at
45 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

These storms will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern
Madison and central Gallatin Counties.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 191 between mile markers 31 and 44.
 Highway 287 mile marker 14 and near mile marker 25.

Cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

LAT...LON 4502 11165 4532 11105 4508 11104 4507 11106
      4511 11110 4505 11115 4503 11111 4498 11110
      4488 11157
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 248DEG 40KT 4508 11120

RCG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
409 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2020

MTZ011-047-072245-
Hill MT-Blaine MT-
409 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLAINE COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

At 408 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorms
over Blaine County, moving east northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Chinook, Harlem, Hays, Fort Belknap, Turner, Lohman, Lodge Pole,
Lloyd, Hogeland, Zurich and Cleveland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
north central Montana.

LAT...LON 4874 10830 4874 10832 4844 10835 4844 10842
      4798 10844 4799 10860 4792 10864 4792 10888
      4788 10889 4800 10924 4830 10951 4898 10948
      4898 10825
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 247DEG 40KT 4843 10886

RCG

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