Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Great Falls, MT

874 
WWUS55 KTFX 050029
SVSTFX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
629 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2020

MTC027-050045-
/O.CON.KTFX.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-200705T0045Z/
Fergus MT-
629 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM MDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL FERGUS COUNTY...

At 629 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Roy, or 28
miles northeast of Lewistown, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

Locations impacted include...
Roy and Fergus. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Great Falls.

&&

LAT...LON 4727 10871 4724 10873 4724 10920 4741 10924
      4751 10871 4727 10867
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 262DEG 24KT 4735 10900 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

mpj

592 
WWUS55 KTFX 050043
SVSTFX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
643 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2020

MTC027-050053-
/O.EXP.KTFX.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-200705T0045Z/
Fergus MT-
643 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL FERGUS COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 645 PM MDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However heavy rain
is still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4727 10871 4724 10873 4724 10920 4741 10924
      4751 10871 4727 10867
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 262DEG 24KT 4736 10893 

$$

mpj

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
602 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2020

...AVIATION SECTION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

Showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon over Southwest
Montana, will become more widespread across much of central Montana
this evening. Some of these thunderstorms may produce locally heavy
rain, large hail, and damaging winds. Skies clear overnight with
fair and cooler weather Sunday and Monday. The next round of
widespread showers and thunderstorms arrives Tuesday afternoon
into Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Satellite and radar imagery show numerous showers beginning to
develop over Southwest Montana as of about 1pm. At surface, we
note dewpoint temperatures in the low to mid 50s across the
region, and a light easterly wind across the Judith Basin into
southern portions of the Rocky Mountain Front. Mesoanalysis
reveals CAPE near or in excess of 2000 J/kg, with effective shear
exceeding 40 kts. Collectively, these ingredients highlight a
quickly destabilizing atmosphere. The timing of these developing
storms appears completely consistent with the suite of short term
convection allowing model guidance. Thus, expectations for a busy
afternoon and evening of convection remains on track. Independence
Day recreation and evening festivities are likely to be
interrupted by widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some of these
thunderstorms are expected to become strong to severe. The
stronger storms will be capable of producing large hail and
damaging wind gusts. Those outdoors should keep in mind this
potential for hazardous thunderstorms and have a plan to seek
shelter should a storm move near their location.

Individual storms will move from southwest to northeast at 30 to
40 mph. Training of storms is possible, producing some potential
for localized street flooding. Overall this activity will move
away to the east overnight. Generally fair and slightly cooler
weather follows on Sunday, although a few ordinary thunderstorms
will be possible over far Southwest MT Sunday afternoon. -PN

Monday through next Saturday...an unsettled and active pattern
will continue across the Northern Rockies for much of the upcoming
work week, with transient ridging moving across the region near
the end of the work week to bring a period of drier weather. High
temperatures to start the period will be near to slightly below
climatological norms, with most areas climbing above normal by the
end of the work week and into the weekend. An upper level trough
lifting northeast within southwesterly flow Tuesday through
Tuesday night will bring the next best shot at showers and
thunderstorms, especially to Central and North Central Montana.
- Moldan

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 600 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2020 (00Z TAF Period)

Showers/thunderstorms are currently situated over much of the region
with the most robust activity north and east of KLWT. Some storms
will continue to produce strong wind gusts, hail, and downpours of
rain. MVFR conditions and mountains obscuration can be expected
during periods of precipitation. Most shower/storm activity should
end by 6Z but may persist longer for KLWT. Scattered showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm may return to the southwest terminal sunday
afternoon. RCG

NOTE: Amendments not scheduled for Ennis (KEKS) due to ongoing
runway closure.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  76  50  80 /  50  10  10  20
CTB  46  73  47  78 /  30   0   0  10
HLN  51  78  51  81 /  60  20  20  30
BZN  49  78  48  82 /  50  30  20  30
WYS  42  74  41  77 /  30  20  10  10
DLN  47  77  47  80 /  40  20  20  20
HVR  54  78  53  84 /  50  10   0  10
LWT  51  72  50  76 /  80  20  30  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
539 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2020

MTZ012-049-050015-
Cascade-Eastern Teton-
539 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL TETON AND
NORTHWESTERN CASCADE COUNTIES...

At 538 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Fairfield, or
19 miles southeast of Choteau, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fairfield and Sun River.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 200 between mile markers 138 and 139.
 Highway 89 between mile markers 9 and 25, and near mile marker 8.

When thunder roars, go indoors!

LAT...LON 4750 11204 4758 11204 4764 11198 4771 11185
      4753 11167
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 239DEG 17KT 4756 11198

JAF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
553 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2020

MTZ013-050030-
Chouteau-
553 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY...

At 552 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 16 miles west of Big
Sandy, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Virgelle and Kenilworth.

This includes Highway 87 between mile markers 56 and 76.

When thunder roars, go indoors!

LAT...LON 4800 11057 4820 11059 4830 11020 4793 11010
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 267DEG 26KT 4808 11045

JAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
555 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     HAIL             STANFORD                47.15N 110.22W
07/04/2020  E0.70 INCH       JUDITH BASIN       MT   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

ML

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
558 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2020

MTZ013-044-045-050030-
Chouteau-Liberty-Toole-
558 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN LIBERTY...SOUTHEASTERN
TOOLE AND NORTHWESTERN CHOUTEAU COUNTIES...

At 557 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 12 miles north of
The Knees, or 25 miles southwest of Chester, moving northeast at 25
mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lothair and Tiber Dam.

This includes Highway 2 between mile markers 309 and 316.

When thunder roars, go indoors!

LAT...LON 4807 11127 4825 11141 4857 11117 4825 11077
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 214DEG 21KT 4820 11127

JAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
559 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     HAIL             STANFORD                47.15N 110.22W
07/04/2020  M1.00 INCH       JUDITH BASIN       MT   PUBLIC

            PICTURE VIA TWITTER OF HAILSTONE NEXT TO
            QUARTER.

&&

ML

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
604 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2020

MTZ013-044>046-049-050030-
Chouteau-Liberty-Eastern Teton-Eastern Pondera-Toole-
604 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN PONDERA...
SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY...SOUTHEASTERN TOOLE...EAST CENTRAL TETON AND
WESTERN CHOUTEAU COUNTIES...

At 603 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles northeast of
Dutton, or 24 miles southeast of Conrad, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
The Knees.

When thunder roars, go indoors!

LAT...LON 4786 11149 4789 11163 4804 11174 4815 11162
      4825 11144 4794 11116
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 233DEG 24KT 4794 11156

JAF