Red Flag Warning 9, NWS Great Falls, MT

788 
WWUS85 KTFX 200951
RFWTFX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
351 AM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020

MTZ114-116>118-210400-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-200821T0400Z/
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest-
351 AM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 114, 116, 117, AND 118...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zones 114, 116, 117 and 118.

* TIMING...Through 10 PM MDT this evening.

* LIGHTNING...A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms.

* IMPACTS...Fires can ignite quickly and easily and spread 
  rapidly under these conditions with the increase in lightning 
  preceded by very warm and dry conditions.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusty and erratic outflow winds up to 50 mph 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

MTZ112-113-115-210400-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0009.200820T1800Z-200821T0400Z/
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
Hill and Blaine Counties-Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
351 AM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM MDT
THIS EVENING FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 112, 113, AND 115...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zones 112, 113 and 115.

* TIMING...Through 10 PM MDT this evening.

* LIGHTNING...A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms.

* IMPACTS...Fires can ignite quickly and easily and spread 
  rapidly under these conditions with the increase in lightning 
  preceded by very warm and dry conditions.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusty and erratic outflow winds up to 50 mph 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

609 
WWUS85 KTFX 210253
RFWTFX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
853 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020

MTZ114-116>118-210400-
/O.CAN.KTFX.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-200821T0400Z/
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest-
853 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 114, 116, 117, 
AND 118...

The National Weather Service in Great Falls has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.

Thunderstorm activity continues to move east out of the forecast 
area. However, seasonably warm, dry, and breezy conditions through 
this weekend may cause any lightning holdovers to emerge. 


$$

MTZ112-113-115-210400-
/O.CAN.KTFX.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-200821T0400Z/
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
Hill and Blaine Counties-Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
853 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 112, 113, AND 
115...

The National Weather Service in Great Falls has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.

Thunderstorm activity continues to move east out of the forecast 
area. However, seasonably warm, dry, and breezy conditions through 
this weekend may cause any lightning holdovers to emerge. 

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
823 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2020

.UPDATE...

Given latest synoptic-scale and high-resolution CAMS model data,
as well as the amount of lightning activity this afternoon and
evening over southwest Montana, I have decided to extend the Red
Flag Warning for increased thunderstorm activity with gusty and
erratic outflow winds through 10 pm tomorrow evening across all
fire districts. Made updates to PoPs and QPF for tomorrow as well
with the evening update.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Hot and dry weather continues throughout the region. Today, mostly
dry thunderstorms pass through the area, with some storms producing
localized rain showers, as well as gusty and erratic winds.
Tomorrow, more widespread thunderstorms and rain showers are
forecast. The chance is marginal for these storms to produce severe
winds. Friday looks a bit cooler with a hot and mild weekend ahead.

&&

.AVIATION...
532 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2020 (20/00Z TAF Period)

VFR conditions are forecast at all airfields throughout this entire
TAF period, though showers and thunderstorms, some strong, with
strong outflow winds may impact airfields west of KHVR and KLWT and
cause brief reductions to MVFR. All hazards associated with
thunderstorms and virga should be assumed. Looking ahead for
planning, thunderstorms are forecast for tomorrow afternoon and
evening as well. Some of these storms could become severe in terms
of producing erratic high winds.

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

NOTE: Amendments not scheduled for Ennis (KEKS) due to ongoing
runway closure.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Mostly dry thunderstorms move through the region today, with some
storms producing localized wetting rain, as well as gusty and
erratic winds. Fast storm motions coupled with fast storm movement
and very warm and dry conditions preceding the thunderstorms could
allow for these storms to spark new fire starts. The Red Flag
Warning remains in effect for Central MT fire districts to highlight
these hazards. Thursday's forecast includes more widespread
thunderstorm and rain shower activity. Additionally, the chance is
marginal that these storm will produce severe weather in the form of
high winds. The Red Flag Warning has been extended and expanded
until 10 pm Thursday evening for the increased
thunderstorm/lightning activity expected through that time across
all fire districts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 532 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2020/

Today...The Treasure State is located on the leading edge of an
approaching trof and beneath an area of diffluence aloft.
Additionally, moisture is moved into the area, and a perturbation
passing through the flow aloft provide the necessary ingredients
for thunderstorms to build and move across Montana. Gusty and
erratic winds have been reported with these storms. Dry
thunderstorms will be common, today; however, some storms are
producing rain showers. From Great Falls and south, The Storm
Prediction Center (SPC) has included the region in a marginal risk
for severe thunderstorm activity. Due to the dry nature of fuels,
and the potential for lightning strikes in dry conditions, The
Red Flag Warning remains in place. Please, see the warning text
for details.

Thursday...Hot summer weather continues. Thunderstorm activity is
forecast and will be more widespread and more productive in terms
of moisture. Additionally, The SPC has included most of the
region in a severe thunderstorm risk that is marginal. The
forecast severe weather would occur in the form of high winds. The
chance is low to moderate for small hail.
- Fogleman

Friday through Sunday...Behind these two systems, Friday will be
a much quieter day. The upper level ridge will regain control of
the weather for the weekend, which should keep us dry and warm.
Temperatures will generally hover in the upper 80s to low 90s in
the lower elevations, with the only isolated thunderstorms forming
over the mountains.

Monday through next Wednesday...Looking into next week, the
weather will become increasingly unsettled as the area begins to
fall under the influence of an approaching upper level trough.
While it is relatively certain that this trough will affect us,
how it will impact us is far less certain. Both the GFS and ECMWF
models show this system pushing through the area Tuesday into
Wednesday morning, the strength of the system is less certain. The
GFS shows wants to keep this trough rather strong, which would
result in a more widespread event, while the ECMWF wants to weaken
this system substantially as it crosses the Canadian Rockies,
which would result in most places remaining dry as the system
passes. For now, will maintain POPs around the 20-30 percent
range, with the highest POPs over the southern mountains. Behind
this system, temperatures should be noticeably cooler, with highs
next week currently expected to be in the low to mid 80s.

Ludwig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  90  54  87 /  20  50  30   0
CTB  56  86  52  85 /  20  70  10   0
HLN  57  89  53  88 /  40  50  10   0
BZN  54  91  51  88 /  60  50  20   0
WYS  44  84  41  83 /  70  20  10   0
DLN  51  86  48  85 /  70  20   0   0
HVR  61  96  57  89 /   0  40  50   0
LWT  58  89  54  85 /  20  30  50   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT Thursday Central and Eastern
Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas...Helena and Townsend
Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest...Lewis and Clark
National Forest Rocky Mountain District-Rocky Mountain Front...
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Thursday Chouteau and
Fergus Counties...Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern
Pondera/Liberty...Hill and Blaine Counties.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Thursday
Deerlodge/Western Beaverhead National Forest...Eastern
Beaverhead National Forest.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
743 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2020

MTZ055-200200-
Gallatin-
743 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL GALLATIN COUNTY...

At 743 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 10 miles southeast
of Bozeman, moving east at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph, pea size hail, and brief heavy rain are
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bozeman.

This includes Interstate 90 between mile markers 310 and 321.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4566 11110 4572 11080 4560 11080 4559 11083
      4559 11086 4553 11086 4552 11092 4547 11092
      4546 11107
TIME...MOT...LOC 0143Z 258DEG 38KT 4559 11088

SC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
746 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2020

MTZ008-015-200215-
Madison-Beaverhead-
746 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL MADISON AND CENTRAL
BEAVERHEAD COUNTIES...

At 745 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 15 miles northwest
of Dillon, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph, half inch hail, and brief heavy rain are
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Glen.

This includes Interstate 15 between mile markers 71  and 88 .

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 4528 11288 4544 11298 4562 11254 4537 11239
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 246DEG 22KT 4539 11284

SC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
753 PM MDT WED AUG 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 E SHERIDAN            45.46N 112.15W
08/19/2020  E35 MPH          MADISON            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZED HAIL MOSTLY COVERED THE GROUND
            WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. ESTIMATED WINDS
            UP TO 35 MPH.

&&

SAC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
803 PM MDT WED AUG 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0739 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WNW BOZEMAN           45.68N 111.08W
08/19/2020  M54 MPH          GALLATIN           MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION FW1907 BOZEMAN.

1134 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 NW WINDHAM            47.10N 110.17W
08/19/2020  M49 MPH          JUDITH BASIN       MT   AWOS

            AWOS STATION K1CM CHARLIE.

0459 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NE LIMA               44.69N 112.54W
08/19/2020  M46 MPH          BEAVERHEAD         MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION LMRM8 ANTELOPE RAWS.

0740 PM     TSTM WND GST     BELGRADE                45.78N 111.17W
08/19/2020  M45 MPH          GALLATIN           MT   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KBZN BOZEMAN YELLOWSTONE
            AIRPORT.

1123 AM     TSTM WND GST     6 E GEYSER              47.28N 110.37W
08/19/2020  M45 MPH          JUDITH BASIN       MT   AWOS

            AWOS STATION K1BM BRAVO.

0700 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 WSW BIG SKY           45.23N 111.45W
08/19/2020  M43 MPH          MADISON            MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION YCTIM 6.3 W BIG SKY
            (AVALANCHE).

0112 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 NNE FORESTGROVE       47.07N 109.03W
08/19/2020  M43 MPH          FERGUS             MT   AWOS

            AWOS STATION K1NM NOVEMBER.

0110 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E ROY                 47.33N 108.93W
08/19/2020  M43 MPH          FERGUS             MT   AWOS

            AWOS STATION K1OM OSCAR.

1200 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WNW MOCCASIN          47.06N 109.95W
08/19/2020  M43 MPH          JUDITH BASIN       MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MWSM 2.0 W MOCCASIN
            (AGRIMET).

0930 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 ESE PENDROY           48.04N 112.20W
08/19/2020  M43 MPH          TETON              MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION RICMT 4.9 E PENDROY (MCSCN).

1137 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 SSE GEYSER            47.25N 110.48W
08/19/2020  M42 MPH          JUDITH BASIN       MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MTGYS GEYSER (MT DOT).

0135 PM     TSTM WND GST     13 SSE FORESTGROVE      46.83N 108.93W
08/19/2020  M41 MPH          FERGUS             MT   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KMVH N BAR RANCH AWOS.

1234 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 SSE GARNEILL          46.70N 109.73W
08/19/2020  M41 MPH          FERGUS             MT   AWOS

            AWOS STATION K1LM LIMA.

1212 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NE MOORE              47.02N 109.63W
08/19/2020  M41 MPH          FERGUS             MT   AWOS

            AWOS STATION K1MM MIKE.

1057 AM     TSTM WND GST     13 N CHESTER            48.70N 110.98W
08/19/2020  M41 MPH          LIBERTY            MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION DW4776 CHESTER.

0921 AM     TSTM WND GST     8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK  48.36N 113.11W
08/19/2020  M41 MPH          GLACIER            MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION DCRM8 DEEP CREEK RAWS.

0856 AM     TSTM WND GST     13 S MARYSVILLE         46.56N 112.31W
08/19/2020  M41 MPH          LEWIS AND CLARK    MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MTMDP MACDONALD PASS (MT
            DOT).

1032 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 SW CUT BANK           48.60N 112.37W
08/19/2020  M40 MPH          GLACIER            MT   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KCTB CUT BANK AIRPORT.

&&

UPDATED LIST OF 40+ MPH WIND GUSTS FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA TODAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
817 PM MDT WED AUG 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 E GALLATIN GATEWAY    45.58N 111.10W
08/19/2020  M0.54 INCH       GALLATIN           MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            0.54 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN ABOUT THE LAST
            20 MINUTES.

&&

SAC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
821 PM MDT WED AUG 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 E GALLATIN GATEWAY    45.58N 111.10W
08/19/2020  M0.54 INCH       GALLATIN           MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN REPORT FROM 5 E
            GALLATIN GATEWAY. 0.54 INCHES OF RAIN FELL
            IN ABOUT THE LAST 20 MINUTES. MIINOR STREET
            FLOODING.

&&

SAC