Red Flag Warning 8, NWS Great Falls, MT

351 
WWUS85 KTFX 182101
RFWTFX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
301 PM MDT Tue Aug 18 2020

MTZ114-116>118-191200-
/O.EXT.KTFX.FW.W.0008.200819T0000Z-200820T0300Z/
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest-
301 PM MDT Tue Aug 18 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM
MDT WEDNESDAY FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 114, 116, 117, AND 118...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zones 114, 116, 117 and 118.

* TIMING...6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Wednesday.

* WINDS...Southwest 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...85 to 95.

* LIGHTNING...Isolated, mainly dry thunderstorms are expected late
  this afternoon and evening with additional rounds of widely
  scattered thunderstorms moving across the region late tonight
  through Wednesday. 

* IMPACTS...Fires can ignite quickly and easily and spread rapidly
  under these conditions with the increase in lightning preceded
  by very warm and dry conditions.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusty and erratic outflow winds up to 40 mph 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

MTZ112-190200-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-200819T0200Z/
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
301 PM MDT Tue Aug 18 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 112.

* TIMING...Through early Tuesday evening with winds diminishing 
  after 2000. 

* WINDS...West 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...In the upper 80s.

* THUNDERSTORMS...Isolated thunderstorms, some dry, may produce 
  new fire starts Tuesday evening into the overnight. Gusty and 
  erratic outflow winds are possible with any storms.

* IMPACTS...Fires can ignite quickly and easily and spread 
  rapidly under these dry and breezy conditions.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

814 
WWUS85 KTFX 190135
RFWTFX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
735 PM MDT Tue Aug 18 2020

MTZ112-190245-
/O.CAN.KTFX.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-200819T0200Z/
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
735 PM MDT Tue Aug 18 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112...

The National Weather Service in Great Falls has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning. Widespread critical fire weather conditions are no 
longer occurring across the warned area. 

$$

MTZ114-116>118-191645-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-200820T0300Z/
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest-
735 PM MDT Tue Aug 18 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION AND
GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 114, 116,
117, AND 118...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zones 114, 116, 117 and 118.

* TIMING...6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Wednesday.

* WINDS...Southwest 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...In the lower 70s.

* LIGHTNING...Isolated, mainly dry thunderstorms are expected 
  late this afternoon and evening with additional rounds of 
  widely scattered thunderstorms moving across the region late 
  tonight through Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Fires can ignite quickly and easily and spread 
  rapidly under these conditions with the increase in lightning 
  preceded by very warm and dry conditions.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusty and erratic outflow winds up to 40 mph 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

540 
WWUS85 KTFX 191004
RFWTFX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
404 AM MDT Wed Aug 19 2020

MTZ114-116>118-200300-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-200820T0300Z/
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest-
404 AM MDT Wed Aug 19 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 114,
116, 117, AND 118...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zones 114, 116, 117 and 118.

* TIMING...Through 9 PM MDT this evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 5 to 10 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...In the lower 70s.

* LIGHTNING...Widely scattered thunderstorms and isolated dry
  thunderstorms continue through this evening.

* IMPACTS...Fires can ignite quickly and easily and spread 
  rapidly under these conditions with the increase in lightning 
  preceded by very warm and dry conditions.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusty and erratic outflow winds up to 40 mph 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

366 
WWUS85 KTFX 200223
RFWTFX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
823 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2020

MTZ112-113-115-201730-
/O.NEW.KTFX.FW.W.0009.200820T1800Z-200821T0400Z/
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
Hill and Blaine Counties-Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
823 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 112, 113, AND 115...

The National Weather Service in Great Falls has issued a Red Flag
Warning for increasing thunderstorm activity with gusty and erratic
outflow winds, which is in effect from noon to 10 PM MDT Thursday.

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zones 112, 113 and 115.

* LIGHTNING...Widely scattered thunderstorms and isolated dry
  thunderstorms expected Thursday afternoon through mid-evening.

* IMPACTS...Fires can ignite quickly and easily and spread 
  rapidly under these conditions with the increase in lightning 
  preceded by very warm and dry conditions.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusty and erratic outflow winds up to 50 mph 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of 
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

MTZ114-116>118-201730-
/O.EXT.KTFX.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-200821T0400Z/
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest-
823 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 114, 116, 117, AND 118...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zones 114, 116, 117 and 118.

* TIMING...Through 10 PM MDT Thursday evening.

* LIGHTNING...Widely scattered thunderstorms and isolated dry
  thunderstorms continue through Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...Fires can ignite quickly and easily and spread 
  rapidly under these conditions with the increase in lightning 
  preceded by very warm and dry conditions.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusty and erratic outflow winds up to 50 mph 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

788 
WWUS85 KTFX 200951
RFWTFX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
351 AM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020

MTZ114-116>118-210400-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-200821T0400Z/
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest-
351 AM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 114, 116, 117, AND 118...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zones 114, 116, 117 and 118.

* TIMING...Through 10 PM MDT this evening.

* LIGHTNING...A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms.

* IMPACTS...Fires can ignite quickly and easily and spread 
  rapidly under these conditions with the increase in lightning 
  preceded by very warm and dry conditions.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusty and erratic outflow winds up to 50 mph 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

MTZ112-113-115-210400-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0009.200820T1800Z-200821T0400Z/
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
Hill and Blaine Counties-Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
351 AM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM MDT
THIS EVENING FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 112, 113, AND 115...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zones 112, 113 and 115.

* TIMING...Through 10 PM MDT this evening.

* LIGHTNING...A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms.

* IMPACTS...Fires can ignite quickly and easily and spread 
  rapidly under these conditions with the increase in lightning 
  preceded by very warm and dry conditions.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusty and erratic outflow winds up to 50 mph 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

609 
WWUS85 KTFX 210253
RFWTFX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
853 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020

MTZ114-116>118-210400-
/O.CAN.KTFX.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-200821T0400Z/
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest-
853 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 114, 116, 117, 
AND 118...

The National Weather Service in Great Falls has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.

Thunderstorm activity continues to move east out of the forecast 
area. However, seasonably warm, dry, and breezy conditions through 
this weekend may cause any lightning holdovers to emerge. 


$$

MTZ112-113-115-210400-
/O.CAN.KTFX.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-200821T0400Z/
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
Hill and Blaine Counties-Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
853 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 112, 113, AND 
115...

The National Weather Service in Great Falls has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.

Thunderstorm activity continues to move east out of the forecast 
area. However, seasonably warm, dry, and breezy conditions through 
this weekend may cause any lightning holdovers to emerge. 

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1200 AM MDT Tue Aug 18 2020

...Updated aviation section...

.UPDATE...

Main update this evening was to cancel the Heat Advisory for
central and southern Lewis and Clark County (temperatures have
mostly cooled to below 90 degrees) and cancel this evening's Red
Flag Warning for north central and central Montana (winds have
decreased and RHs have started to increase). Otherwise, have
backed off on mention of showers/thunderstorms overnight, as
nothing has developed yet. However, a disturbance along the
Oregon/Idaho border may bring a few showers/thunderstorms to the
area later tonight into Tuesday morning, but confidence in this is
somewhat low.  Coulston

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure aloft will continue to bring very hot conditions to
the forecast area this afternoon with most locations seeing high
temperatures of 95 to around 100 degrees. Isolated to possibly
scattered thunderstorms are expected today and Tuesday into Tuesday
night but only minor rain amounts of a trace to a few hundreths of
an inch are anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION...
1200 AM MDT Tue Aug 18 2020 (18/06Z TAF Period)

Mainly VFR conditions will continue over the TAF period. Upper level
clouds will continue to push into the area overnight, but should not
cause significant impacts. A few -SHRA are pushing into Western MT
this evening, but they are unlikely to affect any terminals that we
issue TAFs for. Tomorrow will generally continue the VFR conditions,
though a few TSRA will be possible, especially over the southern
mountains. Any TSRA will have the potential to bring strong
downdrafts and gusty outflow winds. PROB30 groups remain in the TAFs
for KBZN, KEKS, KWYS, and KHLN for these TSRA. Other consideration
for the TAF period continues to be periods of reduced visibility due
to smoke from fires, with area of greatest concern remaining near
KDLN near the Bear Creek fire.  Ludwig

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

NOTE: Amendments not scheduled for Ennis (KEKS) due to ongoing
runway closure.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Highly elevated to critical fire weather conditions will continue
through mid- to late week. Tuesday, winds again approach marginal
critical fire weather criteria as a disturbance moves across the
strong upper-level ridge, with Fire Weather Zone 112 possibly seeing
gusts approaching 30 mph or more. Confidence is still rather low as
to whether critical thresholds will be met on a widespread level
across the zone, and for that reason the Fire Weather Watch for FWZ
112 has been continued one more period.

Monsoon moisture aloft begins to move over the region later Tuesday
through Wednesday and possibly Thursday as well. This initial wave
of moisture will be accompanied with enough instability to produce
isolated to scattered thunderstorms, which will favor being on the
dry side given very dry air in the lowest several thousand feet of
the atmosphere. Activity will increase by Tuesday evening and
continue possibly into Wednesday, before thunderstorms likely trend
a bit wetter. Given the potential for LALs of 3 with storms favoring
being more on the dry side than wet, we have issued a Fire Weather
Watch from early Tuesday evening through late Tuesday night for dry
thunderstorms with gusty and erratic outflow winds. Numerous new
fire starts that will have the potential for rapid spread are the
main concerns. Existing fires will also have the potential for rapid
spread should any of the outflows impact the fire areas.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record high temperatures will be in danger of being broken today and
Tuesday as values rise into the 90s to near 100 degrees or slightly
higher. Today will have the best chance of seeing record highs with
current record values at most locations in the mid- to upper 90s.

Here is a list of the current record highs for Monday/Tuesday for
select climate sites:

Cut Bank (93/95), Havre (99/105), Great Falls (98/101), Lewistown
(98/97), Helena (98/100), Bozeman (96/98), and Dillon (95/94).

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 605 PM MDT Mon Aug 17 2020/

Rest of this Afternoon through Tuesday Night...

A strong upper level ridge will remain over the region today and
Tuesday with hot temperatures continuing. Monsoon moisture aloft
will continue to move northward along the western boundary of the
upper ridge and will bring an increasing chance for light showers
and mainly dry thunderstorms. With temperatures expected to top out
at 95 to 105 today, have issued a Heat Advisory for North Central
Montana through Tuesday evening. The Helena area has also been
included in a Heat Advisory for today but conditions should be
slightly cooler on Tuesday so this advisory will end this evening.

A series of disturbances begins to move across the area with
sufficient moisture and instability to support high-based, mainly
dry thunderstorms. The greatest coverage of thunderstorms appears to
be in the mountainous regions of central and southwest Montana, but
isolated thunderstorm activity will be possible over the plains as
well. Please see the Fire Weather section for impacts related to
wildfires from this activity.

Wednesday through next Monday...

Shortwave energy will continue to rotate around the high pressure
system as it is flattened by troughing over the eastern Pacific.
This will increase thunderstorm activity for Wednesday and
Thursday, mostly for Southwest Montana. Still expecting a slight
increase in west to northwest breezes but confidence in widespread
elevated winds has decreased. Regardless, conditions for fire
weather will continue to be monitored. Slightly cooler
temperatures can be expected as a result of passing shortwaves and
a the flattening of the high pressure system, with highs falling
back to the upper 80s to middle 90s for Wednesday and a few
degrees lower for Thursday. The ridge looks to build back for the
weekend, likely keeping conditions dry. However, the ridge may be
displaced to the east by Pacific Northwest troughing. This could
create a more southwesterly flow aloft for our region and keep
lower elevation temperatures mostly in the upper 80s to lower 90s,
with a continued chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
- RCG/Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  62  94  62  90 /   0  20  20  30
CTB  60  93  59  89 /   0  20  20  10
HLN  62  94  61  90 /  10  30  30  50
BZN  58  94  57  90 /  10  20  20  50
WYS  42  88  47  85 /  20  20  20  60
DLN  55  88  54  86 /  10  30  20  60
HVR  62  99  63  96 /   0  20  20  10
LWT  61  91  61  88 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday evening through late Tuesday
night Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest
Areas...Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena
National Forest...Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain
District-Rocky Mountain Front...Lincoln Ranger District of the
Helena National Forest.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Tuesday Blaine...Cascade...
Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Toole.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening Deerlodge/Western Beaverhead National Forest...Eastern
Beaverhead National Forest.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday Gallatin National
Forest.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls