Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Great Falls, MT

337 
WWUS85 KTFX 250249
RFWTFX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
849 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2020

MTZ112-250400-
/O.EXP.KTFX.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200725T0300Z/
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
849 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112...

Humidity have begun to moderate with the loss of daytime heating.
Humidity values will continue to moderate into the overnight hours
tonight. 

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
852 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2020

.UPDATE...

Main update was to decrease shower/thunderstorm coverage across
the forecast area this evening as the airmass becomes less
unstable. A few lingering showers over the northeast part of the
area (including the Havre area) will continue to move northeast
out of the area. Scattered thunderstorms over Southwest Montana
will also decrease over the next few hours. However, short-range,
high-resolution models indicate that a disturbance may move
northeast from Jefferson County through the Lewistown area from
after midnight through Friday morning. Have therefore added a
mention of isolated showers to those areas. Otherwise, clearing
skies overnight should allow patchy fog to form in the southwest
valleys, especially where precipitation occurred today.
Coulston

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will decrease overnight across
the region. A few more showers and thunderstorms may then move
over Southwest Montana during the afternoon and evening hours of
Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will also remain near to a bit
cooler than normal through Sunday, but a return to hot
temperatures is expected across the entire region next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 525 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2020 (24/00Z TAF Period)

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to
move from west to east across Southwest and into portions of
North Central Montana early this evening. Some storms, mainly
over eastern portions of Central and North Central Montana, could
be severe and produce damaging wind gusts early this evening in
and near the KLWT terminal. Otherwise, expect periods of MVFR/IFR
conditions in areas of heavy precipitation, with variable and
gusty winds. Precipitation is generally expected to clear all
terminals between 03-06z Friday. Mountain obscuration is likely
into the early morning hours on Friday. - Moldan

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

NOTE: Amendments not scheduled for Ennis (KEKS) due to ongoing
runway closure.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the Cut Bank area for
Friday afternoon/evening. Low humidity and gusty west winds could
create critical fire weather conditions in this region. Any
rainfall today could help reduce the potential for critical fire
weather conditions on Friday, and this will continue to be
evaluated throughout the day today and tonight should rainfall
develop in this region. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 525 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2020/

Rest of this Afternoon through Friday...

Numerous to widespread thunderstorm activity has already
developed given moderate instability and plentiful moisture
across southwest Montana. This activity will quickly move north
and east through central and north-central Montana through early
to mid- evening before largely exiting the area. The upper level
disturbance moving through the region this afternoon is fairly
strong, so widespread wetting rains are expected across much of
southwest and central Montana. Lightning activity will also be
substantial. The Marginal Risk for severe storms was upgraded
once again to a Slight Risk over Central/Southwest MT for this
afternoon into early evening, with large hail and damaging winds
the severe threats. On Friday, the chances for storms will mainly
affect Southwest and portions of Central MT, while warm, dry, and
windy conditions developing across the Hi- Line, especially
immediately downwind of the Front Range.

Saturday through Sunday...

With an upper level trof residing over the region this weekend,
afternoon temperatures will not be quite as hot as they have been.
Additionally, the chances for showers/thunderstorms will be quite
low this weekend, with the most likely area of any storms to
occur being over Southwest MT.

Monday through Thursday...

With an upper level ridge of high pressure building over the
region, very warm/hot temperatures are forecast to move back into
the region for much of next week. There is a chance afternoon
highs could be a few degrees warmer than currently forecast,
especially if skies remain mostly clear during the day. Upper
level disturbances will move through the region starting on
Tuesday and then continuing through the rest of the week. Thus
some thunderstorms are possible each day, which could result in
temperatures being a touch cooler on some days. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  84  54  79 /  10  10  20  10
CTB  52  80  47  75 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  54  85  53  80 /  10  20  30  20
BZN  51  85  51  80 /  50  40  40  40
WYS  42  78  42  77 /  60  30  30  50
DLN  50  81  49  79 /  40  40  20  30
HVR  59  89  54  79 /  30  10  20  10
LWT  54  84  52  75 /  30  40  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1036 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     TSTM WND GST     12 E BOZEMAN            45.67N 110.80W
07/23/2020  M61 MPH          GALLATIN           MT   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            61 MPH WIND GUST ON BOZEMAN PASS.

&&

BRUSDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1038 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 WSW GRANT             44.97N 113.22W
07/23/2020  M60 MPH          BEAVERHEAD         MT   MESONET

            60 MPH WIND GUST AT BRENNER RAWS. TIME OF
            EVENT IS ESTIMATED.

&&

BRUSDA