Red Flag Warning 11, NWS Great Falls, MT

557 
WWUS85 KTFX 290853
RFWTFX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
253 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

MTZ112>118-300000-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0011.200829T1800Z-200830T0600Z/
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
Hill and Blaine Counties-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest-
253 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS, FOLLOWED BY
A WIND SHIFT FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 112, 113, 114, 115, 116, 117, 
AND 118...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zones 112, 113, 114, 115, 116, 117 
  and 118.

* TIMING...Gusty winds and low humidity this afternoon. A wind
  shift to the north this evening.

* WINDS...West 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph in the
  afternoon. Winds shifting from the west to the north this
  evening.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 11 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any new or existing fires could be very difficult to
  contain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

331 
WWUS85 KTFX 292359
RFWTFX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
559 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

MTZ112>118-300600-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-200830T0600Z/
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
Hill and Blaine Counties-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest-
559 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS, FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 112, 113, 114, 115, 116, 117, AND 118...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zones 112, 113, 114, 115, 116, 117 
  and 118.

* TIMING...Gusty winds and low humidity this afternoon. A wind 
  shift to the north this evening.

* WINDS...West winds at 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph will
  shift to the Northwest and north 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 
  mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 11 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any new or existing fires could be very difficult to 
  contain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

264 
WWUS85 KTFX 300019
RFWTFX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
619 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

MTZ112-300130-
/O.CAN.KTFX.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-200830T0600Z/
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
619 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE 
HUMIDITY FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT, FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112...

The National Weather Service in Great Falls has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.

The cold front has passed and relative humidity values have risen
above critical levels. Therefore, the Red Flag Warning has been
Canceled.

$$

MTZ113>118-300600-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-200830T0600Z/
Hill and Blaine Counties-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest-
619 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, FOLLOWED BY A WIND 
SHIFT, FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 113, 114, 115, 116, 117, AND 118...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zones 113, 114, 115, 116, 117 and 
  118.

* TIMING...West winds will shift to the northwest and eventually
  north this evening. Relative humidity values will rise above 30 
  percent once the front passes.

* WINDS...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph will
  shift Northwest to north at 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 
  mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 11 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any new or existing fires could be very difficult to 
  contain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

650 
WWUS85 KTFX 300327
RFWTFX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
927 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

MTZ113>115-300430-
/O.CAN.KTFX.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-200830T0600Z/
Hill and Blaine Counties-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
927 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR WIND SHIFT WITH A COLD FRONT
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 113, 114, AND 115...

The National Weather Service in Great Falls has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.

The cold front has moved south of the region. Winds have shifted to
the north and humidity is increasing.

$$

MTZ116>118-300600-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-200830T0600Z/
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest-
927 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
FOR WIND SHIFT WITH A COLD FRONT FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 116, 117,
AND 118...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zones 116, 117 and 118.

* TIMING...West winds will shift to the northwest and eventually 
  north this evening. Relative humidity values will rise above 30 
  percent once the front passes.

* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent ahead of the cold front.

* IMPACTS...Any new or existing fires could be very difficult to 
  contain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

428 
WWUS85 KTFX 300545
RFWTFX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1145 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

MTZ116>118-300645-
/O.EXP.KTFX.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-200830T0600Z/
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest-
1145 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WIND
SHIFT WITH A COLD FRONT FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 116, 117, AND 118...

The cold front continues to move south through the region. Winds 
are shifting to the north and humidity is increasing.

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1145 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020

Updated Aviation Section.

.UPDATE...
Forecast remains on track for warm and dry conditions to continue
through the weekend, with some elevated fire weather concerns
through the forecast period. With minor increases to the winds
along the High-Line Saturday afternoon and evening, the Fire
Weather Watches are likely to be upgraded to Red Flag Warnings
with the afternoon forecast. -TP

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Expect a warming trend to continue today and tomorrow, but
westerly winds will increase and become gusty on Saturday. Very
dry conditions are also expected on Saturday, leading to likely
fire weather concerns. A potent cold front will then bring wetter
and much cooler conditions for Sunday into Monday before a return
toward normal for the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
1140 AM MDT Thu Aug 28 2020 (28/18Z TAF Period)

VFR conditions will persist across the region, as dry and sunny
conditions stick around through the TAF period. Winds should remain
light over the southwest terminals through the period, with the
North-central terminals becoming breezy this afternoon/evening and
then strengthening again late tomorrow morning, especially along the
High-Line.  -TP

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

NOTE: Amendments not scheduled for Ennis (KEKS) do to ongoing
runway closure.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for all NWS Great Falls Fire
Weather Zones from Noon to Midnight Saturday.

Westerly winds increase across much of the area on Saturday ahead
of an approaching cold front. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph,
with gusts up to around 35 mph, are expected Saturday afternoon,
with relative humidity dropping into the teens for most locations.
Any new or existing fires could be difficult to contain under such
conditions. The front is forecast to push into the Hi- Line
counties by Saturday evening, with a shift to gusty NW-N'ly winds
behind it. This wind shift and gusty winds behind it could cause
issues for firefighting efforts with sudden changes in fire
behavior and spread before dropping temps and increasing humidity
help. Cooler and wetter conditions are expected behind the front
Saturday night through Monday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020/

Today through next Monday...

Shortwave ridging builds today, leaving clear and dry conditions
across the region. Temperatures will be somewhat warmer today
under the ridging, especially for parts of central and SW MT.
Expect highs to trend even warmer for Saturday, despite the ridge
starting to slide off to the east. This will be due to westerly
downslope winds increasing on Saturday due to a lee side trough
developing ahead of an amplifying system moving into the Pacific
Northwest. Dry and windy conditions on Saturday are forecast to
cause critical fire weather concerns, and a Fire Weather Watch has
been issued for noon to midnight on Saturday for all Fire Weather
Zones, matching up with MSO's Watch for their zones in SW MT. A
strong cold front will arrive Saturday night, followed by much
cooler temperatures Sunday into Monday. Highs those days are
likely in the 60s, anywhere from 10 to 20 degrees below normal,
which still run mid-70s to mid-80s. Ensembles continue to
indicate decent agreement of some widespread light to moderate
rain along and east of the Continental Divide Sunday with the main
front and upper trough, and perhaps also Monday as a shortwave
passes through. Cooler temperatures could also support the
season's first bit of accumulating snow for the higher mountain
areas, currently looking like above about 7000 feet, but that
could change. -Kredensor

Tuesday through next Friday...
Seasonably mild temperatures return into next week with a broad
anticyclonic flow rebuilding over the southwest U.S, with highs
forecast in the 70s to low 80s. This places our region into a
northwest flow, which will maintain a series of weak disturbances,
breezy conditions, and low chances for precipitation.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  82  50  87  45 /   0   0   0  30
CTB  81  47  82  41 /   0   0   0  60
HLN  83  49  86  45 /   0   0   0  30
BZN  82  47  86  46 /   0   0   0  20
WYS  78  37  78  36 /  10  10   0  20
DLN  78  46  80  44 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  83  50  90  46 /   0   0   0  30
LWT  78  50  87  42 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest
Areas...Chouteau and Fergus Counties...Deerlodge/Western
Beaverhead National Forest...Eastern Beaverhead National
Forest...Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty...
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National
Forest...Hill and Blaine Counties...Lewis and Clark National
Forest Rocky Mountain District-Rocky Mountain Front...Lincoln
Ranger District of the Helena National Forest.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls