Special Weather Statement, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
228 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure to the east and the west of the Florida peninsula
coupled with very light and zonal synoptic flow is leading to an
almost calm atmosphere from the surface on up to the tropopause.
This has led to the continuation of a purely mesoscale-driven
atmosphere where showers and thunderstorms initiate along the sea
breeze, remain almost stationary, and then collapse. As they do so,
outflow boundaries can then propagate out and away from storms in
any direction, leading to potential new areas of development if two
or more of these boundaries happen to collide. This is what was seen
last night, and led to some late evening thunderstorms for coastal
locations. A similar setup could take place again later today.

As mentioned in the discussion this morning, a setup like this does
not favor severe weather, nor does it favor long-lived
thunderstorms. What is favored is periods of heavy rain for those
lucky enough to see a storm pass overhead. For everyone else, things
remain hot and dry, with heat indices into the triple digits.

Is there any relief in sight? Not really. The next couple days
should be almost identical today. By mid-week, the shifting of high
pressure will usher in a more predominant easterly flow that will
last through the weekend. Easterly flow will provide a slightly
better chance for coastal areas to see some much-needed rain, which
is a good thing. Easterly flow restricts the eastward propagation of
the sea breeze, providing an enhanced region of convergence near the
coast late in the afternoon when the other sea breeze arrives.
However, one may hardly notice much difference beyond that for the
coming week. Overall, pretty typical summertime weather is expected
for the next seven days.

&&

.AVIATION...
Convection is beginning to initiate along sea breeze boundaries near
coastal terminals. Temporary reductions to MVFR/IFR conditions,
along with gusty and variable winds are possible and being handled
with TEMPOs as convection develops. Thunderstorms remain a concern
for terminals into the evening hours. Conditions should quiet later
tonight, with near calm winds prevailing until tomorrow afternoon
when the seabreeze gets going again and thunderstorms once more
develop.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally benign boating conditions with winds and seas remaining
fairly light. The primary hazard for mariners continues to be
thunderstorms. A few coastal showers are possible in the early
morning before storms really begin to develop inland during the day.
Mariners should watch for storms that may develop and drift towards
the coast, creating locally hazardous winds and seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Ample instability and moisture will continue to promote the
development of scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.
Otherwise, fire weather concerns remain low through the forecast
period.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  78  93  78  93 /  30  40  20  50
FMY  76  94  77  93 /  20  50  20  60
GIF  76  94  76  93 /  20  50  20  60
SRQ  77  93  78  93 /  30  40  10  50
BKV  74  94  75  93 /  20  40  10  60
SPG  78  94  79  93 /  30  30  20  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

Flannery

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
344 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SE SOUTHWEST INTERNAT 26.53N 81.75W
08/09/2020  M46 MPH          LEE                FL   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KRSW FORT MYERS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
356 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NNE PAGE PARK-PINE MA 26.58N 81.87W
08/09/2020  M51 MPH          LEE                FL   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KFMY FORT MYERS.

&&

TBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
403 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SE CAPE CORAL         26.54N 81.95W
08/09/2020  M44 MPH          LEE                FL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 0492W 3.0 SE CAPE CORAL
            (WEATHERSTEM).

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
408 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SW CAPE CORAL         26.55N 82.01W
08/09/2020  M41 MPH          LEE                FL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION CW3609 CAPE CORAL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
409 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0349 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SSW CAPE CORAL        26.54N 82.00W
08/09/2020  M44 MPH          LEE                FL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION XTRP TARPON PT.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
412 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

FLZ043-052-151-248-249-251-092115-
Inland Hernando FL-Inland Pasco FL-Coastal Hillsborough FL-Sumter FL-
Polk FL-Inland Hillsborough FL-
412 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SUMTER...PASCO...
SOUTHEASTERN HERNANDO...HILLSBOROUGH AND WESTERN POLK COUNTIES UNTIL
515 PM EDT...

At 411 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pebble Creek, or 8 miles northeast of Temple Terrace. This storm was
nearly stationary.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tampa, Lakeland, Plant City, Temple Terrace, Bartow, Auburndale,
Zephyrhills, Dade City, Fish Hawk, Lutz, Brandon, St. Leo,
Hillsborough River State Park, Zephyrhills South, Palm River-Clair
Mel, East Lake-Orient Park, Zephyrhills West, Land O Lakes, Egypt
Lake-Leto and Medulla.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2851 8245 2853 8196 2835 8196 2835 8186
      2836 8185 2836 8179 2834 8178 2777 8180
      2778 8251 2779 8251 2785 8255
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 007DEG 2KT 2815 8230

TBW