Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
746 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

.UPDATE...

...MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
A line of storms associated with an advancing cold front are just
arriving in offshore waters and northern Levy County. Environmental
conditions ahead of the line remain favorable for storms to
maintain current strength and even possibly intensify.ML CAPE
values are on the order of 3000J/KG. As little as a few hundred
J/KG is sufficient, so there is plenty of instability for storms
to work with. Both shear and helicity are of lower magnitudes, but
sufficient. Bulk shear values are between 50 to 60kts, which are
enough to sustain storms. Helicity values are running in the
200-250 range, which is strong enough to support organized storms
and a brief tornado cannot but completely ruled out.

A severe thunderstorm watch is now in effect given the environment
that is reasonably favorable for damaging winds. Favorable
conditions will continue to exist for the next few hours, but upper-
level energy is expected to move away from our area later today,
reducing the threat as the line pushes southward. There will still
be enough support for the sustainment of storms, though, so we'll
continue to monitor storms as they make their way southward.

&&

.AVIATION...
A line of storms will be approaching all terminals later today, but
before they do, a strong gradient will lead to gusty conditions from
the SW at TAF sites. While still a little too uncertain to mention
in TAFs, brief periods of MVFR are also possible as storms pass
airports, and some lingering MVFR conditions are still likely for
the next couple hours before heating begins to lift ceilings.

&&

.MARINE...
Hazardous boating conditions will exist through the morning and into
the afternoon hours as a line of storms moves through coastal
waters. These will be capable of producing strong winds, and
frequent lightning. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for
portions of coastal waters. Ahead of the line, strong winds will
lead to rough seas. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for northern
and central offshore waters along with Tampa Bay.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  84  67  85  66 /  70  20   0   0
FMY  88  72  88  66 /  30  50  20   0
GIF  87  65  88  62 /  70  20   0   0
SRQ  86  69  85  66 /  60  40   0   0
BKV  84  63  85  60 /  80  10   0   0
SPG  85  68  85  67 /  70  30   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-
     Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland
     Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland
     Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out
     20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon
     Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...97/Flannery
UPPER AIR...24/Hubbard
DECISION SUPPORT...27/Shiveley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
522 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-202130-
Sumter-Pinellas-Polk-Hardee-Highlands-DeSoto-Coastal Levy-
Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Pasco-
Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-
Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Citrus-
Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Manatee-
Inland Sarasota-Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Tampa Bay waters-
Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-
Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
522 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A cold front will bring a line of thunderstorms through the region
today and tonight. These storms will be capable of producing gusty
winds...locally heavy rains...and deadly lightning strikes.
Additionally...some storms could be severe and the region is under
a marginal risk for severe weather.

...COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT...
Minor coastal flooding will be possible today...mainly for Levy
and Citrus Counties. The greatest threat will be during the high
tide cycle between 11 am and 2 pm.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
High surf will produce rip currents along area beaches.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
Southwest winds of around 20 knots will lead to hazardous boating
conditions. Winds are forecast to subside tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

Carlisle

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
1140 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

FLZ050-151-251-201630-
Coastal Hillsborough FL-Pinellas FL-Inland Hillsborough FL-
1140 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PINELLAS AND NORTHWESTERN
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM EDT...

At 1140 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles west of Harbor Bluffs to 9 miles west
of Ridgecrest. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Tampa, Clearwater, Largo, Pinellas Park, Temple Terrace, Seminole,
Brandon, Lutz, Fish Hawk, St. Petersburg, Palm Harbor, South
Highpoint, Palm River-Clair Mel, Tampa International Airport, East
Lake-Orient Park, Egypt Lake-Leto, Greater Carrollwood, Riverview,
University and Ridgecrest.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 PM EDT for
west central Florida.

LAT...LON 2809 8289 2811 8230 2783 8226 2782 8290
      2786 8291 2787 8291
TIME...MOT...LOC 1540Z 263DEG 38KT 2790 8296 2786 8296

TBW

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