River Flood Warning 23, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
241 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

...THE THREAT FOR IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM ETA CONTINUE...

.DISCUSSION...
Tropical Storm Eta continues to track NNE around 10 mph through the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. The latest position has the storm
approximately 110 NM southwest of the mouth of Tampa bay. Some drier
air has wrapped around Eta on the west side, but rain bands on the
east side of the storm continue to stream over the west coast of
Florida producing some heavy rainfall in some areas. Tropical Storm
force winds in the 40-70 mph range have been reported in surface
observations at many locations and will continue through the morning
hours on Thursday. The latest advisory has Eta making landfall near
Crystal River around 7 AM on Thursday morning as a strong Tropical
Storm. Eta then continues to move rapidly to the northeast over
northern Florida and then into the western Atlantic by early Friday
morning. For additional information on this storm see the latest
advisories being issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

The good news is that high pressure builds in behind Eta starting
Friday bringing clearing conditions to the area for the weekend.
Temperatures will be on the cooler side today through Friday with
extensive cloudiness and rainfall, but will warm up to above average
on Saturday and Sunday. A cold front will push through the area on
Monday, but will be mostly dry as it moves through. A nice cool down
can be expected in the wake of this front starting Tuesday next week
bringing daytime highs into the 70's and overnight lows in the 50's
and 60's.

&&

.AVIATION...
Tropical Storm Eta continues to move north along the west coast of
Florida. Showers will continue to stream in from the south through
the day so will hold SHRA at all terminals. Some periods of MVFR/IFR
for low CIGs and VSBY will be possible through the period. Thunder
has been very sparse, so will hold off on mention of TSRA for now.
SE winds around 15-25 knots with gusts around 30-40 knots continue
through 06Z and will then start to gradually decrease and veer to
the southwest through Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Extremely hazardous marine conditions expected through the end of
the week as Tropical Storm Eta moves northward through the eastern
Gulf of Mexico off the west coast of Florida. Tropical Storm force
winds will be possible throughout the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Seas
just west of the mouth of Tampa Bay are already in excess of 11 feet
and will continue to further build over the next 12 hours with seas
building to 15-20 feet later this evening. All mariners should plan
to stay off the waters through the end of the week and continue to
monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Eta during the coming days.
For additional information on this storm see the latest advisories
being issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tropical Storm Eta continues to move through the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. Scattered showers and high RH values will preclude any red
flag conditions. Robust southeast winds during the next few days
will result in high dispersions for some locations.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  77  82  75  84 / 100  70  40  20
FMY  75  83  73  85 /  80  60  30  30
GIF  75  82  74  85 / 100  80  40  30
SRQ  77  83  75  84 / 100  60  30  20
BKV  74  82  72  84 / 100  80  50  30
SPG  76  81  75  83 / 100  60  40  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Hurricane Watch for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-
     Pinellas.

     High Surf Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal
     Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-
     Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-
     Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-
     Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland
     Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-
     Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

     Storm Surge Warning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal
     Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-
     Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-
     Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal
     Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-Inland
     Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-
     Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-
     Sumter.

Gulf waters...Hurricane Watch for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon
     Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island
     Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee
     River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood
     to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT...25/Davis

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
449 PM EST WED NOV 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 PM     TROPICAL STORM   1 S WHITFIELD           27.40N 82.57W
11/11/2020                   MANATEE            FL   ASOS

            52 MPH WIND GUST AT ASOS STATION KSRQ
            SARASOTA BRADENT.

&&

JCM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
516 PM EST WED NOV 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     TROPICAL STORM   4 NNW BELLEAIR          27.99N 82.83W
11/11/2020                   PINELLAS           FL   MESONET

            60 MPH WIND GUST AT MESONET STATION FW1789
            CLEARWATER BEACH.

&&

JCM

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