River Flood Warning 14, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
934 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020

.UPDATE...
This morning's 12Z sounding here at TBW measured PWAT of 2.16
inches, indicating a juicy atmosphere resides over the
Peninsula... Current radar shows isolated light showers mainly
along and north of the I-4 corridor with more widespread showers
and embedded thunderstorms 40-60 miles west in the Gulf. Later in
the day, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected as diurnal heating and sea breeze collisions occur across
the interior. Only minor tweaks made to near-term PoPs to reflect
ongoing trends. Went ahead and also nudged up post-frontal marine
winds and wave heights on Wednesday based on latest guidance
which reflects a tight pressure gradient - likely to produce
breezy northerly winds. This will be included in the late AM
coastals.

&&

.MARINE...
Calm winds and seas are expected today, although showers and
isolated thunderstorms will continue to move across the eastern
Gulf which will be capable of producing gusty winds and locally
high seas... Breezy southwest winds are expected tomorrow out
ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will move through
the waters late Tuesday night through early Wednesday morning.
Behind the front, stiff northerly winds will prevail with
headlines likely and advisory conditions possible. Winds will
shift out of the northeast but remain elevated through the week as
another reinforcing frontal boundary is forecast to move through
the area Friday.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 728 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020/

AVIATION...
Prevailing VFR with brief periods of light rain mainly from SRQ
northward through the remainder of the morning hours. This will
transition to VCTS across all terminals by 16Z-18Z which will
persist through late evening before waining to VCSH through the
overnight hours. Light and variable winds will become southwest to
westerly between 6-9 knots by the afternoon hours and returning
to light/variable by sunset.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  88  76  87  69 /  60  40  90  70
FMY  89  75  89  73 /  60  30  60  60
GIF  89  74  89  68 /  70  30  80  60
SRQ  89  75  88  71 /  50  40  80  70
BKV  87  73  87  65 /  60  40  90  60
SPG  88  76  87  71 /  50  40  80  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/...42/Norman
UPPER AIR/DECISION SUPPORT...05/Carlisle