Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
231 PM EDT Tue May 19 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Weak ridging east of the Bahamas extends northwestward between
Bermuda and the mid-Atlantic coastline. To the north, a large upper
low continues to spin over western Kentucky with associated
troughing extending south through the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Farther west, sharp ridging extends from Texas northward through the
western Great Lakes and into southern Ontario. This ridge closes off
into a closed upper high by late Wednesday and will be located over
the Great Lakes region. This will set up a Rex Block over the Great
Lakes and New England states to close out the week. This block will
keep the upper low stationary over the Ohio River Valley through
Friday when it gradually fills and lifts to the northeast. With this
low remaining stationary to our north, weak ridging will build over
southern Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico for the remainder of
the week and into the weekend.

On the surface, an area of low pressure moves through the mid-
Atlantic states and extends a weak cold front south over the Florida
peninsula today. Most of the showers have exited the CWA and will
continue to move through southern and southeast Florida this
afternoon. High pressure in the central Gulf of Mexico will build in
behind this front bringing clearing conditions and drier air into
the Florida peninsula starting this evening and continuing for the
next couple of days. A second weak front will progress across
northern FL on Wednesday and Thursday with a slight chance of
showers over northern Florida. High pressure will keep most of west
central and southwest Florida rain-free for the next couple of days.
As the high moves over Florida, it will put us in a sea-breeze
driven pattern starting Thursday and continuing into the weekend.
Daily sea breeze showers and storms will be possible each day in the
afternoon hours, with the highest coverage over the inland counties.
Temperatures will be near seasonal through Thursday, then warming up
a few degrees above average for the weekend and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
The last of the low clouds and showers have moved south of all the
terminals and VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds
will be WSW around 12-15 knots with gusts near 20 knots this
afternoon, then decreasing after 00Z tonight remaining less than 10
knots through the remainder of the period. No other aviation impacts
expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Interaction between a weak front moving through Florida and high
pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico will keep west-southwest
winds around 10-15 knots over the gulf coast waters for the next
couple of days. Conditions improve by the end of the week and into
the weekend as high pressure remains over the area. Winds will
remain 10 knots or less and seas less than 2 feet through the
weekend. No other marine impacts expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Humidity values are forecast to remain above critical levels through
the remainder of the week and into the weekend with no fire weather
hazards expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  72  87  73  89 /   0  10   0  20
FMY  72  87  72  90 /  10  10   0  20
GIF  67  90  69  92 /   0  10   0  30
SRQ  71  85  72  88 /   0  10   0  10
BKV  66  88  68  90 /   0  10   0  20
SPG  71  86  73  87 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT...69/Close