Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

501 
WWUS82 KTBW 121210 AAA
RFWTBW

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
810 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG
WITH BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGH ERC VALUES...

.Dry warm conditions will develop this afternoon across much of
west central and southwest Florida. Relative humidity values are 
expected to drop below 35 percent with east winds around 15 mph 
and ERC values of greater than 27 which could cause dangerous fire
weather conditions.

FLZ056-061-122200-
/O.EXA.KTBW.FW.W.0004.200512T1600Z-200512T2200Z/
Hardee-DeSoto-
810 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG WITH BREEZY EAST WINDS
AND HIGH ERC VALUES...

The National Weather Service in Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL has
issued a Red Flag Warning, which is in effect from noon today to
6 PM EDT this evening. 

* AFFECTED AREA...Hardee and Desoto counties

* WIND...East winds around 15 mph with higher gusts.

* HUMIDITY...several hours of relative humidity values of 30 to
  35 percent. 

* ERC...28 to 30

* IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

FLZ052-155-160-162-165-255-260-262-265-122200-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0004.200512T1600Z-200512T2200Z/
Polk-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Coastal Charlotte-
Coastal Lee-Inland Manatee-Inland Sarasota-Inland Charlotte-
Inland Lee-
810 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG WITH BREEZY EAST
WINDS AND HIGH ERC VALUES...

* AFFECTED AREA...Polk...Coastal Manatee...Coastal Sarasota...
  Coastal Charlotte...Coastal Lee...Inland Manatee...Inland
  Sarasota...Inland Charlotte...Inland Lee counties. 

* WIND...East winds around 15 mph with higher gusts.

* HUMIDITY...several hours of relative humidity values of 30 to
  35 percent. 

* ERC...28 to 45

* IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
234 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020

.DISCUSSION...
U/L trough over the eastern U.S. and the western Atlantic will
rotate northeast out of the area today and tonight. Quasi-zonal
flow will develop across the CONUS Wednesday through Friday. U/L
pattern will begin to amplify over the weekend...with a deep
trough off the west coast of the U.S. inducing a strong ridge
through the plains, and a downstream trough over the western
Atlantic.

At the surface, reinforcing high pressure will build over the Ohio
River Valley and mid Atlantic coast today. This will tighten the
gradient across the Florida peninsula with increasing easterly
winds. The area of high pressure will move over the western
Atlantic on Thursday with the ridge axis extending back over the
southeast U.S. This will allow easterly winds to persist with an
evening surge likely to develop each day briefly enhancing winds
for several hours. Deeper moisture initially south of the forecast
area today and Wednesday, will gradually lift north on Thursday
with a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms developing
mainly over southwest Florida. On Friday, the chance of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms will develop mainly south of I-4.
Easterly boundary layer flow each day will enhance convergence
along the west coast sea breeze boundary which will be the primary
focus for convection.

Slightly drier air aloft will advect over west central and
southwest Florida over the weekend which will decrease areal
coverage of convection. Weaker boundary layer flow will create
best chance of afternoon shower/thunderstorm activity over the
interior.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail today. SCT CU will develop this
afternoon 050-060 with SCT V BKN CIGS 250.

&&

.MARINE...
Increasing east winds this evening will create exercise caution
conditions to develop over the central and southern waters which
will persist through Wednesday morning. Easterly flow will
continue through the remainder of the week with evening surge
developing each day which will create exercise caution conditions
for several hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red flag warning this afternoon for Polk and Lee counties due to
low RH, wind, and high ERC's. Elsewhere, conditions are not
expected to be met, however low afternoon relative humidity values
will occur across much of the region.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  88  66  88  68 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  89  66  89  69 /   0   0  10  10
GIF  86  64  86  66 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  89  66  89  68 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  88  61  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  88  67  88  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/Oglesby
UPPER AIR...99
DECISION SUPPORT...74/Wynn