Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

134 
WWUS82 KTBW 071750
RFWTBW

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
150 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LONG 
DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY 
WINDS AND HIGH ERC VALUES...

.Very dry air has overspread the region today, leading to several
hours of relative humidity values below 35 percent. In addition, 
northerly winds will be around 15 mph with ERC values greater than
27 which could cause dangerous fire weather conditions.

FLZ050-052-056-057-061-151-155-251-255-080000-
/O.EXA.KTBW.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200508T0000Z/
Pinellas-Polk-Hardee-Highlands-DeSoto-Coastal Hillsborough-
Coastal Manatee-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Manatee-
150 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG WITH BREEZY 
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH ERC VALUES...

The National Weather Service in Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL has
issued a Red Flag Warning, which is in effect until 8 PM EDT this
evening. 

* AFFECTED AREA...Pinellas...Polk...Hardee...Highlands... 
  DeSoto...Coastal Hillsborough...Coastal Manatee...Inland 
  Hillsborough...Inland Manatee. 

* WIND...North winds around 15 mph with a few higher gusts.

* HUMIDITY...several hours below 35 percent with minimum 
  relative humidity values dropping to 25 to 30 percent during 
  the afternoon.

* ERC...29 to 45.

* IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

FLZ160-162-165-260-262-265-080000-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200508T0000Z/
Coastal Sarasota-Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Inland Sarasota-
Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-
150 PM EDT Thu May 7 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG WITH BREEZY 
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH ERC VALUES...

* AFFECTED AREA...Coastal Sarasota...Coastal Charlotte... 
  Coastal Lee...Inland Sarasota...Inland Charlotte...Inland Lee. 

* WIND...North winds around 15 mph with some higher gusts.

* HUMIDITY...several hours below 35 percent with minimum 
  relative humidity values dropping to 20 to 25 percent during 
  the afternoon.

* ERC...29 to 45.

* IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
435 AM EDT Thu May 7 2020

.UPDATE...
Will be issuing a Red Flag Warning to also include coastal and
inland Sarasota county, as well as coastal Charlotee and Lee.
Winds will also be around 15 mph in these areas along with the
relative humidities below 35 percent and ERC values at or higher
than 27.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 400 AM EDT Thu May 7 2020/

DISCUSSION...
A series of shortwaves will continue to move through the eastern
U.S. mid/upper level trough over the next few days. The first cool
front has moved south of the region with much drier air moving
into the region today as surface high pressure builds in from the
northwest. By Friday this high will be moving east out into the
Atlantic Ocean as the next cool front approaches from the
northwest. This second front will move south across the region
during Saturday, but once again moisture will remain limited with
only a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm across the
northern Nature Coast with partly to mostly cloudy skies
elsewhere. Saturday night through Monday the second front will
stall across south Florida with shortwave energy moving across the
Gulf of Mexico interacting with the stalled boundary setting up
what looks like will be a decent overrunning rain event for part
of the area Sunday and Sunday night. Highest rain chances remain
across the south especially if the latest ECMWF is correct, but it
still looks like even northern parts of the Nature Coast could see
at least a chance of some rain. This system moves out to the east
Monday and Tuesday, but the stalled boundary will linger to our
south with yet another cool front sinking south into the region
keeping a slight chance to chance of showers and possibly a
thunderstorm across the central and south. On Wednesday the deeper
moisture will shift north as the flow shifts to a more east to
southeast direction as high pressure along the Mid-Atlantic coast
moves east out into the Atlantic Ocean with a few showers and
possibly a thunderstorm across the entire region.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF forecast period.
Northerly winds around 10 knots early this morning will increase to
10 to 15 knots and then shift to northwesterly near the coast with
some higher gusts this afternoon. Winds will then veer around to the
northeast and east tonight and diminish to 4 to 7 knots.

MARINE...
Breezy northwest to north winds behind the front will diminish as
the day progresses and will continue Small Craft Advisory for early
this morning for the northern and central gulf waters with Small
Craft Exercise Caution elsewhere. Winds will veer around to the east
tonight, southeast to south on Friday, and then southwest to west
ahead of the next cool front Friday night. This boundary will move
south and stall south of the waters Sunday with northeast to east
winds around 15 knots or less setting up across the waters into
early next week.

FIRE WEATHER...
Very dry air will overspread the region today with relative humidity
values dropping below 35 percent for several hours and minimum
values falling to between 20 and 25 percent away from the coast.
Northerly winds will generally be between 10 and 15 mph, but across
parts of southwest Florida they are expected to increase to around
15 mph with some higher gusts along with ERC values greater than 27.
Therefore, will be issuing a Red Flag Warning for inland portions of
Charlotte and Lee counties due to this combination. Meanwhile other
isolated locations south of the Interstate 4 corridor could
briefly see instantaneous Red Flag conditions this afternoon.
Winds will quickly veer around to the southeast by Friday bringing
a gradual increase in moisture, but still looks like relative
humidities will dip below 35 percent for a few hours over inland
areas. Moisture will continue to increase over the weekend with no
red flag conditions expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  78  59  82  69 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  84  59  86  68 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  79  56  85  64 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  79  57  83  69 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  78  48  84  64 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  77  63  82  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal
     Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Coastal Sarasota-
     Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Inland Sarasota.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for
     Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out
     20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out
     20 to 60 NM.

&&

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