High Surf Advisory 2, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
322 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

.DISCUSSION...

The models have been consistent with a squall line moving in late
tonight. The gradient really tightens up in advance of the front
with a 55 kt jet just off the surface. The will pile up water
especially from Cedar Key south to about Homossassa. Less water
will pile up south of Homossassa however expect water levels to be
a bit more pronounced near the tops of Old Tampa and Hillsborough
Bays. Conditions are more favorable for severe weather the further
north you go, but our entire area has the potential to see a few
of the storms reach severe levels.

After the front passes Early Friday, strong onshore winds will
continue for several hours. We will extend the gale warning
further south, issue a wind advisory for all but Charlotte and Lee
counties where we will issue a lake wind advisory. All advisories
are in the below section.

A surface ridge moves across the state over the weekend, initially
drying us out then moisture returns. The next front shows up late
next week and while the models bring it closer today than
yesterday it still stalls north of us.

&&

.AVIATION...

Wind will be the issue the next few days with strong surface winds
as well as a strong low level jet. We will be refining the timing
of the squall line during the next few forecast packages.

&&

.MARINE...

Small craft and even larger vessels should just remain in port
starting later today. We will be issuing a Gale Warning for all
but out inshore and far southern nearshore waters where there will
be a SCA.  Conditions improve this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier air will move into the area Friday and winds will subside
late in the day. Much better burning conditions can be expected
Saturday. Sunday moisture will start to return but it will still
be seasonably dry.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  80  60  65  47 /  20 100   0   0
FMY  82  63  69  49 /  10 100  20   0
GIF  84  59  66  44 /  10 100   0   0
SRQ  80  60  68  48 /  20 100   0   0
BKV  83  55  64  41 /  30 100  10   0
SPG  79  60  66  48 /  20 100   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 1 PM EST this afternoon through
     Friday afternoon for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-
     Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     High Surf Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Friday
     for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-
     Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST
     Friday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal
     Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-
     Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Friday for
     Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-
     Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-
     DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-
     Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-
     Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Friday
     for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Inland Charlotte-Inland
     Lee.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for Waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Friday for Coastal
     waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out
     20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20
     to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Friday for
     Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
     out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
     out 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
     Friday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal
     waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Tampa
     Bay waters.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...04/Sobien
UPPER AIR...05/Carlisle
DECISION SUPPORT...19/Hurt

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