Flood Watch 2, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
238 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Broad upper level and surface ridging has been pushed northward over
the mid-Atlantic states as a trough of low pressure over the
northeast Gulf of Mexico moves slowly westward. This has helped keep
an easterly flow over Florida as well as enhanced convection over
the eastern gulf waters this morning. The ridging will stay north of
the area through the remainder of the week and into the weekend as
another tropical wave crosses the Bahamas on Friday and the Florida
peninsula on Saturday. This wave will bring in even more tropical
moisture, which will bring increasing rain and storm chances on
Saturday and Sunday. WPC has placed west central and southwest
Florida in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall on Saturday. Model
PWAT is expected to be in excess of 2.25 inches. When you take these
increasing PWAT values, easterly flow that will result in boundary
collisions with the west coast sea breeze, heavy rainfall in strong
storms in very likely for Saturday afternoon into the evening hours.
This has warranted the issuance of a Flood Watch for coastal
counties from Pinellas County southward to Lee County from Saturday
morning through Sunday morning. As the tropical wave moves into the
gulf by late Sunday into Monday, high pressure builds in from the
north producing an east-southeast wind flow over the region through
the middle of next week. With increasing cloud cover and rain
chances over the next several days, temps will slightly cool down to
around average keeping it below advisory criteria through the
remainder of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Overall VFR conditions will prevail with light easterly winds early
afternoon, then turning onshore later this afternoon with the west
coast sea breeze remaining less than 10 knots. Scattered showers and
storms are already moving into FMY/RSW/PGD/LAL, so will hold TEMPO
TSRA with lower CIGs and gusty winds starting at 18Z and continuing
through 22Z. Farther north for SRQ/TPA/PIE, will hold TEMPO TSRA
with lower CIGs and gusty winds starting at 21Z and continuing
through 23Z.

&&

.MARINE...
A tropical wave in the northeast Gulf of Mexico continues moving
westward. Prevailing northeast through southeast winds around 10-15
knots will continue through the remainder of the week. This will
allow for showers and storms to move into the eastern gulf from the
east late afternoon and into the evening hours. Another tropical
wave moves across Florida and into the gulf on Saturday and Sunday
and will produce scattered to numerous showers and storms to the
gulf waters. Gusty winds, choppy seas, heavy downpours and dangerous
lightning is likely with these passing storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected each day through
end of the week and into the weekend. These showers and storms
combined with high humidities and winds below 10 knots each day will
preclude any fire weather concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  76  91  76  91 /  50  60  40  90
FMY  75  91  75  91 /  30  60  40  90
GIF  75  91  75  90 /  20  60  30  90
SRQ  75  91  75  91 /  50  60  40  90
BKV  73  91  74  91 /  40  60  30  90
SPG  76  91  77  91 /  60  60  40  80

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for
     Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT...24/Hubbard

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
250 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     WATER SPOUT      11 NW BELLEAIR SHORES   28.00N 82.99W
09/10/2020                   GMZ853             FL   PUBLIC

            A FEW REPORTS OF A WATER SPOUT OFFSHORE OF
            CLEARWATER BEACH.

&&