Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
909 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020

.UPDATE...

Thunderstorm coverage is greater than expected over the region.
This activity will subside around midnight and showers and
thunderstorms will become isolated. Otherwise, there were no
significant changes to the forecast for tonight during the evening
update.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [613 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Wednesday]...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected through this evening before
diminishing in coverage overnight. DCAPE is fairly high given the
mid level dry air in place, so gusty winds with downbursts are
possible with the stronger storms this afternoon and evening.
Similar conditions are expected for Wednesday, although slightly
greater deep moisture is expected to allow for slightly greater
coverage of storms. Overnight lows will generally be in the low to
mid 70s with highs near 90.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Night Through Thursday Night]...

An upper level shortwave vorticity maxima is expected to quickly
dive south through the lower Mississippi valley, and around the
near quasi-stationary upper level trough that has remained over
the southeast through much of the work week. This vorticity maxima
is expected to reinforce the main upper level trough, and dig it
further south into the Gulf of Mexico. In the process of
reinforcing the upper level trough to our south and west, our PoPs
will be slightly higher than normal compared to climatology. This
will be supported by a large region of divergence aloft in
association a 40 kt jet at the 200-300mb layer. The main concern
with these storms will be the occasional severe wind gusts with
downbursts associated with thunderstorms. there also remains the
possibility of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding if storms
train over the same regions for several hours at a time. The
widespread precipitation and increased cloud cover in association
with the divergence aloft from the upper level trough will keep
temperatures cooler than normal for this time of the year, with
highs in the mid to upper 80s. Low temperatures will generally
fall into the low 70s through the period as well.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

The aforementioned upper level trough in the previous period is
expected to remain quasi-stationary to our southwest through the
remainder of the weekend, until it lifts to our north and east
during the day Sunday. Given the upper level flow pattern and high
PW values across the region, Friday through Sunday will remain wet
with shower and thunderstorm activity expected to remain
widespread through this period. Rain chances will be greatest over
land during the afternoon, and transition to over the waters
during the late evening and early morning hours. This pattern is
going to be weakly forced by the seabreeze and land-breeze
diurnal boundaries that develop during this time of the year, and
will only be enhanced given the divergence aloft in association
with the previously discussed upper level trough.

By Sunday, the forecast becomes much more uncertain as the two
disturbances in the Caribbean and central Atlantic make their way
closer to the Gulf of Mexico. Depending on the track of both of
the systems (which is still very uncertain at this time), there is
the possibility that either of these systems could bring an
enhanced plume of moisture into our area, and continue the wet
pattern that the region has been experiencing. Given the low
confidence and model uncertainty at this time, PoPs have been
lowered to our normal climatological values for this time of the
year. High temperatures are expected to continue their cool trend
with highs only reaching the upper mid to upper 80s. Lows will
consistently remain in the low 70s.

.AVIATION...

[Through 00z Thursday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail
outside of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Storms are
expected to gradually diminish this evening and redevelop again
on Wednesday. Some storms will produce gusty winds.

.MARINE...

Southwesterly winds will remain less than 10 knots through
Thursday evening before they shift to southerly overnight
Thursday. Given that winds will generally remain less than 10
knots through the period, wave heights will remain low with most
wave sets between 1-2 feet. By the Sunday through Monday time
frame, 3 ft waves may creep into our offshore waters. Outside of
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the next severals days,
favorable boating conditions are expected.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this
evening. A wind shift to the south is expected by Wednesday evening.
No fire weather concerns for tomorrow.

.HYDROLOGY...

A wet pattern is forecast over the next several days, with 7-Day QPF
amounts yielding 1-2.5 inches inland, and around 3 inches along
coastal Big Bend. Isolated areas could see higher amounts where
precipitation persists for long durations. Trends will continued to
be monitored for potential flood concerns, with a tropical
disturbance in the Caribbean being a "wildcard" early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   73  90  71  88  71 /  60  60  40  60  60
Panama City   75  87  75  86  74 /  40  40  50  70  70
Dothan        71  90  70  86  69 /  50  60  50  60  60
Albany        73  90  71  87  71 /  70  60  50  60  60
Valdosta      71  89  71  87  71 /  70  60  30  60  50
Cross City    73  90  72  89  72 /  40  40  50  70  60
Apalachicola  76  88  75  86  74 /  40  40  50  70  70

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Wednesday for
     Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...McD
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Bunker
LONG TERM...Bunker
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Bunker
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...IG3

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
905 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020

GAZ122>125-190145-
Randolph GA-Dougherty GA-Terrell GA-Calhoun GA-
905 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DOUGHERTY...
SOUTHEASTERN RANDOLPH...CENTRAL CALHOUN AND SOUTHWESTERN TERRELL
COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA UNTIL 945 PM EDT...

At 905 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Shellman, or 10 miles north of Morgan, moving southeast at 5 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Morgan, Shellman, Leary, Clarks Mill, Fountain Bridge, Goffs Mill,
Aycock Mill, Martins Crossroads, Herod, Cordrays Mill, Dickey and
Doverel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3162 8433 3143 8457 3143 8460 3169 8474
      3180 8458
TIME...MOT...LOC 0105Z 319DEG 5KT 3169 8461

11

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