Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
212 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020

.NEAR TERM [Through Saturday]...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will
slowly diminish during the overnight hours. Rain chances are still
fairly high into the evening hours across the Florida big bend and
adjacent areas where colliding outflow boundaries may allow
convection to persist for a few hours after sunset. Overnight lows
will generally be in the low to mid 70s.

For Saturday, guidance shows weak upper level troughing persisting
across the region. A gradient in deep moisture is expected to set up
across the forecast area with some drier air temporarily moving into
the northeastern part of the area. Farther south across the Florida
panhandle and big bend, precipitable water values will likely remain
over 2 inches. Thus, the official forecast will show higher rain
chances across the southern half of the area where a tropical
airmass is expected to be in place with some upper level support
given the weak troughing. Afternoon highs will generally be in the
upper 80s to lower 90s.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Night through Monday]...

A mid-level trough over the lower MS Valley will maintain a moist
air mass under southerly flow, which will be lifted by a surface
trough and the sea-breeze circulation. Precipitable Water values
will be around ~2.0 inches, which is around 2 Standard Deviations
above normal. The Probability of Precip will be ~80 pct both days,
which is well above climatology. The heavies precip should occur
on Sunday, with a low to mid-level convergence axis translating
northward across the region. Considerable cloudiness will limit
instability, with high temperatures averaging 3-5 degrees below
seasonal norms, so the main concern is heavy rainfall (see the
hydrology section at the bottom).

.LONG TERM [Monday Night through Friday]...

The mid-level trough will gradually shift northeastward as an
extension of the subtropical high builds into the Gulf of Mexico.
The trend will be for the Probability of Precip to gradually
decrease from south to north, ranging from 70-80 pct on Tuesday to
40-50 pct on Friday (closer to climatology). Deep moisture will
remain across the region, so the potential for heavy rainfall
continues, especially invof any surface boundaries. The severe
weather threat looks to be of the isolated/pulse-type through the
period, which is what we would expect for this time of year. But
this will have to be monitored with proximity of the mid-level
trough and potential for sheared low-level flow, as a slightly
stronger wind field could over perform. As temperatures increase
during the mid to late week above seasonal levels, heat indices in
excess of 105 degrees are possible, with highest confidence over
the FL Panhandle.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Saturday]

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
will slowly diminish this evening after sunset. VFR conditions
are expected outside of convection.

&&

.MARINE...

Light to moderate winds between westerly or southerly are expected
through the weekend and into next week. Seas will be 1 to 2 feet
through Sunday afternoon and 1 to 3 feet from Sunday afternoon
through Wednesday morning. A wet pattern will continue through the
first half of next week. Some storms will have the potential of
becoming severe. Strong or severe storms can quickly lead to
dangerous increases in wind speeds leading to choppy seas.
Waterspouts may also develop quickly this time of year under these
conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Outside of low dispersions this weekend, hazardous fire weather
conditions are not expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A wet and unsettled pattern is forecast over the next several days
as a low pressure system stalls over our area. Pockets of heavy
rainfall are possible throughout the weekend. Currently, there is a
low risk for excessive rainfall (<10%) as depicted by WPCs 3 day
excessive rainfall outlook. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches is possible through the next 5 to 7 days. Isolated amounts
could be higher, especially as the area of low pressure slowly
meanders across our area over the weekend and into next week. The
main impacts would be minor flooding of low-lying and poor drainage
areas.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   73  89  72  88  73 /  50  70  50  80  60
Panama City   77  88  76  87  77 /  30  60  60  80  60
Dothan        72  89  72  86  71 /  30  50  40  80  50
Albany        73  92  74  88  73 /  20  30  30  80  50
Valdosta      72  90  72  86  72 /  30  40  40  80  40
Cross City    72  89  72  89  74 /  50  70  60  80  50
Apalachicola  76  87  76  86  77 /  40  60  70  80  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM...LF
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Oliver

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