Small Craft Advisory 40, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
307 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020

.NEAR TERM [Through Wednesday]...

As Zeta moves west of the area, increased moisture from the Gulf
will continue to result in scattered areas of showers and an
isolated thunderstorm or two through this evening. Rain coverage
will diminish overnight with the best rain chances on Wednesday
across the western third of the area closer to Zeta's influence.
Lows tonight will be quite warm for this time of year with low to
mid 70s. Highs on Wednesday are expected to be in the 80s.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Night Through Thursday Night]...

By Wednesday night, Zeta is expected to be making landfall or just
inland along the eastern Louisiana coastline as a Category 1
hurricane. This complex track where Zeta recurves around a
subtropical ridge over the Florida Peninsula, but merges with an
upper level cut-off low over Texas and Arkansas region has been
honed by model guidance over the last few cycles. Once Zeta makes
landfall, it is expected to move quickly to the northeast through
central Alabama and into north Georgia.

Overall the major impacts expected from Zeta across our area
besides the expected beach hazards of high surf and rip currents are
the threat of tropical storm force winds in our western most
counties, as well as a tornado threat across much of the western
and central areas of our CWA.

Hazardous marine and beach conditions - swells will produce large
wave heights, rough surf, and a high risk of rip currents. Tropical
storm conditions are also possible over our far western waters and
coastal communities.

Winds - tropical storm force winds (at least 39 mph) are possible
across the western row of counties in the Florida Panhandle and SE
Alabama as the center of Zeta moves through the central zone of
Mobiles CWA. Based off of CAM and global model solutions, a few
gusts of 50-60 mph can't be ruled out for Coffee, Dale, and
northwest Walton counties as the center of Zeta makes its closest
approach to these counties.

Severe Weather - A strong southerly to southeasterly LLJ
associated with the eastern side of ZETA is expected to move over
the region Wednesday night into Thursday morning/afternoon. This
LLJ will enhance the shear significantly across our region,
especially as Zeta expands its windfield as it merges with the
midlatitude upper level trough and associated wind field. This
will translate to large looping hodographs in the lowest 3km of
the atmosphere. Given the amount of shear, the slightest amount of
low level instability over the area will allow for the enhancement
of any out rain bands that may develop across our region Wednesday
night into Thursday. Currently SPC has a slight/marginal risk on
Wednesday, and a marginal risk on Thursday. As greater CAM model
guidance comes into agreement, these risk categories and the
threat for tornadoes may increase by tomorrow.

Overall, the weather is expected to deteriorate over the next
24-36 hours, especially across our western counties. As this warm
moist airmass enters the region, temperatures will climb into the
low to mid 80s across the region Thursday, and lows will fall into
the mid 70s Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Cooler/drier conditions are expected to return after the passage
of Zeta and the upper level trough that is expected to clear the
region Thursday evening into early Friday morning. Deep upper
level ridging in conjunction with a surface high over New England
will lead to a few cooler days compared to the previous week;
however, the temperatures expected are close to climatology for
this time of the year. An upper level trough is expected to swing
through the mid-atlantic states early next work week, which will
bring a dying cold front into the region. This cold front is
expected to bring some of the coldest temperatures of this fall
season thus far with lows in the mid to upper 40s expected across
the region Tuesday night. In general, highs behind the front will
be in the low 70s to upper 60s, and lows will remain mostly in the
50s for the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Wednesday]

In general, MVFR conditions are expected
this afternoon and evening with low ceilings. Ceilings may lower
to IFR at times later tonight. Some showers and an isolated
thunderstorm are also possible for the remainder of this afternoon
across the area.

&&

.MARINE...

Boating conditions are expected to continue to deteriorate through
Wednesday and Thursday as swells from Zeta bring large seas and
wave heights to our waters. Winds are also expected to increase
starting tonight, and are expected to quickly ramp up to tropical
storm force across in shore and near shore waters west of St.
George island. A small craft advisory has been issued across all
our waters except our farthest eastern Big Bend coastal waters.
This advisory is in effect through overnight Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Increasing chances of of rain has returned today, and is expected
to continue through over the next several days due to the passage
of Zeta to our west. Overall, precipitation amounts across SE
Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle are expected to
accumulate to around 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts
possible. For regions farther east, these amounts drop off to
around 0.5-1 inch, and lesser amounts across our farther eastern
regions. These totals are not expected to have any impact on any
of our local rivers.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  86  75  83  56 /  20  10  20  60  10
Panama City   74  85  75  82  56 /  10  30  50  70   0
Dothan        71  84  73  81  51 /  40  40  70  70   0
Albany        71  86  74  83  55 /  30  20  30  70   0
Valdosta      71  87  73  84  57 /  30  20  10  60  20
Cross City    72  89  74  86  61 /  30  10  10  50  60
Apalachicola  75  82  76  82  57 /  20  20  20  60  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Bunker
LONG TERM...Bunker
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Bunker
FIRE WEATHER...Bunker
HYDROLOGY...Bunker