Small Craft Advisory 16, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
234 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2020

.NEAR TERM [Today Through Tonight]...

A shortwave over the Lower Mississippi Valley will move through the
Southeast today. A surface low associated with this wave will move
along the Gulf coast and through the Tri-State region later this
afternoon. Currently, a stationary boundary lies across north
Florida, delineated by a band of light shower activity. As the low-
level wind field strengthens ahead of the low today, the front will
lift north spreading the warm sector through the Big Bend into south
Georgia. Expect elevated convection north of the warm-front today,
forced primarily by the upper-level wave. The main threat with these
storms would be the potential for hail. Along and south of the warm
front, the potential for surface based supercell development is more
likely. In this area, damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes will all
be possible. Exactly how far north the warm sector moves inland will
determine just how far inland the multi-mode threat will extend.
This could be dictated by just how much rain develops through the
morning across south GA and southeast AL. The more rain, the less
likely the front is to spread north into GA. By this evening, the
surface low, warm sector, and frontal boundary will move east of the
region with drying conditions in its wake. Lows will fall into the
mid to upper 40s under gradually clearing skies.

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday]...

A cool and dry airmass will filter into the region as surface high
pressure builds in from the northwest behind the exiting cold front.
Highs Friday will range from the mid 60s north to around 70 south
with highs only in the lower to mid 60s on Saturday. Lows will be in
the mid to upper 30s Friday night.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

Surface high pressure centered over the mid Atlantic states will
slide eastward with low level flow becoming onshore by early next
week. This will allow a gradual warming trend through the period
with highs expected to reach the mid to upper 70s by Wednesday.
Rain chances return on Tuesday with the approach of the next
shortwave and cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Friday]

The band of light rain will become more widespread overnight, with
LIFR ceilings spreading north. Near sunrise, another round of
thunderstorms will move into the region from the west, impacting all
terminals through the day. Expect a gradual improvement to MVFR
behind the line of storms.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds and seas will increase to advisory levels today as a strong
cold front approaches and moves across the marine area. Winds
will shift to the north in the wake of the front and remain at
advisory levels through Friday night. Thereafter, winds and seas
will mainly be at cautionary levels at least through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected today, with dry conditions
until early next week. Though a drier stretch is expected, relative
humidities are not forecast to fall below critical levels. Thus, Red
Flag conditions are not anticipated.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Rainfall on Wednesday was heaviest across the northern tier counties
in our region. Measured totals suggest that between 3-4 inches of
rain occurred across portions of Southwestern Georgia and Southeast
Alabama mainly near our CWA border with BMX/FFC. This,
unfortunately, will create a considerable amount of runoff into the
Pea, Chattahoochee, and Flint River basins over the next couple of
days. Additional rainfall today will only make the flood potential
in these areas worse. With the potential for high rainfall rates,
the flash flood watch will continue over Southeast Alabama and
Southwest Georgia.

The forecast for the Kinchafoonee Creek has been increased into the
moderate flood category (16.8 ft crest), and it is possible this may
need to go higher. Forecasts have also been increased for the
Muckalee Creek, which is now expected to reach flood stage. The
combination of these two creeks going higher, and releases from Lake
Blackshear, another round of minor flooding is expected through the
Lower Flint from Albany southward through Bainbridge in the coming
days.

Significant rains in the headwaters of the Pea River above Ariton
will result in the river reaching flood stage again, and it is
possible that in this event, Ariton gets above moderate flood stage.
Since the bulk of the heaviest rain missed the smaller creeks around
Elba, downstream flooding on the Pea below Ariton is not expected.

Releases from Walter F George down the Chattahoochee may need to be
increased in the coming days, but fortunately, the pool elevation is
relatively low, so there is some capacity there to manage inflows.
That being said, it's possible that downstream at Columbia, and then
further down to Woodruff, that minor flood stage could be seen later
this week or weekend.

Rainfall in South Central Georgia has also been sufficient to
suggest that the Ochlockonee and Withlacoochee Rivers could reach
flood stage in the coming days. At this time, only lower end minor
flooding is expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   77  49  68  38  64 /  90  10   0   0   0
Panama City   72  52  68  41  64 /  80   0   0   0   0
Dothan        67  46  65  36  62 /  90   0   0   0   0
Albany        65  46  65  35  61 / 100   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      75  49  67  37  62 / 100  20   0   0   0
Cross City    76  52  70  38  65 /  90  20   0   0   0
Apalachicola  73  52  67  41  63 /  70   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
L...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Dougherty-Early-Irwin-
     Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Terrell-Tift-Turner-
     Worth.

AL...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ this morning to 4
     AM EST /3 AM CST/ Saturday for Apalachee Bay or Coastal
     Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20
     Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to
     Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach
     to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL
     from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Godsey

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1232 AM EST THU MAR 5 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     FLOOD            4 SSW ABBA              31.70N 83.39W
03/04/2020                   IRWIN              GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER JEFF DAVIS PARK ROAD.

0900 PM     FLOOD            2 NE IRWINVILLE         31.67N 83.36W
03/04/2020                   IRWIN              GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER JACKSON ROAD.

0900 PM     FLOOD            3 NNE IRWINVILLE AIRPOR 31.70N 83.42W
03/04/2020                   IRWIN              GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER EISENHOWER ROAD.

1230 AM     FLOOD            1 W MYSTIC              31.62N 83.36W
03/05/2020                   IRWIN              GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BUSSEL POND ROAD UNDERWATER.

1230 AM     FLOOD            2 W WRAY                31.62N 83.10W
03/05/2020                   IRWIN              GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MALLARD ROAD UNDERWATER.

&&

DVD