Alert archive / Florida / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2020

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Tallahassee, FL

February 6, 2020Dixie County, Lafayette County, Florida

NWS Tallahassee, FL issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Feb 6, 2020, 8:36 PM EST for Dixie County, Lafayette County, Florida. It was in force for 22 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Feb 6, 2020, 8:36 PM EST (01:36 UTC)
Expired: Feb 6, 2020, 8:58 PM EST
In force: 22 min
Issued by: NWS Tallahassee, FL
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 0.75 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Dixie County, FL, Lafayette County, FL

The radar

The Moody AFB radar (KVAX), 146 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Feb 6, 8:46 PM EST	TSTM WND DMG	Old Town, FL	SEVERAL CALLS IN DIXIE COUNTY TO REPORT TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 10 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Tallahassee Rgnl, FL (KTLH), launched 00:00Z, 1.6 hours before the alert went out and 152 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 977 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 94 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -322 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 32 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

608 
WUUS52 KTAE 070136
SVRTAE
FLC029-067-070215-
/O.NEW.KTAE.SV.W.0031.200207T0136Z-200207T0215Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
836 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Lafayette County in Big Bend of Florida...
  Eastern Dixie County in Big Bend of Florida...

* Until 915 PM EST.

* At 836 PM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from 6 miles southwest of Obrien to 6 miles northwest of
  Manattee Road to 19 miles south of Horseshoe Point, moving
  northeast at 75 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Cross City, Suwannee, Shamrock, Cross City Airport, Shired Island,
  Old Town, Guaranto Springs, Grady, Hatch Bend, Eugene, Fletcher,
  Yellow Jacket and Fanning Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 2929 8325 2935 8329 3005 8303 2996 8293
      2989 8292 2988 8288 2976 8295 2970 8294
      2970 8296 2963 8297 2958 8295 2959 8294
      2954 8298 2940 8302 2937 8307 2935 8306
      2930 8316 2929 8317
TIME...MOT...LOC 0136Z 234DEG 66KT 2996 8301 2957 8302 2916 8325 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

15-HARRIGAN

1 follow-up statement

396 
WWUS52 KTAE 070158
SVSTAE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
858 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

FLC029-067-070208-
/O.CAN.KTAE.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-200207T0215Z/
Lafayette FL-Dixie FL-
858 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE AND
EASTERN DIXIE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 2929 8325 2935 8329 3005 8303 2996 8293
      2989 8292 2988 8288 2976 8295 2970 8294
      2970 8296 2963 8297 2958 8295 2959 8294
      2954 8298 2940 8302 2937 8307 2935 8306
      2930 8316 2929 8317
TIME...MOT...LOC 0156Z 234DEG 66KT 3019 8265 2980 8266 2939 8290 

$$

15-HARRIGAN

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tallahassee, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Feb 6, 6:48 PM EST, 1 hour 48 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 6, 6:48 PM EST, 1 hour 48 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
648 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Saturday]

A line of +TSRA persists across the eastern portion of the
forecast area, with a mix of SHRA/-TSRA spreading back to the
west. Conditions have generally been IFR/LIFR, though are now
gradually improving from west to east. This trend will continue
as conditions become MVFR tonight, then VFR by early to mid
morning. Winds will stay elevated overnight, with gusty
conditions persisting through tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [319 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Unidirectional flow has allowed for morning convection to become
more linear this afternoon. A lull in deep level forcing and poor
lapse rates are believed to be responsible for the temporary downward
trend in convective intensity. However, a shortwave pivoting through
the northwest Gulf, and a nose of more favorable lapse rates in the
northeast Gulf favor intensification of the line as it continues
east through the Big Bend and south Georgia. The main threat
continues to be damaging straight line winds, with a few tornadoes
being a lesser threat. Non-convective wind gusts over 40 mph should
continue ahead of the line through the remainder of the day. Under
the influence of strong CAA, temperatures will be driven down into
the upper 30s to low 40s for much of the region overnight.

.SHORT TERM [Friday through Saturday night]...

High pressure will build over the area on Friday and move east of
the area this weekend. The upper level long-wave trough will
deamplify on Friday with zonal flow in place across the Gulf Coast
states by Saturday night. Friday will be a chilly day with highs in
the 50s. Friday night could be cold enough for patchy frost in the
normally coldest rural locations. Saturday will see temperatures
rebound to seasonal levels with highs in the 60s.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

High pressure to our east will keep things dry on Sunday. A front
will approach on Monday and then stall north of the region for much
of the week. The proximity of this front and a warm humid air mass
will keep rain chances in the forecast from Monday through Thursday.
A few thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Tuesday.
Temperatures will be above normal through the period with daytime
highs in the 70s each day.

.MARINE...

Occasional gale-force gusts will continue as winds shift to the west
behind a cold front this evening. Winds will decrease on Friday,
dropping below headline criteria by late afternoon as high pressure
moves into the area. Winds and seas will then remain low until
easterly winds increase to cautionary levels on Sunday. Winds will
decrease once again as they become onshore for Monday and Tuesday.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Aside from possible high dispersions the next few afternoons, there
are no fire weather concerns.

.HYDROLOGY...

An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected across the area
today. This results in storm totals of 4 to 6 inches in the western
half of the region and 2 to 4 inches of rain elsewhere. These
rainfall amounts will result in the potential for flash flooding
during the time of heaviest rainfall, particularly across
Southeastern Alabama, Southwestern Georgia, and the Florida
Panhandle. A flash flood watch remains in effect for these areas.

Additionally, river flooding is expected to follow, with at least
minor flooding in the Choctawhatchee, Chipola, Apalachicola basins
as well as the Kinchafoonee Creek expected by the end of the
weekend. Some of these basins may also approach moderate flood
levels, depending on the placement of the heaviest rain. Elsewhere,
rivers should rise into action stage, outside of the Suwannee Basin.

For coastal flood interests, high tide today in Apalachee Bay is
around 130 pm ET, with an additional high tide late tonight. Should
the system be a little slower than predicted, the period of highest
surge could overlay this last high tide and result in moderate
coastal flooding. This is possible, mainly from the Steinhatchee
River southward. That being said, the latest guidance, both PETSS
and deterministic ESTOFS/ETSS data suggest that the maximum water
levels in Apalachee Bay will be between 2 and 3 feet MHHW, which is
on the higher side of our coastal flood advisory criteria, and a
coastal flood advisory is in effect.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the office or
tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   43  57  36  65  41 /  90   0   0  10   0
Panama City   43  56  45  65  48 /  50   0  10   0   0
Dothan        38  53  38  64  42 /  50   0   0  10   0
Albany        42  52  36  62  41 /  90   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      44  55  36  64  41 / 100   0   0   0   0
Cross City    51  59  37  66  42 / 100   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  47  55  44  63  48 /  90   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Gadsden-Inland
     Franklin-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison.

     Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Friday for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
     Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-South Walton.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EST Friday for Coastal Dixie-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal
     Wakulla.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 3 PM EST /2 PM CST/ Friday for Coastal
     Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for Inland Dixie-
     Inland Taylor-Lafayette.

GA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Grady-Irwin-
     Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Mitchell-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-
     Worth.

AL...None.
GM...Gale Warning until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Friday for Apalachee Bay
     or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20
     NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County
     Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Wool
LONG TERM...Wool
AVIATION...Humphreys
MARINE...Wool
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Godsey

In the hours before

Local storm report, Feb 6, 7:18 PM EST, 1 hour 18 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
718 PM EST THU FEB 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 WSW MOODY AFB         30.96N 83.26W
02/06/2020  M51 MPH          LOWNDES            GA   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 0560W 4.6 W MOODY AFB
            (WEATHERSTEM).

0554 PM     TSTM WND GST     SHELL POINT             30.06N 84.29W
02/06/2020  M53 MPH          WAKULLA            FL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION SHPF1 SHELL POINT.

&&

Local storm report, Feb 6, 8:09 PM EST, 27 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
809 PM EST THU FEB 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW MOODY AFB          30.97N 83.20W
02/06/2020  M54 MPH          LOWNDES            GA   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KVAD MOODY AFB.

&&

Local storm report, Feb 6, 8:14 PM EST, 22 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
814 PM EST THU FEB 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NW BUNKER             30.43N 86.14W
02/06/2020                   WALTON             FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN AT JOLLY BAY AND FLUFFY LANDING
            IN THE FREEPORT AREA.

&&

DVD

Local storm report, Feb 6, 8:20 PM EST, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
820 PM EST THU FEB 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HARTFORD                31.11N 85.69W
02/06/2020                   GENEVA             AL   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN GENEVA
            COUNTY.

&&

DVD

Local storm report, Feb 6, 8:28 PM EST, 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
828 PM EST THU FEB 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MIDLAND CITY            31.32N 85.49W
02/06/2020                   DALE               AL   911 CALL CENTER

            DALE COUNTY RECEIVED 14 REPORTS OF TREES
            DOWN AND 5 POWER LINES DOWN IN THE COUNTY.

&&

DVD

Local storm report, Feb 6, 8:34 PM EST, 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
834 PM EST THU FEB 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SALEM                   29.89N 83.41W
02/06/2020                   TAYLOR             FL   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN TAYLOR COUNTY.

&&

DVD

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tallahassee, FL issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 6, 7:49 PM EST	Special Marine Warning	TAE		56 min
Feb 6, 7:54 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Dixie, Lafayette, Taylor	51 min
Feb 6, 10:23 PM EST	River Flood Warning	TAE	Calhoun, Franklin, Gulf, Liberty	42 days
Feb 7, 1:54 AM EST	Wind Advisory	TAE	Bay, Dixie, Franklin, Gulf, Jefferson, Taylor and 2 more	6 hr
Feb 7, 3:41 AM EST	Small Craft Advisory	TAE		21 hr
Feb 7, 2:49 PM EST	River Flood Warning	TAE	Jackson	46 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Florida, 2020 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.